Täällä on hiljaista kuin huopatehtaalla. Eipä siinä mitään…Aktia on tylsistä tylsin, mutta mitä sillä on väliä koska kassavirrat ratkaisee…
An ideal banking structure, but work to do - Initiation of Coverage
With c. 50% of 2026E profit from capital-light asset management and life units, Aktia’s more balanced model stands out from its Nordic banking peers. While we think the structure should allow the group to deliver superior profitability and value creation over time, that is not the case today. With a capital base in line with the CET 1 ratio buffer target, we see scope for a new ROE target of 14%. We think management work is needed to extract the opportunities.
Less NII and more fees
Aktia’s vision is to be a wealth manager bank, which we think offers merit, as it should steer the bank towards more attractive clients and capital-light businesses. The more traditional part of the bank mainly focuses on mortgage lending, an area we believe will see growth recover as interest rates fall. The Finnair Visa card cooperation offers attractive growth potential, in our view. As with other banks, NII will decline over time, in line with falling interest rates, and the relatively large fee income component will become increasingly attractive.
New CEO to head even more towards wealth management, in our view
We expect new targets and a strategy update ahead, given that a new CEO is in place. With sector NII falling as interest rates decline, we think banks should focus on growing their capital-light revenue. In our view, Aktia’s broad product offering leaves it well positioned for success in such a strategy shift. We believe growing high ROE business will improve capital generation and justify a higher valuation.
A low P/E and a high yield
Aktia is trading at 2026E EPS of 7.0x compared to its five-year historical average of 11x and peers at 8.2x. The 2025E-26E dividend yield of c.10% should interest investors, not least in a lower interest rate environment. We initiate coverage of Aktia with a valuation range of EUR 11.8-13.1 compared to the current share price of EUR 9.2.