Nokia-ketju. Mitä ajatuksia teillä on Nokiasta? (Osa 1)

Ericsson Q3 aamulla klo 8.00

Tässä Infrontin konsensus.

Liikevaihto 57,4 M SEK (Networks 40,6 M SEK)

Bruttokate 22,6 M SEK (Networks 17,2 M SEK)

EBIT 6,7 M SEK (Networks 7,0 M SEK)

EBIT-marginaali 11,6 % (Networks 17,3 %)

Tulos ennen veroja 5,78 M SEK

EPS 1,35

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Patenttiloukkauksesta kyseessä olevassa tapauksessa mittasuhteet ja kokonaisarvio huomioiden, määräisin tuomarina ”Applet” eli 2 miljardia USD rangaistusmaksua Lenovon maksettevaksi Nokialle ja osapuolet sopimaan korvaukset patentin käytöstä kuten länsimaalaisissa oikeuden päätöksissä ja varsinkin Saksan oikeusistuimissa on ollut kutyymi.

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Kieltämättä rohkea veto, mutta Ruotsilla ja Kiinalla on ollut nokkapokkaa monesta asiasta jo pitemmän aikaa. Jo tammikuussa Ruotsin yleisradio SVT raportoi seuraavasti:

" SVT Nyheter har tidigare redovisat forskning från svenska Utrikespolitiska institutet som visar att Kina bedriver en intensiv propagandakampanj riktad mot Sverige. En FN-konferens om mänskliga rättigheter på Fotografiska i Stockholm blev inställd efter påtryckningar från Kina, visade en SVT-granskning. Human Rights Watch tar upp Kinas agerande mot Sverige i samband med utdelningen av PEN:s Tucholskypris till den svenskkinesiske bokförläggaren Gui Minhai, vilket ledde till hot om handelsrestriktioner." Rapport: Kina motarbetar mänskliga rättigheter även i Sverige | SVT Nyheter

Uskoisin, että Ericssonissa ollaan hyvinkin huolestuneita nyt Kiinan vastareaktiosta. Juuri tästä syystä on sääli, ettei EU-tasolla sovittu sitovasti Huawein kieltämisestä koko EU:ssa ja siten vältettäisiin Kiinan vastareaktiot yksittäisiin rohkeasti toimiviin maihin.

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On väärin.

edit: hieman muokattu

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Oho, kiitos tästä. Harvoin saa näin reaaliaikaista tietoa.

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Kilpailija Nokialle vai ei?

QUALCOMM JUMPS INTO 5G INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET WITH BASE STATION CHIPS

Qualcomm Inc on Tuesday said it will produce chips for 5G telecommunications networking gear, marking the first entry by a major American technology company into a market dominated by European and Chinese firms.

San Diego-based Qualcomm is already the largest supplier of chips for mobile phones, including the modem chips that connect handsets to newer 5G wireless data networks capable of faster speeds than LTE networks. But the market for the 5G base stations and other infrastructure purchased by telecommunications carriers has been dominated by players such as Nokia, Ericsson and, before the U.S. government moved to cut off its ability to secure semiconductors, Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [HWT.UL]. Qualcomm does not plan to challenge those players directly. Instead, it is aiming to potentially become a supplier of chips to those companies and others as the technology in 5G base stations shifts.

Today, 5G base stations are much like early cellular phones, where a single player designs the entire device from top to bottom, ordering up custom chips and writing custom software. But the smart phone sector eventually exploded when Qualcomm began supplying industry standard phone processor chips and Google’s Android operating system enabled hundreds of phone makers to enter the market by basing their devices on the Qualcomm-Android combination.

Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm’s president, said a similar trend is now playing out with 5G base stations, where companies like Microsoft Corp and others are working to write software that will run “virtualized” 5G base stations. Qualcomm wants to supply the chips for those stations to both existing makers and any new entrants. “I think we have the advantage in thinking about the next generation infrastructure. We don’t have to worry about any legacy products, so we can start designing something from scratch,” Amon told Reuters in an interview.

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Nokia vaan ostamaan Qualcommin siruja tukiasemiinsa, jos niiden käyttö on halvempaa kuin omien tai muiden valmistajien tekemien käyttö. Näin Nokia toimii jo muutenkin. Nokia’s 5G Smart Node portfolio will be powered by the Qualcomm 5G RAN platform for small cells (FSM100xx)

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VERIZON PUTS PRIVATE 5G IN FOCUS WITH NOKIA, MICROSOFT PARTNERSHIPS

Today Verizon said it will offer private 5G network solutions to enterprises in Europe and Asia-Pacific with Nokia, using the Finnish vendor’s Digital Automation Cloud (NDAC) tools. The move to help international business customers deploy dedicated 5G networks expands on Verizon’s network-as-a-service (NaaS) strategy, and points to growing enterprise interest in private cellular networks.

