Marimekko - Ajatonta suomalaista designia

Kyllä näitä alennuksia on ollut melko säännöllisesti viimeisen kolmen vuoden aikana, jolloin olen ollut sähköpostilistalla. Yritin jossain vaiheessa tehdä kirjata ylös, että onko näihin tullut muutosta, mutta ongelmana olis se, että samoista kampanjoista tuntui tulevan välillä monta sähköpostia niin en pysynyt perässä. Oma mutu-fiilis on, että ei näissä isompaa muutosta ole tapahtunut. 11-12/2021 tuli 28 sähköpostia kun nyt 11-12/2022 on tullut 21 sähköpostia. Ja Ale-prosentit suurinpiirtein samoja, ehkä hieman korkeampia tänä vuonna

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Alennusmyynneilä saadaan kyllä liikevaihtoa varsinkin tähän aikaan vuodesta poskettomasti ja helposti lisää ja jää niistä tässä hintaluokassa lopulta paljon enemmän viivan allekin. Toki nillä syödään jonkin verran myös lähitulevaisuuden myyntiä mutta parempi niin kuin että olisi vanhan seasonin tavaraa varastot pullollaan.

Toki brändi ottaa jonkunverran osumaa mutta sekin nyt riippuu enimmäkseen siitä mitä tavaraa alennuksessa on vielä tässä segmentissä kun kyse ei nyt ole mistään luksus brändistä kuitenkaan.

Tammikuussa voikin sitten tosin koittaa krapula ja jos tulosvaroitusta ei tule nyt niin 4kk sisään pidän sitä kuitenkin todennäköisenä kun tärkein markkina alkaa väkisinkin sakkaamaan. Ehtiikö aasia kompensoimaan jää nähtäväksi.

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Onhan noi tämän sesongin alet merkittäviä, mutta en ole vielä kovinkaan huolestunut jos 250€ logo-hupparia myydään aiemman hinnan sijaan 125€:llä jotta varasto saadaan tyhjäksi. Viivan alle jäänee ihan hyvin, ja mallistoakin varmaan halutaa freesata tätä kautta. Lisäksi ale-kamppikset on tehokas keino saada uusia kuluttajia ostoksille.

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Moi! Everyone knows I am a bull on the stock but we have to tell it as it is. Our management claimed we will become a luxury brand and instead they did big discounts recently. This is a :triangular_flag_on_post:

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Im not sure if Marimekko has ever been considered as a “luxury brand”. Someone in this thread defined Marimekko as “regular people’s luxury brand” which is more accurate. I believe they always have had discounts from time to time which fits their brand image IMO.

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Well, I am not interested in playing with words. Selling shirts at 300 euros and then discounting them is not a practice that can get you somewhere. Next year nobody will be buying anything new. They will all wait for the discounts. That’s the problem. Plus, one could start to question on whether what Marimekko does is worth the full price when almost everything is made in China or Thailand these days.

I had raised a question few quarters ago to the management wondering if the IKEA collaboration would “water down” the exclusivity of the brand. The CEO reassured that they will do anything they can to raise brand awareness and there won’t be any cheap deals. Of course in the same call they also rejected the idea of buybacks, but a few months later they did some. Had they only said they could do buybacks if the price drops unreasonably, the price would had never fallen this much. So I see some panicking. The management does things they said they won’t.

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I think Marimekko’s clothes are mostly done in Portugal, if I remember correctly. Also, majority of the clothes are done only for specific season with quite limited amounts, i.e., the most desired pieces typically run out. However, I do have a bit of a feeling that there has been more discount advertising than historically, but the feeling can be influenced heavily with recency bias.

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This was probably the case until before the pandemic. Recently visiting a store I saw all women coats were are made in China. There were a few lines like the jokapoika which are made in Estonia, but this wasn’t the case. All bags are made in China as well and all home and kitchen things are made in Thailand. Why would one buy a Marimekko mug for 30 euros when it’s made in Thailand instead of an Iittala which also has a lot of products made in Asia? In the end people will just buy the IKEA mugs for 5. After all when all is made abroad there is nothing to separate them apart from the price.

Of course all Marimekko home things have been on a discount for the last three months now and are selling nowhere near initial prices. People didn’t care much about the Thailand made 30 euro mugs.

The management talked about expanding the brand to home things, but this now looks to me like a blander. I don’t think much was wrong with the brand in having smaller, Finnish made production.

I hope they get less “woke”, stop the lines which are not traditionally associated with the brand (like the kitchen things) and get the production line at home where everyone loved them at first. And of course charge premiums then. There you have it. The business plan to get the brand to luxury level.

