Hyvä tilannekuvaus Ukrainan sisäministerin neuvonantajalta Anton Heraštšenkolta.
Kopioin alle koko xiitin.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1812156878887023011?t=sQkYlD_I3Hip43WIL8ILsw&s=19
Where we are now and what is happening concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine:
Putin is not changing his conditions: to stop the war, he demands that Ukraine give up Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea. Ukraine must officially renounce NATO membership, and the West must lift its sanctions against Moscow;
Putin makes his demands based on the information provided to him by his entourage. This information does not correspond to reality. For example, Putin believes that Ukraine loses 40 to 50 thousand soldiers killed every month and is surprised that Ukraine has not yet capitulated. Based on such false information, Putin builds up his expectations;
Ukraine rules out the possibility of giving up territory and agreeing to Putin’s terms;
The NATO summit was not historic. There was a declarative statement that Kyiv’s path to NATO membership is “irreversible”, but Ukraine did not receive any specific security guarantees. The situation of strategic uncertainty will continue at least until November;
Russia is stepping up missile and bomb attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, primarily the energy system, and has also moved to straight terror with attacking a children’s hospital. Putin’s goal is to force the Ukrainian population to capitulate or abandon their cities in the winter;
While the world is busy with football, the Olympics, and elections, Russia will step up its attacks to be in a winning position after November;
A ban for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Russian military targers deep inside Russian territory has not been lifted. This means that Ukraine cannot protect its cities, infrastructure, and population from Russian missiles and glide bombs;
Air defense systems are useless against the aerial guided bombs (glide bombs) that Russia uses to attack Ukrainian troops, cities and settlements in the east of the country. These bombs weigh between 500 and 3,000 kilograms and are launched from Russian military aircraft from Russian territory;
Russia is getting more and more effective in circumventing Western air defense systems. Russian missiles are equipped with additional defenses, including radars and flares;
Ukraine is looking forward to receiving the long-awaited F-16 fighter jets, which will provide some protection against glide bombs. It has been stated that they will be available to Ukraine this summer. Bloomberg reported that six aircraft will be delivered by the end of the summer and 20 by the end of the year. At the same time, Russia has about 300 combat aircraft. 20 or even 50 planes for Ukraine will not turn the tide in the skies;
For most of the front line in Ukraine, the Ukrainian army is on the defense. Russia is slowly advancing in Donetsk region. In Kharkiv region, Russia has been stopped but is trying to regroup and increase pressure. The threat of an offensive from the north remains;
Ukraine’s army is inferior to Russia’s in terms of manpower and weapons, supplies of Western military aid are not timely and insufficient. Russia’s population is 144 million, more than three times that of Ukraine;
Russia has increased military production and receives arms from North Korea. Russia has established 24/7 weapons production in Russian factories that outstrip the production of Ukraine’s Western allies. North Korea will send “labor force” to keep Russia’s military factories running smoothly;
The Ukrainian army remains stable and highly capable and can maintain combat effectiveness even in the long term if Western arms deliveries continue;
Ukraine, using naval drones, mines, and Western missiles, has damaged about half of 80 warships and continues to destroy the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine’s attacks have forced the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea to the Russian Novorossiysk port;
Ukraine has successfully attacked Russian oil depots and disrupted Russia’s military logistics chain;
As of today, what can be said for sure is that the biggest war in Europe after World War 2 is still going on. No one can be certain how events will develop. The whole world is waiting for the elections in the USA.
The situation of strategic uncertainty will continue at least until November.
strikes with 
Storm Shadows or 
SCALPs into russian territory? Even though 
has forbidden these Yes, in addition to restricting the weapons that it provides itself, 
