Osakesijoittaminen

Kollect on Demand - Digitalisoimassa Irlannin/brittien jätehuoltoa

@JormaParola ehdotuksesta laitetaan näillä eväillä jo ketju pystyyn. Lähden itse juuri töihin niin valitettavasti en ennen iltaa tai huomista ehdi täydentämään

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Tässä vielä aika kattava kirjoitus englanniksi viime kesäkuulta

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Analyst Groupin tavoitehinta Kollect On Demandille Base-skenaariossa 17.1SEK

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Tämäpä kiinnostava tarina! Osake heiluu kuin tuuliviiri, mutta bisnes näyttää kulkevan ihan ok. Mitenköhän Brexit vaikuttaa tälläiseen bisnekseen? Roskaa luulisi olevan jatkossakin.

Pitääpä tutustua brittien kierrätykseen, sen trendeihin ja tulevaisuuteen. Jos jollain tulee jotain luettavaa vastaan niin mielelläni vilkaisisin!

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Koitan vielä ymmärtää tämän luomaa lisäarvoa: kollect yhdistää kotitaloudet ja jätehuoltoyritykset; kun jäteastioiden tyhjennys ajankohtaista niin kotitalous voi buukata heidän platformilta tyhjennyksen? Vähemmän tyhjennyksiä (kustannuksia) kotitaloudelle vs perinteinen jatkuva palvelu? Vai mikä tässä on se juttu kotitalouksille?

Noin vuosi sitten törmäsin alla olevaan innovaatioon, mikä mielestäni kotitalouden näkökulmasta vielä yksi steppi eteenpäin, eli optimoisi astioiden tyhjennykset automaattisesti kuluttajan näkökulmasta.

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Jos oikein ymmärsin ruotsinkielisestä Analystgroupin analyysistä, niin kyseessä on airbnb:n kaltainen alusta, jonka kautta voi vertailla eri jätehuoltofirmoja ja tilata oma jätehuolto, oli se sitten kerran vuodessa tai viikoittain. Irlanissa ja UK:ssa homma on täysin yksityistettyä, joten kaikkien pitää joka tapauksessa tehdä omakohtainen sopimus. Ala on fragmentoitunut ja yksittäisen omakotitaloasujan on mahdotonta vertailla eri jätehuoltotoimijoita keskenään ilman sopivaa platformia.

Suomessahan homma taitaa olla kunnallisesti hoidettua, joten vertailu on kovin hankalaa. Itselläni ei ole alasta minkäänlaista omakohtaista kokemusta kun kerrostaloissa aina asustellut.

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Jahas, tämäpä mielenkiintoinen lafka. Tässä tosiaan on hyvä ajatus taustalla. Itse muutaman muutoksen tekisin bisnes-malliin, joka tehostaisi keräystä enemmän, mutta tarpeeksi lähellä tämä konsepti on omaa ideaani, jotta voisin yhtiöön sijoittaa. Suomen jätehuolto on itselläni aika hyvin hallussa, mutta UK alue ei niinkään. Uskoisin kuitenkin, että UK alueella ei ole samanlaista intoa vierittää jätehuoltoa kuntien järjestämisen vastuulle kun täällä meillä Suomessa, joten täytyy nostaa hattua, että ovat oikein valinneet maa-alustat omalle konseptilleen.

Mielestäni kummatkin yhtiön tuomat ajatukset jätehuoltosektorille ovat erinomaisia. Mahdollistetaan helppo kilpailutus yksityisille tahoille ja samalla luodaan omaa jätehuoltoverkostoa. Kummatkin näistä tehostavat jätehuoltoa ja näin ollen tällä pitäisi olla positiivinen vaikutus juurikin näihin esillenostoihin joita yritys on presentaatioissaan nostanut esille. Jos tämä lyö markkinoilla läpi niin tässä on helposti kyllä sellainen digitaalinen alusta, jolla on mahdollisuuksia nousta vaikka minne tasoille. Harkitsen position avaamista huomenna.

