Ainakin se tossa laskelmassa menee pieleen, että molybdeenin hinta per lb on nimenomaan 18$-20$, mutta harkkona. Ei malmina kallion sisällä. Tuo tieto sinänsä itsellekin on uusi, mutta ko. varannon arvo lienee jossain 0,2-0,3$ / lb siihen asti, että se on louhittu.
Disclaimer: Arvioni Mo:n hinnasta on laskettu kuparin hintaan suoraan verraten - harkko vs malmissa oleva metalli, eikä perustu mihinkään faktaan. Selvää on kuitenkin, että se on selvästi pienempi kuin 20$/lb
Jos kupari on reilu neljä taalaa per pauna pörssissä niin maassa oleva kuparipauna on luokkaa 10 senttiä, tietämättä tarkemmin veikkaan että molyssä lienee about samankaltaiset suhdeluvut.
Vuoden alussa käynnistettiin porat. Valmiina N044, S20, S21.
Jestas sentään mitä sieltä tulee!
Katsokaas reikä S18, about 500 metriä hyvälaatuista kamaa suoraan pinnoista!
Näistä tuloksista tuli muuten ihan hippasen lisää paunoja mineraalivarantoon joka toivottavasti tulee 2kk sisään.
Oli maininta, että q2 tulee. Aiemmin vielä puhuttiin late q1/q2. Saa nähdä kuinka pitkään venyy, mutta noiden tulosten jälkeen jaksaa odottaa.
Varantoestimaatti on arvioitu Q1:n loppuun, PEA Q2 loppuun.
What is the biggest risk for Oroco (and shareholders) at this stage of development?
Nättiä! Onneksi nää hyvät uutiset näkyy aina kurssissa 
Political, I’ve said this from the start, theres no other major risk. All other risks are minor compared to politics.
Tänään julkistettujen reikien tuloksien läpikäyntiä Malten kanssa
In case of political risk I guess it would be some announcement from the Mexican government that would probably tank the stock price with 50%+ in a short time?
Central government/president can try to do something but Mexico has a strong constitutional protection for miners and also the regional/state governments have their say.
Not to mention the NAFTA agreement which protects US and Canadian companies operating in Mexico.
Onko @Loflock näkemystä näistä uusista tuloksista? Näin totaaliselle amatöörille more is more, mutta mites asiaa paremmin tunteville?
Hyvä kirjoitus kanadan foorumeilta:
Eli kun kaikki on kiinnostunut lähinnä gradesta niin unohtuu CAPEXin ja OPEXin merkitys firman arvolle.
So then it sound like the political risk is quite low. However it could if happened, have the most negative influence on the share price I guess.
Then what are the other more minor risks? Is it that Oroco will run out of money and will need to raise more money for drilling and thereby dilute existing shareholders?
Could another risk be that the future drill holes will not be that good and no major miner wants to buy Oroco? What will happen with oroco then? Will another smaller miner with more money buy oroco for scrap and continue to develop the project?
And what about a reccesion that will tank the copper price? in that scenario I don’t think many big miners are interested in buying copper assets.
As this is quite probable, I don’t consider it (one offering) as a risk. You have to take probable dilution into consideration if you invest in Oroco. What is unknown is the amount of dilution. Oroco has said they have enough cash to finish drilling and complete the PEA. If the sale takes a long time then they might have to do multiple offerings to fund the sale. This might be a problem later.
The known/verified reserves should be enough for a decent buy out. Everything else on top of it is a bonus.
It takes years to ramp up the production, so near term recession should not matter. Copper consumption is expected to rise for the foreseeable future. Higher rates could affect the potential buy out price as money becomes more expensive.
To me the biggest risk (outside political risks) is that the PEA is weak/mediocre and doesn’t attract buyers. We know this isn’t a superior grade project so the business case can’t handle unexpected costs.
Thanks. So as I understand you are saying that a buyout is very likely. I have a hard time to understand how this buyout could be less than todays shareprice (0.80 cad).
Seems like a low risk entry price for the investor?
When is a buyout expected to happen? 2023 or 2024?
2023 would be very optimistic - not totally impossible but very unlikely. So 2024 is a much safer bet.
But who knows, if there’s some desperate buyer it could happen sooner rather than later, then again if there’s a major downturn in economy etc, it could go beyond 2024.
