Tuo on onneksi vain heidän ennustajien, jotka tekevät tätä viihteenä asiakkaille, näkemyksiä.
Sen sijaan pankin vetäjä, legendaarinen Jamie Dimon ei usko ennustuksiin vaan pankki varautuu kaikenlaisiin skenaarioihin. 
"Equity values, by most measures, are at the high end of the valuation range, and credit spreads are extremely tight. These markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing — modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates. I believe the odds are a lot lower than that. In the meantime, there seems to be an enormous focus, too much so, on monthly inflation data and modest changes to interest rates. But the die may be cast — interest rates looking out a year or two may be predetermined by all of the factors I mentioned above. Small changes in interest rates today may have less impact on inflation in the future than many people believe.
Therefore, we are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes — from strong economic growth with moderate inflation (in this case, higher interest rates would result from higher demand for capital) to a recession with inflation; i.e., stagflation. Economically, the worst-case scenario would be stagflation, which would not only come with higher interest rates but also with higher credit losses, lower business volumes and more difficult markets. Under these many different scenarios, our company would continue to perform at least okay. Importantly, being prepared means we can continue to help our clients no matter what the future portends."
https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2023/ar-ceo-letters.htm
Nostan tämän taas seuraavassa Vartissa, mutta Jamie huomauttaa hyvin myös miten inflaatio saattaa pitkässä juoksussa jäädä rakenteellisesti korkeammalle.
Miksi USA:lla menee niin lujaa? Edelleen, liittovaltio elvyttää minkä kerkeää. Kauan tämä jatkuu ja mihin tämä johtaa? Ken tietää.
“In spite of the unsettling landscape, including last year’s regional bank turmoil, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and the markets currently expect a soft landing. It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect.”
