I think that the trigger for Sampo to acquire Topdanmark is when Top. makes an exit from its life-insurance business. In the news below Nordea estimates that the life-insurance business may be worth up to 75 dkk per share.
And as Sampo is not to keen on life-insurance business it would make sense for Sampo to wait until this is sold, as this would rationally imply that the share of Topdanmark would take a hit, as it is decreases operative income.
But then again, in this market environment, Topdanmarks share price could increase as the underlying risk would decrease.
Topdanmark/Nordea: Salg af livsforsikring kan frigive 75 kr. per aktie
11:13
Topdanmark vil kunne frigive en værdi på cirka 75 kr. per aktie ved et salg af sin forretning inden for livsforsikring, vurderer Nordea ifølge PLX.AI.
Det er dobbelt op i forhold til Nordeas tidligere estimat.
Effekten på indtjeningen per aktie vil være omkring 15 pct.
Nordeas anbefaling af Topdanmark er køb og kursmålet er 360 kr.
Topdanmark stiger onsdag morgen med 2,1 pct. til 318,80 kr.
Børsen skrev i marts, at Topdanmark undersøger mulighederne for at sælge Topdanmark Livsforsikring.
/ritzau/FINANS