Novo Nordisk - Euroopan arvokkain yhtiö?

Grok vastasi näin kysymykseen bull vai Bear:

The news release from Novo Nordisk, accessible via the provided URL (News Details), presents a mixed outlook for the company’s stock, making it neither clearly bullish nor bearish but rather a nuanced situation with both positive and negative elements.

Bullish Factors

Novo Nordisk has recently showcased robust financial performance, which supports a positive view of its stock:

  • Strong Sales Growth: In 2024, the company reported a 25% increase in sales in Danish kroner and a 26% increase at constant exchange rates, reaching DKK 290.4 billion.
  • Profit Gains: Operating profit for the same period grew by 25% in Danish kroner and 26% at constant exchange rates to DKK 128.3 billion, driven by favorable gross-to-net sales adjustments in the U.S. market.
  • Clinical Success: The company’s diabetes and obesity treatment, Rybelsus®, demonstrated a 14% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in a clinical trial, reinforcing its leadership in these growing therapeutic areas.
  • Q1 2025 Performance: Early 2025 earnings indicated a profit beat, with operating profit exceeding analyst forecasts, highlighting operational strength.

These achievements reflect Novo Nordisk’s dominant position in the expanding markets of diabetes and obesity care, suggesting long-term growth potential that could appeal to optimistic investors.

Bearish Factors

However, several challenges introduce uncertainty and potential downside risks:

  • Lowered 2025 Outlook: Novo Nordisk recently revised its 2025 sales and profit guidance downward—from an expected sales growth of 16-25% to 13-21% at constant exchange rates—due to weaker penetration of its branded GLP-1 treatments in the U.S., partly linked to competition from compounded GLP-1 alternatives.
  • Counterfeit Issues: Reports of counterfeit Ozempic® injections circulating in the U.S. could erode consumer trust and affect sales of this key product.
  • Market Challenges: Despite the Q1 2025 profit beat, the market’s reaction has been muted due to the lowered outlook and competitive pressures, indicating investor concerns about future performance.

Conclusion

The news release encapsulates a dual narrative for Novo Nordisk. On one hand, its strong financial results and advancements in high-demand treatment areas are encouraging signs of resilience and growth. On the other hand, the downward revision of its 2025 outlook, counterfeit product issues, and competitive headwinds signal potential risks that could weigh on the stock. Whether this is bullish or bearish depends on your perspective as an investor. If you prioritize current performance and long-term market leadership, you might lean bullish. If you’re more cautious about the lowered guidance and market uncertainties, you might see it as bearish. Ultimately, it’s a balanced situation that warrants careful consideration of your own investment strategy and risk tolerance.

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Nyt kun ottaa huomioon että Trumpkin voi taas älähtää jotain lääketulleista niin lyhyellä aikavälillä kyse on mielestäni siitä voiko 450 pävän kurssia pitää jo tarpeeksi laskeneena? Teknisesti kai edelleen laskuputkessa.

Käskin itse Grokia vastaamaan lyhyemmin ja suomeksi ja valitsemaan puolensa. Oma mielipiteeni on että pitkällä tähtäimellä ei mitään hätää. Lyhyemmällä sitten en yllättyisi vaikka koukattais uudelleen 400 alta vauhtia.

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Kasvu hidastuu, se todella maksukykyinen länsimainen markkina alkaa saturoitumaan. Vaikkakin tilanne olisi se että lihavia / kapasiteetti on 100:1 niin jatkossa kasvu tulee väkisinkin matalammilla marginaaleilla… Mikähän tämä strategia näiden miljardin lihavan tavoittamiseksi on? Uusille markkinoille siirtyminen kasvattaa ainakin Opexia reilusti… Näen painetta marginaaleissa. Novo tekee nyt myös isoja investointeja kapasiteetin lisäämiseksi, jatkossa tiedossa näiden sulattelua…

Tulevia lääkkeitä kun katsoo, siellä on tabletti semaglutidi tulossa, johon varmasti ozempic/wegovy käyttäjiä siirtyy ja tabletti on oletettavasti kovakatteisempi kuin injektoitavat, mutta sitten taas Lillyn Orfoglipron on heti perässä ja vaikuttaa paremmalta…?

Novo on upea yhtiö mutta ei ihan ilmeinen ostopaikkakaan vielä…? TTM P/E nyt 450DKK / (4,49+6,12+6,34+6,53) =~ 19

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Minusta tässä pitää ottaa huomioon yhtiön tulos, ohjeistus sekä vuosien track record ja verrata näitä osakekurssin kehitykseen esim. viimeisen 3 vuoden ajalta. Osakekurssi on polkenut 3 vuoden ajan lähes paikallaan, mutta onko yhtiön liiketoiminta? No ei todellakaan, vaan yhtiö on kasvanut aivan hurjasti ja vieläpä erittäin kannattavasti.

