Osakesijoittaminen

Seeing Machines (SEE)

Thanks for answering.
Seems pretty similar with Seye. The fundraise @125skr did more than fine.
So I put this stock to my watchlist . Maybe it get over 8$ resistant .

I’m no finance expert and I can’t vouch for the source of those earnings figures. But I would imagine that they do not include any part of our simulator sales - Au$125k each so far

It has been quoted by PMcG that our Automotive income will double YoY through those dates and beyond, so perhaps 2023 was chosen for a reason!

@TheLongestShot Sorry if I have missed the answer to this question, or if it simply is “cultural thing”, but you keep using words like “our” / “us” / “we” when you write about SEE.

What exactly is your relationship to this company?

7 tykkäystä

I own a bit of it :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

2 tykkäystä

Thanks for the answer!

1 tykkäys

I watched the SM CEO interview videos from SM web site (2019-2020) and noticed some interesting points.

  • some automotive programs have been delayed due to OEMs. We’ve received some cheap shots in this forum why Seye x and y projects are late, but it seems same problems with SM.

  • big management changes, not only CEO but also CFO and two non-executive directors (2019)

THE MOST INTERESTING PART

  • In September 2019 interview CEO goes through the FY19 performance (ends in June 2019). He tolds that SM has won 6 OEMs and 9 programs and there are 3 ongoing RFQs (all expansion, no new customers). In the end of the interview he’s summarizing and says there are three ongoing RFQs with 2 expansion and 1 new customer. The interviewer asks did you say 1 expansion and 2 new customers? CEO: yes.

So three different combinations within one interview (3+0, 2+1, 1+2). I don’t know what to think? A new CEO who wasn’t on top of details?

  • Story continues: 2/2020 CEO announces Japan and Korea as their current focus areas, no mention about ongoing RFQs etc

  • 11/2020 FY 2020 (ends in June 2020) report: still 6 OEMs and 9 programs, no mention about Korean or Japanese wins

MEANWHILE IN SWEDEN

  • Korean OEM win announced in October 2020
  • altogether 6 new OEMs won in 2020

SM camp discusses mostly about Qualcomm cooperation, billions of fleet kilometers etc. They all may have significant impact on SM performance in the coming years. But when looking at the past year with new OEMs or design wins (however you call it), it’s very difficult to say that SM is leading the automotive OEM race (fleet business is different).

18 tykkäystä

SEE forum says that last year dw’s dont matter as it was all china. SEE did not bid for china dw’s due to strategy…

1 tykkäys

I think this is quite interesting. Most Asian DWs were Chinese, but that Korean OEM win stands out. A pure guess: 2020 was supposed to be the year where major Korean and Japanese OEMs choose their DMS, but corona produced delays?

i.e. if Seeing is to see DWs, they are going to come this year from East Asia as per the original strategy of 2020?

2 tykkäystä

And this is not even true, SEE is bidding in China. At least in FY 19 annual report a Chinese OEM win is mentioned.

3 tykkäystä

Yes, but that is Byton “Byton (company) - Wikipedia” Byton (company) - Wikipedia

The design team are in North America

1 tykkäys

@TheLongestShot Is there any new signs that SEE would be winning the OEMs in Japan? If the CEO has stated that Japan and Korea are their main focus areas, I would see this quite an important factor to win them.

@MultiTabs we have seen Seye hint about a group that must be Renault - Nissan ( & Mitsubishi?)

But on the other side GM are sharing battery and Supercruise technology with Honda.

We are waiting impatiently to see where Toyota lands

2 tykkäystä

Yeah, Toyota is very Interesting. We just have to wait and see :sunglasses:

1 tykkäys

Sorry, but I trust a professional analyst 100x more than one forumists imagination :smiley:
(not trying to be rude, but we can’t rely on imagining - facts / best knowledge available matters)

I think finances are very important, has to have some solid vision of that to be successful in the long run. Nice business idea with bad numbers doesn’t work. Boring business with good numbers works.

