I see, issue lies in how to present it so that you compare “apples-to-apples”, regarding the swedish and finnish, and I wasnt aware of the 100% allocations difference aswell, thank you for that.
Either way, I recently started an investment position in Witted, eventhough I am sad to hear you leave - I always admired your openess, transparency and pragmatic approach to leadership and communication with the public.
Although my own thoughts are that you have created an organisation with an amazing culture, so I am not too worried regarding new future ceo. Lets hope he is a great capital allocator!
The stock price today is incredibly low, enterprise value/sales at modest 0,32 for a company with historic organic growth above 50% cagr
If I do a little back of the envelope exercise I find that “intrinsic value” should be roughly;
Total 20% organic + ebita margin target for 2027 lead to;
Revenue: 5% growth 2025, 15% 2026 & 2027 = 74meur in 2027
Ebita 2027: 5% of 74meur = 3,7meur
Net income 2027 : 3.7*0,8 ~~ 3 meur
P/E multiple 15
Fair value = 45meur
Net cash of = 8meur
Enterprise value = 53meur
Compare that to days enterprise value in the stock market: 18meur
So that gives 2,5 years to reach intrinsic value
Buying Witted today leave 18 to 53 meur in 2,5 years gives a yearly return:
54% CAGR
Also looking from a capital cycle lense, a lot of oversupply has left the industry, although some oversupply in tailored solutions still persist. Although in Witted it has been 5 months of stabile employee growth which I view as as strong indication of potensial turnaround
Either way - I wish you all the best for you, your family and friends, and thank you again for the thoughtful responses to my silly questions and all other responses you have shared publicly, I sure as hell has learned alot, and look forward to learn more.
All the best
thomas
norwegian amateur investor