Pastetaan nyt tännekkin Regulus Partnersin kommentit Brassien lainsäädännöstä, kun selkeästi herättää kiinnostusta. Suosittelen igaming- regulaatiosta kiinnostuneita tilaamaan heidän Winning post- uutiskirjeensä. Lyhykäisyydessään voidaan sen todeta jatkavan viimeaikaista trendiä surkeasta regulaatiosta, joka ohjaa pelaajia mustille toimijoille ja tekee operaattorien kannattavasta toiminnasta haastavaa. Yleisestikkin porukan suhtautuminen sääntelyyn on turhan optimistinen, koska suomalaisen sosiaalidemokraatin tavoin ahneus toisten rahoihin on rajatonta (tämä pienenä kevennyksenä).
"Brazil: gambling reform – clarifying chaos
Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies (lower legislative house) has passed an amended gambling regulation act, which will allow online gaming (not landbased) as well as omnichannel betting, ban bonuses, and reduces the term of the US$6m licences to three years (from five). Taxes adding up to c. 30% of revenue and a withheld player winnings tax for winnings over US$400 remain. The Senate now has 45 days to comment on the amended Bill, but the shape of the draft will be decided by the Deputies, suggesting no further change before Presidential signature unless an aggressively conservative response from the Senate discourages the government. After years of wrangling, therefore, it appears that we now know what regulated gambling in Brazil from 2024 will look like – at least sort of.
Essentially the Deputies have listened to lobbying that leaving online gaming off the table makes the ecosystem unworkable for most existing Brazil-facing operators and would have caused a significant black market. We agree with this and on its own the inclusion of online gaming should be a victory for common sense, player protection and the channelling of over c. US$1bn in existing revenue. However, getting online gaming through has come at the cost of leaving all the bad bits of the regulation in, which will also apply to online gaming (see WPs passim for impact).
Online gaming tends to be even more Pareto-driven than betting, meaning that the 30% winnings tax on prizes of over US$400 is even more onerous – the tax covers every evens spin on roulette over US$200, since the stake element of the prize is also captured (a position far more logical, or at least less distortive, for lottery than for structurally shorter-odds gambling products). Higher value customers have no reason to channel to Brazil’s online gaming market, which probably takes off c. 30-50% of the existing market, albeit one exhibiting 30%+ growth from an increasingly mass market audience. However, the black-market ecosystem has been given three other major boosts by the proposed regulation. First, the banning of bonuses leaves the main customer acquisition tool for gaming with the black market: here is a bonus for playing tax-free is a rather compelling customer proposition. Second, the requirement for payments options to be locally approved, again a sound enough regulation on its own, leaves cryto and offshore wallet solutions wide open – the recent success of Blaze in Brazil (a local Stake) shows just how powerful crypto-led casinos can be; even if Blaze gets licensed, another unlicensed operator will likely take its place. Third, a licence fee of US$2m per annum is beyond the long-tail, ensuring that the majority of existing Brazil-facing gaming businesses will not apply for a licence, further feeding the black market.
Online gaming has an option to become more mass market, especially if it can channel the c. US$10bn illegal Jogo do Bicho market (RP estimate). However, this is likely to be achieved by omnichannel Local Heroes offering gaming in addition to a mass market betting network rather than existing operators channelling into a licensed regime, in our view. This may not matter in terms of mass market engagement, but it does mean massive disruption for higher value players and the existing business models that rely on them.
A final wrinkle is what happens to state-led licensing options which are currently being rolled out. As they stand, these licences can be used to target the whole of Brazil, creating a Federal loophole and potentially an intangible export market for smaller states to try to gain outsized tax and jobs benefits. In theory, it is hard to see the Federal government allowing this, but it is far from certain what can be done in practice given the semi-devolved Brazilian Constitution. Brazil has clarity, and the additon of online gaming will be a big boost for some, but that clarity comes with chaos. Given the mass market omnichannel opportunity, we continue to believe that a Tipico-style business will emerge as a strong Local Hero in a challenging market – which as Germany has shown, is a pretty awful prospect for everybody else."
Koska kyseessä Evon ketju, arvaillaan nyt mahdollisia vaikutuksia Evolle. Kasinopelien mukaan tulo regulaatioon on positiivista ja nostanee Evon reguloitujen pelien markkinoiden osuutta. Mitä tuolle ulkopuolelle ohjautuvan suuremman ostovoiman&valveituneemman pelaajapopulaation ohjautumiselle käy onkin hankalampi arvioida. Evonkin asiakkaina on varmasti toimijoita (esim. reguluksenkin viittaamia kryptokasinoita), jotka tuosta osansa ottavat, mutta siellä puolella listaamaton Pragma on oman mutuni mukaan vahvemmassa asemassa. En siis odota Evolle tuosta lyhyellä aikavälillä mtn erikoista buustia, mutta kyllä lattarit on noussut viimeisen vuoden aikana ylipäätään alalla suurempaan fokukseen ja tuo jatkossa varmasti Evollekkin vahvaa kasvua.
