RUSI aprikoi Ukrainan rauhaa hakien referenssiä 2. Maailmansodan ajoista jossa Saksa sai maita, ja solmittiin ‘peace in our time’…
Länsimaat tekevät yli-innokkaasti neuvottelupositiolöysäilyä, Venäjän taas vetäen ehtoihin puolestaan lisää.
Riski, että tehdään löysiä ‘diilejä’, joilla kannustetaan Venäjää jatkamaan hommiaan toistaiseksi ja muutaman vuoden päästä…
Lisäksi voi lisätä ja todeta että löysäily kannustaa muita maailman diktaattoreita.
In spite of suffering massive casualties and losing vast quantities of equipment (and suffering a reverse in Syria), he may prefer to continue the war. In the past few months, the Russians have been making gradual progress in Donbas, and the extent of Ukraine’s manpower problem has become increasingly apparent. Ukraine needs peace (or even a pause) far more than Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky is under more domestic political pressure than Putin.
In fact, the biggest motive for Putin agreeing to a truce or a pause would be to give Trump a result which he could trumpet at home as a success. After a period of relative peace, Putin might well calculate that Trump would be even more reluctant to get involved once the war starts again (as it surely will).
A lazy consensus seems to have emerged in the West, based more on hope than serious analysis, that Putin will agree to stop his further incursions into Ukraine
Trump has a poor record of peacemaking. His Doha Agreement with the Taliban (behind the back of the Afghan government) was as feckless a piece of diplomacy as any in history, and his negotiations with North Korea came nowhere near a denuclearising deal.
Already an asymmetry has emerged in the negotiating positions for any putative talks with Putin. Even before the talks have begun, NATO countries have been taking demands off the table. So already it is widely accepted that Putin can keep Crimea, de facto if not de jure . It is taken for granted that Ukraine will have to withdraw from the Kursk salient. And it is certain that Ukraine will not be granted NATO membership. Joe Biden has made that clear from the outset, and Trump is likely to take the same view. Hungary and Slovakia (and possibly Austria) would also resist any such idea.
Russia has taken huge casualties and would not be deploying North Korean troops unless it was desperate. The West would be able to drive a hard bargain if it were sending tough signals by rearming. Instead, the opposite is happening
Nato on jo antanut Putinille periksi, tutkija varoittaa – Suomi ja Puola ovat Euroopan ”ainoat vakavasti otettavat sotilasmahdit” Nato on jo antanut Putinille periksi, tutkija varoittaa – Suomi ja Puola ovat Euroopan ”ainoat vakavasti otettavat sotilasmahdit” | Kauppalehti
Moni foorumissa jo tietävät että Scholz on puhdas politiikko. Kaikki on vain hänen oman vallan ja intressien pitämiseen tarkoitettu. Merz on kyl mielestäni myös politiikko, mutta ainakin vaikuttaa paremmalta tällä hetkellä kuin Scholz. Merz saattaa olla Venäjän kanssa tiukempi ja Ukraina-myönteinen. Ainakin näin hän on signaloinut.
Major sanctions update from the US and UK, targeting Russian oil revenues.