Varmasti oli ylilyönti kurssissa ylöspäin kun oltiin 1000 DKK hinnoissa, mutta on varmasti ylilyöntiä tullut myös alaspäin kun huomioidaan miten hyvin yhtiö kuitenkin performoi. Jos katsoo yhtiön kasvua, tuloksentekokykyä ja pääoman tuottoja niin ei tästä kyllä oikein huonoa sijoituscasea saa näillä hinnoilla. Ja sitten jos pohditaan millä hinnalla esim. Eli Lilly hinnoitellaan niin kyllä tässä on ainakin omasta mielestäni hyvää upsidea erittäin pienellä riskillä. Markkinathan ovat aivan valtaisat ja Novo on aina pärjännyt olosuhteista huolimatta. Nyt kun nuo compounding-lääkkeet saadaan kuriin niin pienentää riskiä vielä entisestään.

Eikös se yleensä niin mene, että osakekurssi seuraa pitkällä aika välillä kuitenkin yhtiön tuloskehitystä. Tässä on aika hyvä kuvaaja X:stä miten osakurssissa on tapahtunut aika raju ylilyönti alaspäin.

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Alla on paljon ihan hyvää asiaa keissin fundamenttien kannalta.

NOVO NORDISK: EXTENDED STUDIES FOR THE OBESITY CANDIDATE CAGRISEMA

STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) The Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk is broadening, after last year’s study failure in December, the studies on the obesity drug candidate cagrisema.

This was stated by Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen during a telephone conference on Wednesday.

This involves an evaluation of cagrisema during an extended treatment period - 80 weeks instead of 68 weeks - and to determine whether dose increases can provide improved weight loss. In addition, a change is being made in the comparative study between cagrisema and competitor Eli Lilly’s obesity drug Zepbound (tirzepatid). The study period in the comparative study is being extended to 84 weeks.

The study, called Redefine 11, with an extended study period and dose increases, is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2025.

Results from the comparative study Redefine 4 are now expected to be read out in 2026. The study will also have a flexible protocol and will now last for 84 weeks instead of the previous information of a 72-week treatment period. According to the previous assessment, the study would have a primary completion (primary completion) at the end of August 2025 followed by an estimated completion (study completion) in early October 2025.

Novo Nordisk is following its plan to submit an application for marketing approval for cagrisema in the first quarter of 2026.

Just before Christmas 2024, Novo Nordisk presented overall results for cagrisema in phase 3. Although the primary goal of the study was achieved with an average weight loss of almost 23 percent after 68 weeks of treatment, the weight loss was still less than expected. Both analysts and Novo Nordisk themselves had spoken of weight reductions of at least 25 percent before the study. The study miss caused Novo Nordisk’s share price to plummet by 21 percent on December 20, 2024.

Novo shares defy downgrade: JPMorgan sees price weakness as buying opportunity

With a rise of 5.2 percent to DKK 464, Novo Nordisk on Wednesday defied a rather weak financial report measured by sales in the important weight loss business and a downward revision of expectations.

The pharmaceutical giant has lowered its expectations for sales and operating income, citing lower-than-expected growth in sales of GLP-1 drugs in the US due to sales of copycat products from so-called “compounders” who make imitations and their own versions of Novo’s drugs.

The shares have been under severe pressure since their peak of over DKK 1,000 in June last year, and analyst Richard Vosser from JPMorgan also believes that the downward revision was already factored into the price.

JPMorgan’s analyst, who has a positive “overweight” recommendation on the stock, sees any weakness in the share price today as a buying opportunity “ahead of the potential to improve sales growth of the weight loss treatment Wegovy as the so-called “compounders” exit the US market.”

Novo Nordisk’s sales of weight loss drugs rose by 67 percent in the first quarter measured in DKK, but analysts had turned up their noses after an increase of as much as 81 percent.

Novo lowers expectations and now sees growth in sales in local currencies of 13-21 percent compared to previously expected 16-24 percent, while operating profit is expected to increase by 16-24 percent compared to previously expected 19-27 percent.

NOVO NORDISK: CVS HEALTH ANNOUNCEMENT NOT LINKED TO PRICE - CEO

STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) The decision by the American pharmacy chain CVS Health to remove Eli Lilly’s obesity drug Zepbound as the preferred option in favor of the Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk’s drugs Wegovy and Saxenda is not about a price issue.

“It is not a price decision because we did not give any exclusive offer based on a low price,” said Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen during a conference call on Wednesday.

The decision was also not made on Novo Nordisk’s initiative.

“We did not ask for exclusive access at CVS,” said Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, adding that the decision was made by CVS Health.

The Novo Nordisk boss assumes that CVS Health’s decision is instead based on the properties of the drug Wegovy with “a strong cardiovascular protective profile.”

Furthermore, the ongoing evaluation of Wegovy in the treatment of fatty liver, so-called MASH, is believed to have played a role in the decision, according to Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen.

