It’s a good question but a tough one. For instance, Singapore was built from 2007 to 2010, then expanded from 2019 to 2023. The same story with Rotterdam: 2-3 years for the first phase, and now the expansion with similar length like Singapore. It took 2-3 years to transform Martinez refinery. But when Neste speaks about Porvoo full transformation, I understand they were speaking about the decade (mid-2030s) to full transformation… until this capex was stopped or postponed by the new CEO. When I read about different SAF start-ups, they speak about 1-3 years, but I guess there is a different length to build smaller or larger refinery…
In 2025Q1, Neste produced 1.08mt of RD/SAF at 79% utilisation rate. So, I simply calculate that the current Neste’s potential at 100% utilisation rate is 1.37mt per quarter or 5.5mt per year… That’s exactly what Neste says in their reports: their current capacity is 5.5mt per year, with an aim to increase it to 6.8mt in 2027 with an expansion in Rotterdam… So, the Swedes may freely increase their mandates: Neste will fullfill their needs in full. 