Teksti Google translaten läpi:
The result of the model forecast for 2021 is raised to DKK 1,300-1,400 million. DKK after tax
April 6, 2021
With. No. 06/2021
Topdanmark A / S expects higher returns and solvency ratio in 2021
The result of the model forecast for 2021 is raised to DKK 1,300-1,400 million. DKK after tax
Based on preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2021 and a value adjustment of the property portfolio, the result of the model forecast for 2021 will be raised from DKK 1,000-1,100 million. DKK 1,300-1,400 million. DKK after tax. Based on both this excess return and a recalibration of the model for calculating the profit margin in Topdanmark Livsforsikring A / S (Liv), we expect a positive effect on the solvency ratio in Topdanmark A / S of around 30 percentage points. The main reasons for this are:
The financial markets have been more favorable than assumed in the presentation of the performance assumptions for 2021 in the annual report for 2020 (company announcement no. 02/2021), especially for shares and CLO’s. In the first quarter of 2021, Topdanmark Forsikring’s investments have thus yielded a
return that before tax is around DKK 170 million. DKK higher than previously assumed.
In Liv, the return is distributed between the customers and the equity. The part of the improvement in the return on investment in relation to the assumption that affects equity in the first quarter amounts to approx. 130 million NOK before tax. Of this, DKK 110 million is due. DKK a value adjustment of the property portfolio.
The claims trend in the first quarter of 2021 has been better than assumed in the annual report for 2020, especially because there have been no major weather events. At the same time, interest rates rose in the first quarter, which reduces the assumed combined ratio for the rest of the year. The assumed combined ratio for 2021 is therefore improved from 89-90 to 88-89, still before expiration. This will increase the assumed technical result in 2021 by approx. 100 mio. DKK before tax.
In total, the assumed improvement in return on investments and claims will cause an increase in tax of almost DKK 100 million. in 2021.
The model for calculating the profit margin in Liv has been recalibrated and adapted to the significant growth that Liv has shown in recent years. The profit margin on unit link products is raised from almost DKK 300 million. to a more market-compliant level of around DKK 1,050 million. DKK, while the profit margin on average interest rate products is largely unchanged.
The solvency ratio in Topdanmark A / S will be positively affected by both the aforementioned higher profit expectations and by the higher profit margin in Liv. The solvency ratio in Topdanmark A / S is expected to increase by around 30 percentage points to around 200.
Topdanmark’s interim report for the first quarter of 2021 will be published, in accordance with the financial calendar, on 26 April 2021.