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I have to agree with this. It would be better for the brand to sell “Made in Finland” or “Made in Nordics” at least intead of “Made in China”. Like you said, it would allow better pricing and improve brand image.

Not sure how chinese people look at “Made in Finland” label though :man_shrugging:

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Chinese people come to Europe and buy luxury products like there is no tomorrow. There are malls in Italy where they sell all the big Swiss and Italy made luxury brands and the sellers speak Chinese. Unfortunately, when your products are made in China there is not appeal to the Chinese peoole who spend money

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Marimekko is not an Luxury brand by any means and never has been. From a price point it falls under premium segment which is also much more forgiving for discounting, especially for the seasonal items.

I agree made in China still has some low price point sound on it and even if not in Finland, agree made in Europe would sound much better.
How big factor this is, am not too sure IF the quality of products is high.

In regards to management decisions and expanding the product range, you need to remember that Finland, which is still the main market to Marimerkko is really not a Luxury Market and again, never has been. Therefore Finnish customers who mostly appreciate the quality (German cars anyone), dont actually mind or see anything wrong if their loved premium brand such as Marimekko collaborates with Ikea. Finnish customers are very pragmatic on that sense and might actually like it as it makes them feel comfortable and cozy and the brand to feel much more approachable.

Now the issue is that since Finnish customers are also very price sensitive, if they dont see the quality difference, they indeed leave the 30eur mug to the store since for them, the brand value is anyway secondary, nice to have but only if quality matches that or if the trend towards that specific item is extremely high like Muumi mugs.

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I see your point. Still, I think that there is a population of about 2 million people in Finland who are better off and own a lot of luxury brands. This can be said for almost any country these days of course. From cars to clothes and watches there is a huge luxury market in Finland. Society is much less egalitarian these days and it will be less and less as times goes by. Literally half the country owns a 1000+ euro iPhone which is renewed every 2 years. I think your understanding of the Finnish society of not caring much about luxury is representative of the 1980s. I think Marimekko with just a single line of Finnish made mugs and lines that are not going to be repeated next year could easily sell for 50 euros and would had brought more income that the Thai made which they struggle to sell even 15e these days. If I could overtake the company, my first move would be to get somebody from Switzerland who understands demand creation and luxury to run it.

IMO luxury brands make luxury margins. All the others are just on a constant struggle to offload inventory…

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There isn’t any way that there would be 2 million people luxury client base in Finland. Most finns don’t understand why someone would buy 10 000 € watch, 3 000 € handbag or 1 000 € t-shirt. For Marimekko luxury brand image and prices might work abroad but not in Finland.

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I think your understanding about the brand segments might be confusing the difference between premium and luxury due to looking only about the possible price of a product, which while connected is still not deciding factor on which segment company/brand falls under.

Reason why I think it is important to understand the difference is because brand management and growth strategies are completely different.

As said, Finland is not an luxury market and potential for luxury brands is therefore tiny in comparison to most of other European markets. You don’t see Gucci, Chanel, Prada or Hermes stores in Helsinki and there is a reason for it - they don’t sell in Finland as there simply isn’t customer group nor culture to support that except tourists.

Premium brands however can sell quite well in Finland and thats why you see people buying iPhones or German cars or even some level of Premium clothing brands such as Hugo Boss or Tommy Hilfiger or Michael Kors bags - these are all however premium brands that also have seasonal sale promotions and more flexibility on trying out different collaborations and price-points than pure luxury players.

Now coming back to Marimekko, I think their positioning is actually quite good, affordable premium and within that range have a huge potential reminding me a bit of brands like desigual. Biggest risks I see is the lack of International industry experience from employees, too agressive short terms growth targets with discounting and for timebeing too big percentage of revenue from one market (Finland). Becoming major global brand requires time and at least 10s or 100s of millions of marketing investment and my impression is top management might be a bit inpatient/focusing on short term growth. Still as mentioned the potential is huge and am definitely monitoring them and might jump in big time once the time and share price is right.

In a short term think the stock price can easily move between -40% to +20% from current valuation depending how big of a disappointment if any the Q4 and now Q1 results will be.

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@Rauli_Juva Marimekon verrokkiryhmään ei näytä kuuluvan kanadalaista muotitalo Aritziaa. Se vastaisi oman käsitykseni mukaan aika hyvin Marimekkoa omalla “everyday luxury” -tarjoomallaan, joten ehkä sen voisi ottaa mukaan tuleviin raportteihin?