I try to understand companys product, competitive advantages, competion, finances, insiders position etc. A good analyst helps you a lot to get started. (Bad analyst maybe not so much)

11 tykkäystä

Sorry lazy, I should have shown their words which are normally “I have attached no value to aviation, so that remains a possible upside” until the aviation market in general turns up, or we receive one of the imminent aviation deals we don’t know the scale.
But, I would suggest that it may just blow your socks off!

L3Harris have an MOU with us already and CAE have already worked with us on Full Flight Simulators. We are in civil and military, fixed wing and helicopter

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://mobile.twitter.com/seeingmachines/status/1323919158678036480&ved=2ahUKEwjO1trkmoDuAhUQiFwKHQMVBcsQjjgwAHoECAEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw18fUS4pob5_1S20aRsP6eZ

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx%3Fid%3D201903080700052435S&ved=2ahUKEwidmpCdm4DuAhXKWRUIHRkxCG4QFjAEegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw1UallacxjSyZC-DA4kRY9T

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://twitter.com/seeingmachines/status/1100461456179560448%3Flang%3Den&ved=2ahUKEwjYo__Nm4DuAhWCRxUIHdcRDvEQjjgwAXoECAkQAg&usg=AOvVaw2NBwKbtwp5ugY--6o8xpVS

2 tykkäystä

Have you made calculations in which you have taken into account the number of flight simulators? For example, how many are produced per year? How much turnover could there be? lump sum or license revenue?

Edit:
I answer to myself: there are about 1,250 of them in the world. Although SEE sold the hardware to everyone (not the reality) it is still a fairly modest size business.

3 tykkäystä

@Pancake, We have looked at the annual volumes and what we could get for sale but it is probably going to be licenced.

It is not the annual volumes that matter as we can also retrofit at similar costs and it is more likely to be rental, with upgrades in the future so plenty of reliable predictable income.

So far we have sold for AUD125k/EUR 80000 each

But I can only imagine what value that would be (@lazyway)
Perhaps it is higher on the scale than socks, might be more than Ruddy Doors, I think it is :exploding_head:

Referring now to Ken Kroeger? How about the current CEO McGlove?

On November 2019 he said: “We don’t see in our three year planning cycle any further need to raise equity for working capital.”

~11 min

11 months later he’s asking more money (~10% dilution) and happy to get new US investors onboard.

It’s still too early to judge him (only 1,5 years as CEO), but it hasn’t been an easy start for him.

5 tykkäystä

@Kesa86, I’m glad you asked me that. I am not an expert in finance, but I think I can help you to understand.

When a company like Seeing Machines, Smart Eye (or even our children) are young, they are not profitable and need injections of cash. This is how our companies were funded. Then comes the time when you have reliable profit. But inbetween is the difficult time.

Ken had to fall on his sword after a bad fundraise. He thought there was enough cash, but after supply issues with the manufacturing of our new Guardian (gen 2) product we could not sell devices to our new contracts, so cash flow stopped, he tried to hold on, but then the market decided to get its pound off flesh and asked for a lower price.

That was the history lesson. We all got our fingers burnt, but it had a silver lining. The brave investors had an excellent chance to increase our holdings far more than we would have considered previously.

Ok, so in Nov 2019 PMcG looked at the cash and our sales and was confident that we would get through. CES was coming and cars soon would be on the road.

In 2020, Covid happened. The Aussie government helped with wages, costs were reduced but sales were delayed. We could still get through, but it would be embarrassing to get caught again.

But this time, PMcG went early, and he went in a new direction. He toured American investors, they were keen for a big stake. They could buy in the market and push up the share price, the shareholders would benefit, but SEE wouldn’t get any cash. But PMcG did want them in as a multiplier, investment from a good name would increase attention and bring in more US funds and PIs. So when 10% went to Federated Hermes, at a small discount, the share price went up, and has kept going up. It ensures that we have plenty of cash, and now our market valuation is larger, other funds can now look at us and invest.

3 tykkäystä

So small delay in sales (yet nice 25% growth) and another fund raise was pulled forward at least two years?

For me it sounds like CEO has gambled a year ago and communicated very optimistically many things (and hoping for the best to come) in order to convince their customers and investors.

In this light I obviously question his latest statements as well. Maybe time will tell there was no actual reason to doubt him.

6 tykkäystä