Verizon’s private 5G managed service solution for global enterprises consists of “the Nokia NDAC (core, radio antenna), coupled with Verizon’s existing portfolio of managed WAN and LAN services, as well as professional services to define exact requirements for a given use case.”

When it comes to spectrum for private 5G networks internationally, business customers will apply for their own spectrum licenses, Crawford said via email, but “Verizon’s professional services team will work closely with customers and advise them on any procedures required.”

In a recent interview with FierceWireless, Nokia’s head of business development for private wireless Dustin LaMascus said about half of its private wireless sales are direct, while the other 50% are indirect, either through carriers or smaller partners including local systems integrators.

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On se kumma tämä Nokia, kun ei vain meinaa jaksaa nousta. Taas laskeltu nysessä vastoin kaikkea loogisuutta (omasta mielestäni). Hyviä uutisia on ja tulee, on verrokkeihin kai halpa jne… Kuka siellä oikein enää viitsii myydä? Vai treidataanko siellä vaan isosti…

Onko joku tutkinut tarkemmin tuota miten Noksu nysessä tuntuu päivästä toiseen laskevan kun muut nousee ja päin vastoin = menee vastavirtaan? Joku kuva olis kiva.

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JuhaHutin kommentilla, jossa on Tommi Uiton twiitti, on enemmän tykkäyksiä inderesin foorumilla kuin Tommi Uiton twiitillä twitterissä.

:smiley:

Saa liputtaa.

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Huokuuko tämä viesti vähän sellaista suhteiden ”palauttamista”? Tarkoitan siis tuota all in kohtaa - onko Verizonella ajateltu että Nokia on all in vain T-Mon kanssa? Nyt Uitto tavallaan muistuttaa ettei se ihan niin mene.

Mutta kun menee sanojen taakse, myönteinen twiitti luonnollisesti. Jos asiakkuus olisi menetetty (joka siis ei ole) ja saataisiin armopaloja, tuskin näin kommentoisi. Tässähän on nyt selkeästi koukku et markkinat voivat tulevaisuudessa yllättyä tästä asiakkuudesta.

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Erkin Q3 tulos tulee tänään ? Heti aamusta ?

Kyllä, tässä odotukset:

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Hetki sitten suljettu äänestys Ericssonin pörssikurssin reaktiosta tulosjulkistuksen jälkeen. Kylläpä jännittää. :slight_smile:

Kyyti voi olla kylmää tai hottia. Toivon hartaasti, että Ericsson kertoo positiivisista investointinäkymistä operaattorikentässä. Se voi olla jopa itse tulosta paljon merkittävämpi ajuri Nokian ja Ericssonin pörssikursseille. Muistissa on vielä Cienan varoittelut, joille pitäisi saada vastapainoa.

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Ja tässä olisi Ericsson:

Ericsson : Ericsson reports third quarter results 2020
Third quarter highlights

· Sales adjusted for comparable units and currency increased by 7% YoY mainly driven by 5G sales in Mainland China. Reported sales were SEK 57.5 (57.1) b.
· Gross margin excluding restructuring charges improved to 43.2% (37.8%) with margin improvement in all segments. Reported gross margin improved to 43.1%
(37.7%).
· Operating income excluding restructuring charges and items affecting comparability in Q3 2019, improved to SEK 9.0 b. (15.6% operating margin) from SEK
6.5[1] b. (11.4% operating margin) driven by Networks. Reported operating income SEK 8.6 (-4.2) b.
· Networks reported sales increased by 6% YoY, with an increase of 13% adjusted for comparable units and currency. Operating margin excluding restructuring
charges was 22.7% (18.4%).
· Net income was SEK 5.6 (-6.9[1]) b.
· Free cash flow before M&A was SEK 3.9 (4.5) b., including a capital injection into the Swedish Pension Trust of SEK -2 b. in the quarter. Net cash Sep 30,
2020, was SEK 41.5 (37.4) b.

[1] Q3 2019 was impacted by cost provisions of SEK -11.5 b. related to the investigation by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the
United States Department of Justice (DOJ) as well as a refund of social security costs of SEK 0.9 b.

Planning assumptions highlights (please see the quarterly report for complete planning assumptions)

· The YTD results strengthen the Company’s confidence in delivering the Group targets for 2020. The financial targets for 2022 remain.