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So OK, you don’t see luxury brands in Finland. Have you seen how many people drive EVs around you? Have you seen how many people wear Canada Goose now in winter? All the companies you mentioned open stores depending on tourism trends. Hermes is having 5 stores in Istanbul, 1 store on the tiny Greek Island of Mykonos, 1 store on Ibiza, just few examples. Meaning, for Hermes or Gucci to open a store it needs to be a place that is a popular summer turist destination first and foremost. They won’t sell glasses and bikini in Helsinki when the summer is barely two months. These are mainly summer fashion brands.

As you mentioned yourself, Finnish people buy some of their expensive brands abroad. So it’s not a question on whether Finnish people would buy luxury goods. They do. Right now Marimekko is pretty much competing with all the other brands that make clothes in China and porcelain in Asia. Zalando brands or IKEA. Why should the Finn keep on paying premium if Marimekko imports their products from the same place where all the other imported clothes come from? I see the brand losing its character and identity. Look at it this way. For the potential customers - visitors of Finland: you want to buy a memory from Finland, but the mug Marimekko sells you is made in Thailand and the bag for your wife or daughter is made in China… You simply skip it to buy something else, elsewhere :unamused:

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Personally I could not care less if you do not understand the difference between premium and luxury brands or wish to see some premium or other brands as a luxury. However the reason why I think it does make a major difference from investment point of view is that first investor should understand the segment company is operating before they can judge whether the decisions companies are doing are damaging the brand or not. If you think Gucci or Prada or Hermes all have stores only based on tourist locations meaning travel retail would be their most important channel or that they are summer fashion brands, that argument leaves me quite speechless. Some of the world most known and iconic luxury brands with 100 years of heritage = summer fashion brands :slight_smile:

Now back to Marimekko and its manufacturing locations and its impact, I am unsure if you have heard for example about the small company called PVH Group? Market cap 5.5 Billion, Revenue around 8 Billion etc… Anyway, they own few brands such as Calvin klein and Tommy Hilfiger - both which are considered premium brands, would you wish to take wild guess where their products are mostly made?..

Or how about another tiny Brand you might have heard off, whats the fruit, orange or banana or something, guess where their products are made? :slight_smile:

Again, I agree made in Europe or especially made in Finland would sound better in my view as well but just making a point that just because 10 or 20% of items are done in Asia instead, dont see that as a risk or any significant damage to the brand since whole “made in” has lost so much of its value it used to have.

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I think you have overlook one crucial thing about Finns. We are pragmatic people. There is very often very cold in here. There fore you can pay 1000 euros for winter jacket and then use it for several years. Same goes with cars. If you drive a lot electricity is by far the cheapest option. There fore its not a luxury but rather practical.

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There is nothing to disagree with what I wrote. Why on earth you think Hermes and Gucci and others open shops in popular small islands that are packed with tourists in the summer?

Now, I think what I write on Marimekko is very clear as well. The management has talked about exclusivity and luxury. My objection is about the endless discounts and the production moving abroad. I don’t see any edge on selling Thai made mugs at 50% now at some Stockmans corner. If you want to call Marimekko premium, uper, middle, side next to luxury or whatever, we only play with words.

Marimekko did a collaboration with Adidas. They did charge 100-150 euros for the products. Some of their products are still sold now on some shops for 40-50 euros. Please, since you follow Gucci, check the collaboration Gucci x Adidas. A mini bag goes for 1500$. Why do you think is that? Check the where is made tag. It’s actually proudly stated even on their webside “made in Italy”. You, see, this is what I am talking about. Marimekko struggles to sell two years later the adidas stock at 1/3 of the price, while Gucci can charge 1500 for it. You don’t have to sell it like Gucci. But if you make it domestically, you can easily sell it for 300 as it will be a unique thing. Make it in China or Thailand, and nobody cares. There are literally hundreds of brands doing exactly that.

You wrote about PVH Corp. Are you writing that honestly as an argument to support your opinion? These brands like Tommy Hilfiger have been struggling for decades. They have global presence and their market cap is not even 6 billion. They sell Tommy Hilfiger things from Prisma to Costco, from Nigeria to Hong Kong and what are their profit margins? Check please on Yahoo Finance. It’s barely 5%!!!

See the balance sheet: total cash - 450 million, total debt - 3.6 billion. Is this is what you dream of Marimekko to become? A barely profitable business, heavily indebted that sells when they have discounts on their products at the super markets?

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Finns are definitely pragmatic people. They would rather buy a 1500$ Canada Goose which is made in Canada rather than a 500 euros Marimekko made in China. Honestly, Google the Marimekko x Adidas collaboration. There is literally not even one product sold at this point and time at full price. If Adidas originals are made in Vietnam why pay premium to buy Adidas Marimekko made somewhere else in Asia. The whole exclusivity and identity of the brand are slowly fading. It’s simply sad.

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