Otteita:
I heard this same sentiment across all levels of the U.S. government in recent days. The summer has been frustrating and, in some ways, disappointing for Ukraine and its Western backers. But rather than look for a quick diplomatic exit ramp, most senior U.S. officials appear more convinced than ever of the need to stand fast with Kyiv. The United States, in their view, cannot be seen to abandon its ally.
U.S. officials still think the Ukrainians can significantly breach Russian positions this year, as they pass beyond Russia’s hardened first and second lines of defense. U.S. officials believe Kyiv’s mobile units could then move quickly east and west, confounding Russian defenders.
But Ukraine probably won’t deal any decisive blow before year’s end. That means a continuation of this grueling war into 2024 and beyond, and a continuation of the heavy casualties and emotional trauma for both sides. U.S. officials believe strategic patience remains the best weapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who still thinks he can outlast Ukraine and the West.
Pentagon officials have urged their Ukrainian counterparts to prioritize better and concentrate their forces on potential breakout points along the 600-mile front. Ukraine initially placed equal emphasis on three axes, rather than concentrating on the main thrust south through Zaporizhzhia toward the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is said to have responded, finally, by moving some units toward the south from Bakhmut and other areas in the East where, despite U.S. arguments, they had remained entrenched.
Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities along the sprawling front. On all these points, U.S. officials believe the Ukrainians are responding positively. But the discussion has been prickly in recent weeks.
As Biden administration officials assess the likelihood that the war will continue into next year and perhaps beyond, they’re considering several important new augmentations of Western support. There’s growing backing in Washington for providing rocket-launched cluster munitions, for example, which could strike deeper than the artillery-fired versions the United States began supplying last month.
Ukraine and its supporters continue to plead for long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, that could hit deep behind Russian lines. But the Pentagon continues to resist, largely because officials fear the United States doesn’t have enough ATACMS to supply Ukraine without undercutting its own readiness for any future conflict with China.
With Ukrainian forces stymied on the ground, U.S. officials believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky will take the fight increasingly to Russian territory and occupied Crimea.