To understand PPP deals and how they often work, a look to Denmark and Norway can be a good tip. Here grid providers often pay heavy industry based on how fast they can scale up to eat up demand (prevents curtailed energy from their 99% RE grid in Norway). The faster you can increase demand*hours, the better the rebates for the power delivered.
While Tesla promise 7c/kWh, Nikola are using 4c/kWh for their electricity.
For Tesla to be able to push the prices down this much, they would have to add battery buffers to all Tesla Semi DC fast chargers. This technology would have to be tested first, so some SuC stations should at some point get the promised “off-grid solar and battery bank setup” Elon told all SuC stations to have in 2017. Without this, then Tesla Semi is not made and does not fit heavy and long haul trucking.
But the problem with PPP deals is you have to offer a fixed increase in demand of X hours. A battery-buffer setup will never be able to increase demand for as many hours electrolyzers can with the Nikola H2 storage. They are built to support 32ton H2 in 24 hours, while they start with 8ton storage at first. But depending on RE closeby sharing the grid, those stations may be built bigger to get cheaper PPP deals.
32 ton storage is 1,27GW in 24 hours max. To offer the same increased demand in storage for batteries, then they would need a storage battery capable of storing energy enough for 1,278 Tesla Semi’s per station… Never - ever - going - to - happen. Storage at those numbers are at least 10x less expensive through H2 than it is batteries.
I also assumed to use 100% SoC on batteries. The reality is you don’t. You utilize around 40-50% to keep SoC% around the middle 50% (3.9V) where the batteries have least internal resistance to keep costs down and longevity up.
TLDR: Tesla will have to show off grid-storage at SuC stations before Tesla Semi can compete vs Nikola H2 products for heavy and long haul. And Tesla will never be able to get as cheap PPP deals Nikola can have per station. Those PPP deals will also depend on station-layout and how much demand a station can take for X hours. So until this is proven first, Tesla Semi is just a competitor vs Diesel and Nikola TRE BEV for short haul where you slowly charge over night at depots.
Now remember that a Nikola station is both a H2 and a DC fast charging station. Electrolyzers will be able to scale down when DC fast chargers are at demand, and scale up to support the PPP fixed uptime per year when no one is fast charging. A Tesla Semi heavy/long haul DC only station will have bad utilisation for its power input, while a Nikola station can have up to 100% utilization if the demand is needed.
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