Sulla on tärkeä pointti siinä kun korostat sitä miten suurin osa taantumista on aika tylsän arkisia. Niistä on dramatiikka kaukana reaalitaloudessa ja pörssissä. Osalla bisneksistä menee huonosti, osalla nihkeästi, monilla hyvin tai erinomaisesti.
Verrataan kahta lähestymistapaa:
- Omistat oikeasti pitkällä sijoitushorisontilla palasia erinomaisista bisneksistä jotka olet ostanut järkeviin hintoihin.
tai - Pidät vuosikymmenien ajan koko ajan tuntosarvet ylhäällä taantuman varalta ja pudotat aina rajusti osakepainoa kun tuntosarvet rekisteröivät tulevan taantuman.
En ole kuullut tai lukenut kenestäkään joka vuosikymmenien mittaan olisi jäänyt plussalle tuossa lähestymistavan 2 pelissä vs. lähestymistapa 1.
Ensinnäkin monta kertaa todennäköisesti säikkyy aavetta ja taantuma jää tulematta.
Toiseksi sitä minkä verran pessimismiä markkinoilla on taantuman aikana pessimismin huipulla, on mahdotonta ennakoida. Jos myöhästyt osakeostoissasi yleisen pessimismin huipusta, pörssi ehtii karata.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk | Charles Schwab
This is a good time to remind investors that a U.S. recession is not—and has never been—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In fact, the 2001 recession only saw one quarterly GDP contraction; also, despite GDP contracting for two consecutive quarters in the mid-to-late-1940s, there was no recession. So the contraction in first-quarter 2022 GDP doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is beginning.
The official arbiter of U.S. recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” The four primary components that the NBER looks at to determine whether the United States is in a recession are—not coincidentally—the four indicators that make up The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI):
- real personal income less transfer payments;
- nonfarm payroll employment;
- wholesale and retail sales;
- and industrial production.
As you can see in the chart below, the CEI tends to track the business cycle in real time, peaking at the start of recessions and finding a trough at the end of them.
Coincident Economic Index
Recessions are not a matter of “if” but simply a matter of “when.” News media often portray them as a catastrophe, but the reality is every economic cycle ends in a recession, allowing any excesses to be wrung out and thus making way for the start of a new cycle. To be sure, investors’ muscle memory of the past couple recessions paints them in a rather unpleasant light: Both the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 sent shockwaves throughout world asset markets and spawned multiple, lasting crises (different in nature, of course).
Barring some exogenous, unexpected event that sends yet another shock through the global system, we think the next recession will be a bit more (for lack of a better term) natural: The Fed hikes rates—sometimes aggressively—to combat inflation and/or growth that’s overheating, unemployment increases, the labor market weakens, incomes fall, and overall growth slows.