Jotain hullua tapahtuu tosiaan tuolla Euroopan spot markkinoilla. Uusiutuvan dieselin markkinahinta on noussut nyt 60% parissa viikossa ja siitä saa nyt jotain 1200€/t myyntikatetta tämän päivän hinnalla. Valtavasti rahaa olisi tarjolla:
Europe biofuel, certificate prices surge amid plant outage, policy changes
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – European renewable diesel, biodiesel and renewable certificate prices have surged to long-term highs this week amid a perfect storm of biorefinery outages and policy changes, ending a prolonged slump that weighed on producer margins over the past year.
Prices for renewable diesel, biodiesel and certificate prices across the region have jumped higher after a shutdown at Europe’s largest biorefinery last Friday added a fresh jolt to an already bullish-looking environment. The jump has been accompanied by an equally dramatic burst in ticket prices with 2024 compliance HBE-Gs rising to €17.50/GJ on Wednesday, up from €12.10/GJ a week earlier, while a deal was reported at €22.50/GJ Thursday – levels described as “crazy” and “smoking hot” by market participants. Prices for German and UK renewable fuel tickets have seen similarly chunky increases, hitting their own series of record highs over the course of the week.
Production crisis
The emergency shutdown of Neste’s 1.3 million mt per year renewable diesel biorefinery in Rotterdam on Friday – Europe’s largest – has been the immediate supply-side trigger for the rally but several other large plants are also currently offline. Sources told Quantum that the Finnish oil and biorefiner has been forced to issue force majeures on HVO deliveries and Neste last week lowered its annual renewable diesel sales guidance by 200,000 mt due to the stoppage.
In addition to Neste, Eni confirmed its 750,000 mt per year Gela biorefinery in Italy has been offline for planned maintenance in recent weeks while the company installs a sustainable aviation unit. Sources told Quantum that Eni’s Venice refinery is also offline. The Italian oil major did not confirm the outage but previously announced a plan to upgrade the site’s capacity from 360,000 mt to 560,000 mt annually in 2024.
TotalEnergies said last week it was shutting down units at its La Mede site, which can produce 500,000 mt per year of renewable diesel, although it did not confirm whether the work affected units processing fossil or renewable feedstocks, or both.
The outages – and price rises – are likely a boon for those producers still able to lift capacity.
Market participants speculated that renewable diesel and biodiesel producers are likely ratcheting up utilization rates to capture higher margins, after a long period of squeezed margins that had prompted numerous run cuts and even shutdowns over the last year.
Policy changes
The emergency shutdown at Neste Rotterdam coincided more broadly with a swathe of policy changes and trade defence measures adopted by Europe that have tightened physical biofuel fundamentals.
Sitten uutisessa kerrataan vielä nämä viimeaikaiset politiikkamuutokset, jotka siis ovat:
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EU:n tuontitullit kiinalaiselle biopolttoaineelle
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UK harkitsee myös vastaavia tuontitulleja kiinalaisia ja muitakin vastaan
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Saksan ylimääräisten tikettien käytön keskeytys vuosille 2025-2026
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Alankomaat esitti viime viikolla paljon korkeampia päästövähetystavoitteita RED-III transpositiossaan
Lähteenä tämän päivän Quantum Biofuels Daily uutiskirje.