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Nokia valittiin Telian 5G-yhteistyökumppaniksi Suomessa ja standalone 5G -runkoverkon toimittajaksi useilla eri markkinoilla Nokia valittiin Telian 5G-yhteistyökumppaniksi Suomessa ja standalone 5G -runkoverkon toimittajaksi useilla eri markkinoilla | Kauppalehti

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Comments from Börje Ekholm, President and CEO of Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC)

Amid the continuing global Covid-19 pandemic and with more than 80% of our people working from home, we keep on executing on our focused strategy. We continue
to win footprint in several markets leveraging our competitive 5G portfolio. The gross margin[1] improved in all segments in the third quarter and reached 43.2%
(37.8%), the highest since 2006. With the acquisition of Cradlepoint, expected to close in Q4, we are making further progress in our strategy to build an
enterprise business. Covid-19 has so far had limited impact on our business, but we are closely monitoring any signs of a change in the situation. The year to
date results strengthen our confidence in delivering on the 2020 Group target.

Networks grew organically[2] by 13% and reported a gross margin[1] of 46.7% (41.6%). This reflects high activity levels in North East Asia and North America.
Underlying business fundamentals remain strong in North America driven by consolidation in the US operator market, pending spectrum auctions, and increased
demand for 5G. The 5G contracts in Mainland China have developed according to plan, contributing positively to profits in Q3 and are expected to improve
further. Our business in Europe grew based on several footprint gains. While the pandemic has hurt revenues for several of our customers, and in some cases this
has led to a reduction of capex, we have not seen any negative impact on our business, largely due to footprint gains. However, the pandemic negatively impacted
our sales in Latin America and Africa.

Digital Services continued to make good progress on the execution of the turnaround plan, transforming the business and increasing software sales. The gross
margin[1] improved to 43.5% (38.3%), supported by increased software sales and improvements in the underlying business. Our cloud-native 5G core portfolio shows
very positive momentum with a high win-ratio and a significant number of new customer contracts. We are selectively increasing R&D investments to accelerate our
growth portfolio to capture market opportunities. However, sales in our legacy portfolio is declining faster than earlier predicted. In the short term, this
shortfall will not be compensated by the growth in new offerings and therefore our sales volume is lower than expected. With weaker sales in combination with
higher R&D investments, there is a risk of further delay in reaching the 2020 operating margin target for Digital Services.

Managed Services delivered a gross margin[1] of 20.1% (17.9%). The 4Q rolling operating margin[1] is 7.4%. Sales declined mainly due to the US operator
consolidation. We expect our investments in automation and AI to create future business opportunities, which are anticipated to gradually improve the margin
profile as this new portfolio grows.

Emerging Business and Other reported a gross margin[1] of 30.5% (20.5%). Our IoT platform sales grew by more than 40% despite an impact on demand from Covid-19.
In the quarter we announced our plans to acquire Cradlepoint, which will strengthen our ability to grow in the 5G enterprise market alongside our existing
dedicated networks and IoT portfolio. Cradlepoint will drive revenues for our customers as wireless WAN gains further penetration. Cradlepoint will operate as a
standalone subsidiary within Ericsson, and we look forward to welcoming the team at Cradlepoint to Ericsson.

Patent licensing continues to perform well based on our strong IPR portfolio, even though revenues decreased in the third quarter as one of our licensees
experienced lower sales volumes. We are approaching several important contract renewals. We are confident in the value of our broad patent portfolio, including
a strong position in 5G and will seek to maximize the net present value of our patent estate that has been built over time through our large R&D investments.
Depending on timing of the agreement renewals, we may see gaps in IPR revenues in 2021 and 2022.

Free cash flow before M&A amounted to SEK 3.9 (4.5) b. in the third quarter, a year-on-year improvement of SEK 1.9 b., if adjusted for a capital injection into
the Swedish Pension Trust and last year’s positive effect from a social security refund. On a 4Q rolling basis we have generated SEK 17.7 b. of free cash flow
before M&A[3] if excluding the payments to SEC and DOJ.

We are committed to continue improving our Ethics and Compliance program. Through driving stronger management ownership and accountability for compliance, we
are also reinforcing our commitment to responsible business practices and a stronger corporate culture. Our people should always be able to speak up and we
expect Ericsson leaders to operate with integrity at all times.

Open RAN is a hot topic in our industry today and Ericsson is a strong supporter of openness and actively engages in alliances, such as 3GPP, ONAP and the O-RAN
alliance. In the years to come, networks will gradually evolve, as will the current open standards. At the same time 5G is ready and happening now so focus must
be on providing early access to 5G networks to enable the broader ecosystem to innovate at scale.

We remain positive on the longer-term outlook for the industry and Ericsson. The year to date results strengthen our confidence in delivering on the 2020 Group
target.

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Oma analyysi: Kova tulos.

Pieniä kysymysmerkkejä toki joukossa, mutta eiköhän tällä päästä oikein mukavaan positiiviseen vireeseen. Pääosin selvästi yli ennusteen.

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