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Omalla kohdalla suurin kysymysmerkki on juuri tuo markkinan ruohonjuuritason ymmärtäminen, kun omakohtaista kokemusta ei ole laisinkaan kyseiseltä markkinalta ole. Nimenomaan Irlannissa tuo perusjätteiden keräys on yksityistetty, mutta tuttava sanoi Englannissa kaupunkien hoitavan tuon verovaroilla, joten siellä markkina keskittyisi lähinnä tuon isomman romun keräämiseen?

Tuo “bin collection” näytti uupuvan UK sivuilta, kun kävin tutkimassa noita eri sivuja.

“Kollect has created its own niche in the waste industry by focusing on small households and it is attempting to disrupt the industry via the Uber model Kollect initially created an On-Demand Bin Collection, like Uber, the On-Demand Taxi platform, but instead of moving people, we move waste. Kollect matches independent local bin companies with customers, and lets them schedule on-demand pickups for their bins through a proprietary technology.It sure isn’t glamorous, but it’s not exactly a crowded market, and Kollect has sights set on solving problems around choice and price.”

"We have a nearly national network of trusted independent waste contractors for junk removal, bin collection and skip hire.

We offer jobs out to the network via our platform as we receive them from our customers. Jobs are accepted by the nearest and best suited waste provider with spare capacity. Our platform connects us with our Service Partners as they undertake the jobs, so we can closely monitor and track how the job is progressing, and keep customers updated.

Our company mission is to create simple, convenient and efficient ways to collect and recycle waste, innovating in customer service and creating customer delight."

"Are you a waste company?

No, we are a technology company that simply matches you with the best suited waste contractor based on your location. Kollects business model is similar to Hailo, the on-demand taxi platform, but instead of moving people, we move waste. We have a national network of trusted independent waste contractors for Junk removal, Bin Collection and Skip Hire. We offer jobs out to the network via our platform as we receive them from our customers. Jobs are accepted by the nearest and best suited waste provider with spare capacity. Our platform connects us with our Service Partners as they undertake the jobs, so we can closely monitor and track how the job is progressing, and keep customers updated. Our company mission is to create simple, convenient and efficient ways to collect and recycle waste, innovating in customer service and creating customer delight."

Mitä olen ymmärtänyt niin palveluntarjoajat ovat yksityisyrittäjiä Kollectin alustan ja brändin alla. Nämä palveluntarjoajat ovat yleensä alle 10hengen yrityksiä ja näitä on markkinoilla useita. Kollect kerää kaikki yhteen ja asiakkaan tarpeen mukaan pystytään suoraan etsimään se kustannustehokkain ja nopein vaihtoehto. Yrittäjät/yritykset hyötyvät kun rahaa ja aikaa ei tarvitse käyttää mainostamiseen ja asiakaspalveluun, vaan saavat keskittyä omaan core liiketoimintaan ja Kollect hoitaa kaiken muun. Loppuasiakkaat saavat kustannustehokkaan ja nopean ratkaisun eikä tarvitse useasta lähteestä kilpailuttaa yrittäjiä/yrityksiä.

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https://mangold.se/bolag/kollect-on-demand-holding/

Mangoldilta löytyi myös raportit ja analyysit. Viimeisin tosin viime elokuulta, joten tiedä onko tuo seuranta päättynyt. Tässä kuitenkin raporttien sisällöt englanniksi käännettynä ruotsista. Ensimmäisenä seurannan aloitus, jonka jälkeen analyysipäivitys elokuulta 2021

https://mangold.se/wp-media/company-analysis/Kollect-initialanalys-2020-09-28.pdf

28.9.2020

Digital garbage attracts
Kollect offers digital solutions for collection and delivery of waste in one
industry that is analog. The company operates in Ireland and the United Kingdom, countries where waste management, unlike Sweden, is not included in the municipal service. Mangold believes that Kollect’s platform is a much-needed digitization
of the waste industry and that the company has good conditions to grow into one
significant player in the market.

