Nordea julkaisi päivitetyn Tokmanni-analyysinsä. Suositus pysyy PIDÄ-tasolla, Fair value nousee 13,10 euroon (edellinen: 10,70 €).
Key upside risks: Tokmanni could post higher-than-expected LFL growth and increase its gross margins further. An increasing share of high-margin products, e.g. clothing and other private-label products, could support earnings going forward. A sudden recovery in consumer confidence could affect Tokmanni’s sales and earnings. In a downturn, the company could increase its market share considerably without hurting its gross margin. The integration of and synergies from the Dollarstore acquisition could also offer more upside than expected.
Key downside risks: Gross margins and earnings could be negatively affected if Tokmanni refrains from increasing its selling prices to defend market share. Its product assortment remains sensitive to weather. Consumers could shift from general discounters to specialised discount stores. A general downturn in the economy could have an impact on performance, as witnessed by the recent profit warning. Ambitious growth targets could operationally increase risks due to more challenging category management. The Dollarstore acquisition increases leverage, and integration synergies might not be achieved.