Given that Novo Nordisk has so far only reached a small part of the obesity market, it is about growing the market rather than taking market share in the short term, according to the Novo Nordisk CEO.

NOVO NORDISK: SEMAGLUTIDE IS ON THE WAY TO BE THE FIRST ORAL GLP-1 TREATMENT IN THE USA

STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) The Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk estimates that semaglutide will be the first to enter the US market for oral obesity treatments in the GLP-1 drug class.

Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said this during a conference call on Wednesday.

In February 2025, the company submitted a marketing application in the US to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Novo Nordisk CEO emphasizes that the manufacturing of the drug will take place in the US, both in terms of the active ingredient, tablets and packaging.

In the Oasis 4 study, oral semaglutide showed an average weight loss of almost 17 percent. The corresponding weight loss for patients who received placebo was just under 3 percent.

The conference call presentation also shows that approximately 30 percent of patients in the study in question achieved a weight loss of more than 20 percent.

In the secondary objectives of the aforementioned study, oral semaglutide showed benefits in terms of cardiovascular risk factors (cardiometabolic risk) as well as physical function.

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NOVO NORDISK: ANNOUNCEMENT ON AMYCRETIN IN THE COMING MONTHS - R&D CHIEF

STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) The Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk expects an announcement from regulatory health authorities in the coming months on whether the drug candidate amycretin for obesity can go directly into phase 3 studies.

This was stated by Novo Nordisk’s Chief Research Officer Martin Holst Lange during a conference call on Wednesday in connection with the report for the first quarter of 2025.

Amycretin refers to a combination of a long-acting substance in the drug class GLP-1 and an amylin receptor. The development is taking place for both subcutaneous and oral administration.

In connection with Novo Nordisk’s Capital Markets Day in March 2024, the company’s Martin Holst Lange expressed great enthusiasm for amylin in particular.

Novo Nordisk has previously shown results for amycretin in phase 1/2a, where the weight loss in the highest dose of amycretin was 22.0 percent after 36 weeks of treatment. The level of this weight loss is just below the outcome for the combination preparation cagrisema of 22.7 percent in the Redefine study program. However, in the first phase 3 study from the Redefine program, the treatment period was 68 weeks.

As always, when comparing different studies, caution should be exercised. Not least given that the inclusion criteria for patients may differ between different studies, as well as the study design regarding dosing, etc.

Prescriptions in the United States, its biggest market, have not grown since February despite Novo having increased supplies.

“Growth is expected to pick up in the second-half of the year,” CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen said on a call with journalists.

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Tässä muutamia nostoja Novon tuloksesta, osa onkin näistä jo toistettu tuossa yllä, mutta kertaus on opintojen Alokas. :slight_smile:

Yhtiö “palvelee” tällä hetkellä lähes 46 miljoonaa potilasta diabetes- ja lihavuushoidoilla, joka on paljon enemmän edellisvuoteen verrattuna. Erityisesti lihavuuslääkkeiden myynti kasvoi voimakkaasti kansainvälisten markkinoiden vauhdittamana.

Diabeteksen GLP-1-lääkkeiden myynti nousi vakaasti ja lihavuuden hoidon kysyntä kasvoi poikkeuksellisen nopeasti. Sitten sanottiin myös, että Novo Nordisk etenee uusien hoitomuotojen kehityksessä, kuten CagriSema-lääkkeen kliinisissä tutkimuksissa ja suun kautta otettavan Wegovy-valmisteen lupaprosessissa Yhdysvalloissa.

Yhtiö kuitenkin laski koko vuoden näkymiään, koska Yhdysvalloissa brändättyjen GLP-1-lääkkeiden käyttö jäi ennakoitua matalammaksi yhdysvaltalaisten rinnakkaisvalmisteiden yleistymisen vuoksi. Tästä huolimatta odotetaan edelleen vahvaa kasvua sekä myynnissä että käyttökatteessa.

https://x.com/TheRayMyers/status/1920011655766814909
image


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Erikoisia on kurssiliikkeet Novon osalta. Ei se sitten tainnutkaan olla ohjeistuksen lasku osakkeen hinnassa vielä sisällä vai vaikuttaakohan Trumpin eilliset sanomiset lääkkeiden hinnoittelusta nyt negatiivisesti osakkeeseen? Mistä muuten näkee parhaiten Novon viimeisimmät analyytikoiden päivitykset osakkeesta?

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Toki jos jotain uutta reseptidataa on tullut niin sekin voi vaikuttaa. Se on vähän vaikeasti piensijoittajan saatavilla kuten tässäkin ketjussa on välillä poristu.

Muutama prosentti sinne tänne on Novolle aika perusheiluntaa näköjään.

Nordnetin aplikaatiostahan näkee noiden suositusten muutokset kuukausittain.

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Tässä on vielä visualisointia Novon luvuista; monille toimii tällaiset visualisoinnit, joten siksi(kin) laitoin. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1921253324298272973


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