Nyt on Hyzonilla mielenkiintoista uutista: asiakkaiden tekemissä vertailuissa oikeissa käyttökohteissa (esimerkkinä mm kuljetusyritys, joka kuljettaa päivittäin asiakkaille tavaraa tietyillä alueella Kaliforniassa sekä jätekeräysyritys) Hyzonin rekat ovat hakanneet sekä dieselit että patterirekat, ja kaupallinen potentiaali alkaa olla massiivinen: TJ kertoo esimerkin, jossa yksittäisen tilauksen arvo olisi 50 miljoonaa euroa.
Edelleen yhtiön tilanne on haastava kun rahaa palaa eikä kassaan (ainakaan vielä) kunnolla kilise, mutta joko tämä alkaisi olla käänteen paikka?
Parker Meeks : Great. Hey Steve, good morning. Thanks for joining and great question. I’d love to dive in and talk about the performance of our trucks, particularly those that have been in trial, because as you mentioned, the performance has been exceptional and far beyond both our expectations and the customers that we’ve trialed with. Across all 10 trials that have been completed thus far, five on the Class 8 200kW truck and five on the refuse truck, we set goals with our customers on performance. You can imagine given, several of those fleets actually trialed the 110kW Class 8 truck. They understand for the most part, zero-emission truck performance. They understand obviously their diesel or CNG truck performance, and they understand that the goal for this, which they tell us, is for these trucks to work as a complete replacement for combustion without compromise, that’s what they need. In some cases, for instance, in Class 8, if you are a warehouse-based delivery business, you may have 30, 50, 100, 200 trucks going out from the same warehouse every day on a wide variance of routes, some shorter, some longer, some lighter load, some heavier load. But for the most part, every truck in a facility has to do every route, right. So, when you think about what’s the standard for these trials, what’s the expectation, it essentially is that our truck for that facility can do every route that that facility does. When you are in the LA basin for instance, if you are going anywhere longer than, say 60 miles, 70 miles radius from a facility, you are probably climbing some pretty steep hills. So the performance expectations that we set with our customers, that they set, which we accept, have to do with load, they have to do with range, they have to do with how long they operate during a day. In some cases, they have to do with doing double shifts. For the Class 8, for instance, a typical day on trial can be anywhere from 150 miles to 500 miles across these trials. We can be carrying anywhere from 60,000 pounds to in some cases close to 90,000 pounds, if they are carrying super heavy loads with permit loads. And in some cases, we’re climbing 3,000 foot climbs, 6% to 8% grades. And again, the goal is to do all the work that diesel can do. On the refuse truck, to do all the work of combustion in refuse, it depends on the route, it depends on the type of waste that you are picking up. If you are a classic neighborhood bin pickup, the standard typically is somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 bin lifts or trash can lifts per day. Some of these routes, you are picking up 20 to 25 tons of waste in a single day, right. Those are some of the standards that we set on top of even more critical standard that very few zero emission trucks can meet, which is on the cost to operate the vehicle, which comes down to fuel efficiency, and it comes down to the overall cost of that fuel. So, if you take the Class 8 for instance, our trucks across all five of those trials to-date have tackled 3,000 foot climbs, 6% to 8% grades, have completed some days with up to 500 miles in a single day with a 20-minute refueling at the base in between shifts. They are showing up to 50% better fuel efficiency than diesel, which is critical, right, because fuel as we mentioned many times before, is up to half of the total cost of ownership for a Class 8 truck. So when you’re 50% better than diesel, let’s say that diesel getting six – sorry, four miles per gallon and our truck getting six miles per gallon equivalent, that’s a significant impact on proving to the customer, not only can this truck do the work, but the truck can also be cost competitive to diesel at a hydrogen price of, call it, $7 to $8 a kilo. On the refuse truck, it’s even better. On the refuse truck, again, I mentioned in neighborhood waste collection, you are anywhere from 1,000 to 1,500 trash can lifts per day. Our trucks have consistently completed every route they have had put in front of them, every operating day, either without having to refuel or only having to top up to avoid range anxiety on extremely long routes that in some cases are longer than what combustion does. We’ve achieved over 1,300 bin lifts per day in actual operation on multiple days. Consistently across all of our trials, we look at how much work the truck did during a day, again, completing a full day’s work without having to refuel. And based on the fuel that’s left over, we project how much work the truck could have done, and we’re consistently showing over 1,500 bins per day of potential range, which is tremendous. Compare that to battery trucks. Most battery trucks can only do about 800 bin lifts per day. So, we’re literally doubling the work rate of battery electric. And by the way, if for some reason there’s an extreme route where we have 2,000 bins to pick up in a day, because these trucks are typically coming back to base multiple times in a single day, we can refill those trucks in about 15 minutes. So you can basically get up to 3,000 bin lifts of range with a 15-minute fill, whereas battery electric does half a day’s work and can charge for anywhere from four to eight hours. And then finally on the fuel efficiency for the refuse truck, it’s just been tremendous. We’re seeing up to 300% better fuel efficiency than diesel. I think the average for our U.S. trials has been about 250% better fuel efficiency than diesel in the exact same routes. Having 2.5x better fuel efficiency means that we can support the same operating cost as diesel with up to a $15 per kilogram price of hydrogen, which is available now, right. So with the refuse truck tackling 27% grade hills in the city of San Francisco, showing it can do up to 1,500 bin lifts per day, showing it can carry up to 30 tons of trash in a single day, and in some route structures we’re doing multiple days of work without having to refuel. It is a tremendously advantaged truck versus all other zero-emission trucks that are out there in North America that we’ve seen. It’s the only fuel cell-powered truck in North America on the road now, and the battery trucks just really can’t come close. So that’s why these 10 trials we’ve completed, half on each platform, have gotten us and our fleet customers so excited, as it’s proven – and for some of them, for the very first time, it’s the first zero-emission truck they’ve tried that actually can do the work, and that the economics are actually better than they expected, given the fuel efficiency advantages that we are showing.
