An adviser to the Ukrainian military told the Financial Times that Kyiv had obtained “very solid intelligence of intent” by Russia to launch the attack, adding that it could come within 10 days. Andriy Chernyak, an official in Ukraine’s military intelligence, told the Kyiv Post news outlet on Wednesday that Putin had ordered his armed forces to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk by March.
Analysts think a likely point for a fresh Russian attack is in the west of Luhansk province near Kreminna and Lyman, a city retaken by Ukrainian troops in last autumn’s counter-offensive. Russia has been assembling forces there for weeks, according to local officials and western analysts.
But Moscow is also building up its troops in the south of Donetsk province, with additional forces being deployed to villages around occupied Mariupol, according to an exiled local official.
“If they’re smart they will concentrate all their forces in one small place,” said the military adviser.
The Ukrainian military adviser said a renewed Russian attack would probably be spearheaded by elite units.
“We have to be serious,” he said. “These are proper mechanised brigades even if they are less capable than they were at the beginning of the war. They’ve reinforced the VDV [airborne] and marine units. These are not bus drivers and schoolteachers.”
"Escalation is also overplayed as a concern, as due to the Russian SAM threat, western fighters would be almost purely defensive weapons in Ukrainian hands, unless deliberately supplied with long-range stand-off cruise missiles. "
"Ultimately, neither the Russian nor Ukrainian armies are designed to rely on air support like Nato forces. Instead, they are primarily artillery and armoured land forces. The Ukrainian Air Force undoubtedly needs western fighters to improve its air defence capabilities and give it more strike options to complement ground based capabilities like HIMARS. However, the question is if the resources needed to make this work are better used elsewhere for now, given that western fighters will not significantly shape the land battles over the coming months. "
"At a joint press conference with Polish Defense Minister Mr. Mariusz Blaszak, Mr. Reznikov said that negotiations are currently underway with Western partners aimed at defining a platform for the transfer of tactical aviation to Ukraine. “What it will be – F-16 or Gripen – is a matter of discussions with NATO partners,” Reznikov said. "
Taitaa Ranska olla poissa pelistä tai ainakin viimeinen hätävara vanhoilla Mirage 2000 koneilla.
