https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/news/who-gains-from-huaweis-pain/2020/10/?hit=509e21bf-ab93-4f16-97a3-212f932dc37f&utm_campaign=buffer&utm_medium=social&utm_source=sdx.io
“We believe we are entering year one of a four-year cycle over 2021-2024 that could see global Huawei displacement sales grow from $5 billion to $17 billion,” Ryan Koontz, analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, wrote in the report.
Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Mavenir, and other unnamed vendors are poised to gain $8 billion in incremental RAN sales by 2024, he said, adding that Ericsson, Cisco, Nokia, and others also stand to benefit from about $1 billion in mobile core sales.
Ericsson, which has “the most competitive channels and products in Huawei markets,” could land up to 50% of the displacement opportunity on RAN sales, especially before open RAN vendors mature, according to Koontz. He pinned Nokia’s opportunity on displaced RAN sales at about 20%, and forecasts Samsung to “benefit significantly” starting in 2023.
On the optical front, the firm predicts Ciena, Nokia, Cisco, Infinera, and others to earn about $2 billion in incremental sales during the next four years. Nokia, Adtran, CommScope, and other companies are expected to generate $3 billion in broadband access sales. And finally, Cisco, Juniper Networks, and Nokia, are expected to benefit from $1 billion in routing sales, according to the firm’s projections.