Strong expansion
The company will expand to new cities in Ireland and the UK, which will drive sales. Kollect is expected to grow by 22 percent on average per year
during the forecast period, which extends between 2019 and 2025. The company has
completed acquisitions and secured agreements with Circle K, a chain of fuel stations. Mangold estimates that more acquisitions and similar agreements may be added.

Digital garbage attracts
Mangold begins monitoring Kollect with the recommendation Buy and a target price
of SEK 20 per share over a 12-month term. Kollect is active in the industry for
waste management in Ireland and the United Kingdom - countries where, unlike
Sweden, costs to get rid of their garbage. The waste management industry on these
markets are characterized by smaller entrepreneurs who Kollect through its digital
service connects with end customers. Kollect is the first in this market with
a digital platform and should therefore have good opportunities to create a strong position.

Strong expansion
Continued expansion in Ireland and a forthcoming expansion into the UK do
that Kollect has good opportunities to grow. The waste disposal business area is assessed be well positioned to sign more agreements similar to that of Circle K. Mangold believes that Kollect should reach an average sales growth of 22 percent annually during the forecast period 2019–2025 (CAGR). This results in sales going
from approximately SEK 36 million in 2019 to approximately SEK 152 million in 2025.

Rising margins
Thanks to strong growth, Kollect will quickly be able to grow
volume. This in combination with the company’s unique position in the market should lead to rising margins. As a large part of the company’s turnover comes from recurring income - the customer subscribes to waste collection - the customer acquisition cost is initially taken, but the relationship with the customer in many cases results in a long-term

The company in brief
Kollect was started in 2015 when the company’s founders saw potential in developing the industry for waste management in Ireland. First of all, it was then difficult to find licensed contractor who could be trusted as many of the companies could only be reached by phone or by physically visiting the contractor. In other words, it existed
large space for digitization. The founders also identified that it limited
the product range on the market led to customers entering into agreements with fixed dates for collection. There was thus no flexibility where the customer could control when collection was to take place.

The platform was launched in 2016 and was then only a service for arranging waste collection. The company then saw business opportunities in nearby areas, which resulted in a container rental service that was launched in 2017. During the same year
expanded the company from only handling waste collection to also handling
waste disposal. On the same line, the company introduced in 2018 the opportunity to
order the removal of bulky waste via the company’s platform

Business areas - waste collection
Kollect’s operations are divided into two business areas, Waste Collection and Waste Disposal. The waste collection can be divided into four different parts. The original service in the company is waste collection at households and also collection at commercial actors. Kollect offers households or companies to manage their waste management online.

Customers are also offered different payment methods, either the customer signs up
on a subscription that can be monthly or yearly. Alternatively, the customer can
make one-time payments each time the service is used. Kollect offers a simple platform where the customer gets flexible solutions while Kollect handles all contact with the contractor who ultimately handles the waste.

Container rental is another part of the waste collection business area. Customers
can through the service book containers and bags for rubbish in different sizes such as
delivered on the date and to the place that the customer himself wants. Just like in the service for waste collection, Kollect handles all contact with the contractor and guarantees that this is fully licensed, insured and that it is highly recyclable. The
The newest part of waste collection is the removal of bulky rubbish. This service
gives the customer the opportunity to, in addition to the everyday waste management, also order removal of heavier waste, such as a table or bookshelf. The customer chooses yourself if it is one or more objects to be picked up and what date this should be happen.

Within the waste collection business area, there are two different types of revenue. Collection of household waste and commercial waste that generates recurring revenue as well as container rental and disposal of bulky waste that generates non-recurring revenue

Waste delivery
The waste delivery business area consists of the Bigbin concept, which is fully closed
waste compactor. Bigbin is specially designed to fit in fuel stations, recycling stations and in apartment complexes. The customer who will use Bigbin
creates an account online and through their account the customer can open the door to Bigbin and throw away their rubbish. This system helps reduce the problem of being unauthorized people throw away their rubbish without paying. Another smart feature of Bigbin is that it has a built-in system that senses when it is full and needs to be emptied. In 2019, Kollect entered into an agreement with Circle K to deliver eleven Bigbin to locations around Ireland. Bigbin provides, like the collection of household waste and commercial waste, recurring income.

