@Olli_Koponen mainitsi aiemmin Druckenmillerin ajatuksen, että seuraa likviditeettiä, vähemmän fundamentteja.
Palauttelin Druckenmillerin ernomaisia juttuja omaan muistiini ja tämän jakaminen kenties auttaa täälläkin ymmärtämään paremmin Fedin puuhia ja sen vaikutuksia markkinalle. Tässä poimintoja hänen kommenteistaan:
*" The major thing we look at is liquidity, meaning as a combination of an economic overview. Contrary to what a lot of the financial press has stated, looking at the great bull markets of this century , the best environment for stocks is a very dull, slow economy that the Federal Reserve is trying to get going… Once an economy reaches a certain level of acceleration… the Fed is no longer with you… The Fed, instead of trying to get the economy moving, reverts to acting like the central bankers they are and starts worrying about inflation and things getting too hot. So it tries to cool things off… shrinking liquidity … [While at the same time] The corporations start having to build inventory, which again takes money out of the financial assets… finally, if things get really heated, companies start engaging in capital spending… All three of these things, tend to shrink the overall money available for investing in stocks and stock prices go down……
… Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets…
The pundits and fin-twit bears who’ve been shouting about impending doom and gloom, crying about how detached the market is from the “fundamentals”, don’t understand the most important fundamentals of them all: liquidity and sentiment.
The worse thing that could happen to this current bull market is for the economy to markedly pick up. That growth would spur inflation, which along with improved sentiment, would make the Fed a lot more comfortable tightening at a faster pace. Liquidity would then be pulled from the system and drive the stock market lower.
Don’t confuse the stock market with the economy. Understand that the market is forward looking and the biggest lever on future demand is liquidity. That’s why you need to understand the reaction function of the Federal Reserve."
Tuo tylsä ympäristö meillä olikin 2009–2017, kunnes koronnousut alkoivat tuntua 2018.
Nyt olemme palanneet kuin lähtöruutuun ja Fedin pitää taas roiskia minkä ehtii. Jos talous taas joskus kuumenee, Fed ei enää olekaan välttämättä niin kaveri miltä se nyt vaikuttaa…