SEB:n päivitys, fair value rangea nostetaan hieman vastaavalle tasolle jossa se oli pre-osarilaskua ennen. Eli nyt 11,8-13,2 eur/osake
Vuosille 2025 & 2026 EPS (adj) 1,32 eur, ja 2027 1,41 eur
Soon updated financial targets
Aktia proposed a DPS of EUR 0.82 for 2024, which represents a yield of 8.4%. Given that Aktia remains some 330bps overcapitalised we expect that Aktia will continue to have a very attractive yield in the upcoming three years. The CMD at end of February will be important and we expect the financial targets to include a profitability, and absolute earnings target, as well as more clarity on excess capital.
Attractive yield of 8.4%
Aktia reported a 3.5% beat on NII during the fourth quarter driven by a combination of volume, margin and timing effects. We foresee, similar to Aktia’s guidance, that NII will decline slightly during 2025 but remain of the impression that margins and positive volume development could offset the decline during the second half of the year. Moreover, Aktia reported some clear one-offs, in our view, in the quarter amounting to EUR 26.4m. Adjusting for this the underlying result was strong across the P&L. Additionally, Aktia had a pay-out ratio amounting to 60% of comparable EPS which resulted in a proposed DPS of EUR 0.82. Based on this morning’s share price Aktia yields a very attractive 8.4%. Given Aktia’s overcapitalisation, we put in another DPS of EUR 0.96 for both 2025 and 2026 taking the yield north of 9.5%.Focus on upcoming CMD
Another positive surprise was that Aktia invited to a Capital Markets Day on February 27 in Helsinki. According to the invitation Aktia will release updated financial targets and in the preview we wrote that we hope Aktia’s new targets will include a 2028 PBT above EUR 130m, comparable ROE of >14% and excess capital will be distributed via dividends and buy-backs.Estimates slightly up
We hike EPS slightly for future years and hike the upper range in our valuation to EUR 11.8-13.2 (11.8-13.0).