Strategy for growth
Kollect intends to expand geographically to new markets. This type of expansion
comes with high initial customer acquisition costs and is expected to occur at the expense of profitability. Kollect will evaluate potential cities. The cities
suitability for entry is assessed on the basis of a number of parameters. A good city should have the least 100,000 inhabitants with a high level of disposable income as this generally correlates with more waste to handle. In addition to various quantitative factors are also assessed what the infrastructure of existing waste contractors looks like. Through this process the company gets a clear picture of which cities Kollect has a chance to penetrate and which cities should be avoided. Based on these parameters, Kollect has identified 75 cities as suitable candidates.

The waste market
Kollect operates in the non-hazardous waste market in Ireland and the United Kingdom. This market can be divided into two areas; municipal waste (household waste) and industrial waste. The services of the overall market can be summarized as fundraising of municipal waste, commercial waste, construction and demolition waste as well as operation of waste facilities.

It is important to understand that the Irish and British markets are different
from the Swedish market. In the Swedish system, it is the municipality that manages
garbage collection. In the UK and Ireland, it is up to each household to contact
a private actor who handles the waste collection. It is this difference that makes Collect’s service meet an important need.

Irish market
The overall waste market in Ireland was estimated to be worth around in 2018
1.4 billion euros. The largest segment in the market is commercial waste whose
market value amounted to EUR 580 million. The second largest area was the collection of construction and demolition waste with a value of approximately EUR 490 million, followed by household waste with a value of EUR 290 million.

British market
Kollect will expand in the British market and has established itself in Manchester
as the first city. This market is estimated to be worth around EUR 8.9 billion
which means that it is more than six times the size of the Irish. It is assessed
however, grow more slowly with a growth of 1.4 percent on average per year (CAGR) over the next five years. Historically, the UK market has grown by about one percent CAGR slower than the Irish.

Like the Irish market, construction and demolition waste, together with commercial waste, are the largest areas with a combined value of almost seven
billion Euros. Although the market for household waste is small in comparison, it is
the segment is still worth over two billion euros.

The market for Kollect
Together, the Irish and British markets are worth more than SEK 100 billion. The UK market accounts for about 90 percent of this. It’s a market
which Kollect has not yet penetrated but which they intend to grow on. In total, the company calculates that 75 cities meet the requirements that the company has in these markets.

The company aims for a market share of 20 percent in each individual city. This figure
is considered a reasonable target as it is the market share it has managed to reach in Waterford, in the south of Ireland which was the first city in which the company established itself

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Analyysi 16.8.2021

Growth plan intact
Kollect, which is digitizing waste management in Ireland, continues to grow at a rapid pace.

During the second quarter, the company’s revenues increased by another 39 percent
SEK 16.9 million. The costs were slightly higher than expected as a result
pandemic effects but was on a par with the previous quarter. For the Bigbin business, we expect accelerated growth in the coming quarters then
larger orders have been placed.

Takes the next step
Mangold sees that Kollect has good opportunities to grow geographically in Ireland and the UK, where online still accounts for a small share of total
market. A clear strategy has been presented that extends until 2024.
Increased digitization and customized solutions will provide higher revenues
and improved profitability. To be able to implement this, capital is required
which the company can take in via an ongoing warrant program.

New forecasts and new target price
Mangold has updated forecasts and developed a new target price. Accelerated growth in the second half of the year is expected, but the goal of profitability
postponed until 2022. Additional shares and updated forecasts
has led to a new target price of SEK 22 per share. This causes upside
in the share of close to 100 percent.

Digital garbage attracts
Mangold repeats purchases with a target price of SEK 22.00 in 12 months’ time. Kollect is active in the waste management industry in Ireland and the United Kingdom - countries where a private contractor is paid for waste management and
not the municipality, as it is in Sweden. The waste management industry on these
markets are characterized by smaller entrepreneurs which Kollect through its
digital service connects with end customers. Kollect is first on this one
market with a digital platform and should therefore have good opportunities to
create a strong position.

