Jossain netin syövereissä käyn Planet keskustelua. Kysymys siellä on että mitä Planetissa nyt tapahtuu.
Mietin asian taas kerran, laitan nyt tuoreimmat ajatukseni kokonaisuudessaan tähän, alkuperäisessä englannin kielisessä versiossa. Mun pointti on se, että markkina ei nyt usko yhtiön kääntävän kurssia positiiviseen kassavirtaan ja siksi osake kyntää pohjia. Mutta me täällä katsotaan faktoja ja seurataan käännettä kvartaali kvartaalilta.
It looks like they are executing quite well what they have promised. Their fleets are collecting every moment data from earth. Their database is unique. Everything in this engineering part looks at least reasonable good.
But the difficult side of Planet is the economy. Planet hasn’t been able to show investors, how they are going to convert their great concept into recurring cash flows. Today generated revenue consists of some big contracts, which are quite short time, e.g. 2 years etc. But Planet can’t tell clearly enough how the fleet and the huge database is converted into customer value. An investor can find just the basics from the income statements.
This week Planet had the investor day. I understand market reaction. I haven’t done my homework good enough, but I have a feeling, that market is disappointed, because Planet has decreased revenue estimates all the time during this year. And the investor day didn’t give anything new about Planets economy, anything new about their business model. The stock is too risky for the investors.
A few words of the potential. Planets dataset is unique, it is huge, increasing all the time, and you can find data many years back. This is totally new for most people. We don’t have any experience about that. Of course scientists know the value of the dataset. All this is something new, something unknown for most of the people steering governments, leading corporations, banks, insurance companies, rescue groups etc.
Planet need a little bit more time to get our ecosystem to be able to use the dataset properly. To clarify use cases. To find the flywheel, and then get the flywheel rolling. Market is now saying to the management of Planet like this: “You are still promising to get adjusted EBITDA positive (or positive cash flow) at the end of 2024, but we don’t trust you.”
Tailwind for Planet is obvious. Different crisis caused by nature or mankind itself increase the demand to understand what is the situation on Earth. Planet has very clear mission statements: “Using Space to Help Life on Earth” or “Make global change visible, accessible and actionable”.