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Key downside risks
Macroeconomic uncertainty; failure to win high-volume licensing deals; the emergence of new competing technologies; failure to successfully manage the developer and partnership ecosystem; and bottlenecks for customers’ production volumes from component shortages.
Estimate and valuation changes
Qt reported net sales and EBITA 10% and 16% below Modular Finance consensus, respectively. The main culprit for weakness was the macro-sensitive distribution license sales, which we find somewhat unsurprising given the recent weak newsflow from the automotive sector (~20% of sales). However, we consider the prevailing headwinds to be temporary and find no reason to be concerned about Qt’s medium-term growth outlook that builds on structural demand drivers, product competitiveness and a highly scalable business model. We find yesterday’s -18% share price reacti on overly harsh, with the risk of a 2024 top-line profit warning now reflected in the price. We reiterate Buy and lower our DCF- and multiples-based target price to EUR 91 (97).