Strong expansion
Continued expansion in Ireland and an upcoming expansion in the UK
means that Kollect has good opportunities to grow. The business area where Bigbin is included, waste disposal, is judged to be particularly well positioned for growth. Mangold believes that Kollect should reach an average sales growth of about 20 percent per year on average during the forecast period 2021–2026 (CAGR). This results in that sales will go from SEK 65 million in 2020 to approximately SEK 152 million in 2026.

Rising margins
Thanks to strong growth, Kollect will be able to come up quickly
larger volume. This in combination with the company’s unique position in the market
should lead to rising margins. As a large part of the company’s turnover comes from recurring income - the customer subscribes to waste collection
The customer acquisition cost is taken in the beginning, but the relationship with the customer gives in
in many cases a long-term revenue stream.

Attractively valued
According to Mangold’s forecasts for 2023, the share is traded at a P / E below 10x and an EV / S multiple of 2.1x, which we consider attractive given the company’s growth prospects. Our DCF model provides a justified value of SEK 21.7 per share. One sensitivity analysis with lower yield requirements and increased sales shows that
can justify a higher value of the share.

Growth plan intact
Kollect, a growth company from Ireland in digital waste management, has increased its
revenue and continue to develop its digital services during the second quarter.
Kollect showed a growth of 39 percent to SEK 16.9 million. Currency effects have affected revenues negatively by seven percentage points. The exchange rate between the Swedish krona and the euro has not been favorable in the comparison
period. Recurring income is driven by growth for the Bigbin business. Recurring income increased by 74 percent compared
with the same period last year and accounted for 56.5 percent of total revenues in the second quarter. The sales mix differed slightly compared to the previous one
quarter, which affected the gross margin, which amounted to 37 percent. It is
slightly lower compared with the same period last year and the previous quarter when it amounted to 38 and 39 percent, respectively.

More Bigbins on the way out
In waste delivery, previously made acquisitions had a positive effect. The Bigbin business during the quarter increased its revenues by 50 percent compared with
same period last year. More Bigbin compactors have been ordered which are expected
delivered later this year and is expected to contribute to increased revenue. Activities such as waste collection takes place through the newly formed subsidiary KRWC
(Kollect Recycling and Waste Collection Limited). Also this business
has shown a high growth rate.

The pandemic impact is fading
The company made a loss of SEK 2.8 million during the second quarter
(-2.0). Comparison with last year then lags when it last year consisted of large cost savings that in the long run are not considered sustainable. Kollect’s operations
has also been slowed down by the pandemic but states that it can now be maintained
more normally as restrictions are gradually phased out. Operating expenses below
The second quarter was in line with the first quarter’s SEK 9.1 million.

Ongoing warrant program - vital for expansion
The company’s warrant program (of series TO1) runs during August (ongoing
until 20 August) when the company has the opportunity to raise just over SEK 30 million. These will be used to implement the planned growth strategy.
Kollect’s strategy until 2024 includes extensive geographical expansion, primarily Ireland, but also the United Kingdom. Additional acquisitions may also occur
current. The company intends to customize its online business and sharpen its
technology solutions. The goal is also to become more cost-effective.

New major owner on the way in
During July, larger purchases of TO1 were noted, corresponding to approximately 10 percent of the outstanding warrants. This corresponds to just over 4 percent of
the company’s outstanding and additional shares. According to Kollect, it is a syndicate with private Icelandic investors who made the purchase.

Adjusted forecasts
Mangold has chosen to adjust the forecasts for the coming years. Profitability is expected to be achieved next year, ie 2022. During the period 2021-2026
we have forecast an average growth of about 20 percent per year (CAGR).

Strengths

  • First on the market and no direct
    competitors
  • Proven success in established markets

Weaknesses

  • Establishing oneself in new markets leads to
    expensive
    customer acquisition costs
  • Weak solidity

Opportunities

  • Geographical expansion
  • New agreements and acquisitions

Threat

  • Penetrating new markets is risky
  • Similar platforms can be developed by
    competitors
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