Kiina-riski realisoituu.
Tässä ei ole isossa kuvassa kyse tuosta ilmoitetusta 5,5 miljardin Q1 alaskirjaukseta, vaan koko Kiina myynnin romahtamisesta. Vaikutus Nvidian myyntiin ~-20 miljardia tämän vuoden ennusteiden osalta.
Nvidia’s GPU Retreat from China: Analyzing the Impact of H20 Ban on Nvidia, Chinese GPU Market, TSMC, CoWoS, HBM, and Samsung.
Background: On April 15, Nvidia was reportedly restricted from selling its less advanced Hopper GPU, the H20, to China. The U.S. government has informed the company that future sales of the H20 to China will require a license—effectively amounting to a ban, as such licenses for a China sales are unlikely to be granted.
Estimated Loss in CY 2026: In its 8-K filing to the SEC, Nvidia disclosed a $5.5 billion charge in Q1 FY2026 related to H20 product inventory, purchase commitments, and associated reserves. However, the immediate financial hit may only scratch the surface. If the current restrictions persist, Nvidia will in fact lose up to $22 billion in annual revenue for all of FY2026 tied to H20 sales to China.
The implications extend far beyond the H20 or the loss this year. The latest export controls place Nvidia at risk of losing access to the entire future GPU market in China—the world’s second-largest in terms of computing demand. Upcoming products like the B20 and B30, Nvidia’s lower-tier Blackwell variants, are also unlikely to meet compliance thresholds, as their memory bandwidth and capacity may still exceed regulatory limits. In short, Nvidia may be on the path to a structural but reluctant exit from a key growth market.
Keep in mind, we’re only referring to the “chips” here, not the full stack of equipment such as interconnects, routers, and other supporting infrastructure required for a complete Nvidia GPU cluster. (See elaboration below)
- Nvidia’s Future in China: With the inability to sell the H20 and any more advanced GPUs, Nvidia’s data center GPU sales in China have effectively peaked. Going forward, growth in the Chinese market is likely to stagnate over the coming quarters and years. It is important to ask, can Nvidia find the data center revenue to replace the demand from China?
Simply put, Nvidia’s future revenue in China will increasingly rely on its gaming GPU segment—an area that is itself becoming more exposed to U.S. export controls, with latest and next-generation products at risk of additional restrictions.
Given that China accounts for an estimated 12–15% of Nvidia’s total annual revenue, the long-term strategic and financial impact of these limitations cannot be overlooked. It is important to ask, can Nvidia find the data center revenue to replace the demand from China?