Lainaan tässä samaa asiaa käsitelleen OldToolFoolin kirjoitusta Redditissä:
First, the enterprise private network business will not disappear at all, any MN sale could include long term equipment resale contracts, perhaps on a profit sharing basis, as the real juice from private networks is not in the gear, its in the software and services sold alongside the gear. Any buyer not already deeply into private networks would take this structure.
Second, the whole point of any buyer acquiring MN is to also acquire the patents, which have value, and Nokia would get a license back in any sale, which is normal. The patent portfolio would remain, stripped of the MN essential patents, in areas of routing and fixed networks. I’m no math wizard, but I’d surmise that given the MN-related patents are pretty much encumbered (e.g., licensed) already, that if you discount future royalties to present value (which any buyer will do), NOK would still get real up front valule out of a sale, which it can deploy in acquiring assets/R&D/people in true growth areas. MN is a dinosaur and a commoditized business with lousy margins.
The fact that MN is not losing money is nothing more than a support and rationale for its sale. Let the buyer bet on long term profitability and growth - e.g., the “bigger fool” theory of divestitures - which was epitomized by Rajeev Suri’s disastrously ill advised decision to double down on network infrastructure after both Siemens and ALU decided it was a losing business long term.
Yksityisverkkojen liikevaihto on tässä vaiheessa erittäin pieni ja kestänee vielä vuosia ennen kuin myynti saavuttaa Nokialle merkittävän tason. Oli miten oli, tietysti on validi huomio se, voitaisiinko järkevällä tavalla tarjota yksityisverkkoja MN:n myynnin jälkeen.
Tässä vielä arvio yksityisverkkojen liikevaihdosta:
According to Dell’Oro’s data, the total private wireless small cell market outside of China exceeds $100 million. But Pongratz indicated that’s not very much. “Commercial private wireless revenues are still so small. We estimate private wireless small cells is still less than 1% of the overall public-plus-private RAN market in 2022.” https://www.fiercewireless.com/private-wireless/delloro-says-100m-private-wireless-supplier-revenue-small
Ja vielä vuonna 2027 Dell’Oro arvioi markkinan olevan pieni, vaikkakin potentiaali on paljon suurempi:
On the bright side, private small cell RAN revenue projections remain on track to surpass $1 B by 2027. “At the same time, market opportunity is not the same as a forecast and given the current progress, it will clearly take some time for the private wireless market to reach its full potential. In fact, our current forecast is for private wireless to reach roughly 10 percent of its potential by 2027,” continued Pongratz. https://www.delloro.com/news/private-wireless-projections-revised-downward-again/
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