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Steven Fox : Great. That’s really interesting and very helpful. And then just a couple quick follow-ups. On Slide 9, there’s only two check marks missing for the rest of ‘24 around fleet agreements and advancing to second-order tranches. Can you just sort of handicap the ability to get that done by the end of the year and any kind of preview on what that could mean? And then just along with that, can you just remind us on the revenue opportunity per 100 trucks or however you want to sort of gauge it for us longer term? Thanks.
Parker Meeks : Absolutely. Thanks, Steven. And again, we’re thrilled to be at the stage today where we believe we’re showing that the high-zone fuel cell technology and the high-zone fuel cell powertrain is proving in the field it can do the toughest jobs in the heaviest and the longest-running trucks in zero-emission. And we have customers with a market backdrop that is if anything, accelerating in many ways. So we see funding programs, like out west in the state of California, that are continuing and that are well-funded for zero-emission trucks. We have federal programs that we’re excited to be supporting, whether it’s the DOE, H2 hubs, or the core programs that were just awarded under the Clean Ports Program and the Inflation Reduction Act and several others are now being put forward. And alongside that, our customers, particularly in refuse, have cities and counties who are now requiring zero-emission trucks as a part of the application at the end of RFPs to award refuse collection services. So if you’re a large city in California, and many times they are awarding 2026, 2027, five to 10 year contracts, where for some of the large fleets, it’s an incumbent contract that they don’t want to lose. And for other fleets, large and small, it’s an opportunity for them to step in and actually win a contract, where part of that RFP response includes advantages to zero-emission trucks given how well our garbage truck in particular is performing. So with that backdrop of a strong market backdrop and accelerating in some cases in refuse, customer view of the opportunity, to not just have our trucks be a decarbonization enabler for their ESG goals, but also a revenue enabler and a market share enabler, either defensive or offensive, given the RFPs that are coming out from the cities and counties. We’re actively in negotiations on the majority of the ten trials that have been completed on the first contracts or in some cases the second order for all of our trucks. I mean, you can see on Slide 9, we say that they are both – both those goals, a new large fleet multi-year customer agreement and a large fleet advance to a second order are in negotiations. And while I can’t tell you exactly the timing of when we might get those done, given the performance of our trucks, we are optimistic that we have put everything in place to show the trucks work, to show the economics can work, there’s subsidy in place today to support today’s truck being deployed [ph] and the customers are excited to get going. So we certainly will look forward to updating the market as appropriate, as we’re able to push these customers across the line. And again, we’ve spoken about where we are today and putting check marks next to those final two. To your question on revenue potential, what I can comment on that we’ve released previously, we said last year that the 110kW truck round figures was roughly a $500,000 headline price, and of course that varies by customer. The 200kW we haven’t commented publicly on the price of that truck and the economics to us from a powertrain point of view. You can imagine 200kW is a bit more expensive than a 110kW, although it’s not dramatically so. So if you’re talking about 100 trucks, if you did it on the 110 kilowatt economics that we put out before at a whole truck revenue, you are talking about $50 million of revenue if it is a full sale, full stop, no lease arrangement, no holdbacks, no accounting concerns as to how that revenue is recognized. In some cases, with our contracts from 2023 that are now in 2024, we do have trucks that are commercially deployed under a contract where there may be a performance guarantee, there may be a buyback clause, there may be other restrictions that our finance team can speak to. But long story short, what’s the cash potential for Hyzon and what’s the potential cash generation for the company. These are today, call it $500,000 give or take, total cash generation potential for a truck. The refuse truck is a bit more expensive than that, given there’s a body attached to it as well. And what we’re excited to hopefully show is conversion of these trials to contracts, the GreenWaste Agreement being the first of those to be announced in the back of trials, and then to be able to talk more openly in 2025 about how that’s translating to cash generation, to revenue potential, including potential concepts like deposits that we are hoping to land. Tough to do that in the U.S. market. It’s not normal for truck companies to pay deposits on trucks. But our customers also understand that this is a different technology with a different cash profile. So all those are terms and concepts that we’re excited to hopefully talk about in more detail as we push forward on the back of this trial program in Q4 and 2025.
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