Myös SEB päivittittänyt osarin jälkeen,
-valution range nyt 11,1…12,5 eur
-EPS-uran arvioidaa nousevan 1,04 (2024) → 1,18/1,26/1,36 (2025/6/7)
-em voi sitten suhteuttaa päivän kurssiin 9,42 eur
A weak quarter, but action being taken
Aktia reported a weak Q1, with all key revenue lines below consensus. NII and fees were 5% and 3% below respectively, with lower rates and the market as drivers. In contrast, costs were 3% better, although loan losses were 45% above consensus. To reach its long-term targets, management has launched a strategic acceleration programme, primarily focused on growth. The near-term focus is the Q1 miss, but the plan offers future potential.
Revenue under pressure
The large NII miss was directly driven by lower EURIBOR rates, and without loan growth there were no offsets. Aktia does not provide details about or impacts from its hedge, but given an 8% q/q Q1 NII decline, we conclude the hedge impact must be limited. Net AUM fell by 4% q/q, broadly equally split by negative flow and performance. There were again large domestic institutional outflows, but we are more concerned that Private Banking too experienced outflows again, as it is a clear focus area for Aktia. Costs were very good in the quarter but loan loss provisions were elevated, driven by corporate loans.The Momentum plan
To reach the long-term objectives set out in the February 27 2025-29 plan, Aktia launched an acceleration programme aimed at having a real impact within the next two years. The plan’s 10 streams focus on growth more than costs as a driver for profit. We welcome the initiative and believe the focus on premium and private banking in particular is the key to Aktia’s success. As we have argued many times before, we also believe Aktia’s size has an impact on its ROE.We cut our estimates
We cut 2025E-27E EPS by 4-6% with NII, fees and life all drivers. We also reduce our cost assumptions but raise loan loss provisions somewhat. As a result, we lower our valuation range to EUR 11.1-12.5 (11.8-13.2). At 7.0x 2027E EPS, Aktia is trading below its peers.
