SoFi Technologies - Pankkialan disruptoija Yhdysvalloissa

Vetoapua Citin osta suosituksesta tälle päivälle.

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Sofiin ja opintolainojen purkutalkoisiin liittyen läpikäyntiä

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4683684-sofi-stock-analyzing-impact-of-student-loan-debt-cancellation-plan

Demystifying The Student Loan Market

As you may know, here in the US, we have roughly $1.74T in outstanding student loan debt (of which $1.6T is federal debt). For private lenders like SoFi, Navient (NAVI), Sallie Mae (SLM), and Nelnet (NNI), this federal student debt load of $1.6T represents an opportunity pool for refinancing, i.e., origination and interest revenues. Now, as I see it, federal debt cancellation can potentially hurt companies like SoFi in several ways:

  • Reduction in Loan Portfolio: SoFi’s student loan business is primarily focused on refinancing. If the federal government were to cancel a significant portion of student debt, it would reduce the overall amount of debt available for refinancing. Hence, federal debt cancellation would lead to reduced demand for SoFi’s services and a shrinking of its loan portfolio.
  • Decreased Revenue: With a reduction in the amount of student debt outstanding, SoFi’s revenue from interest payments and loan origination fees could decrease. And this would negatively impact the company’s profitability, especially if it didn’t have alternative revenue streams to compensate for the loss.
  • Competitive Pressure: If federal debt cancellation reduces the demand for private student loan refinancing, it could intensify competition among financial institutions like SoFi that offer similar services. This could lead to pricing pressure and a reduction in profit margins.
  • Long-Term Effects on Business Model: Federal debt cancellation could signal a shift in government policy towards higher education financing. If the government continues to intervene in student debt markets, it may disrupt SoFi’s “refinancing-focused” business model for student loans.

In my view, SoFi’s student loan business is still an important vertical for the company; however, the outsized stock reactions we see around student debt cancellation announcements are very much emotional in nature. Going forward, SoFi’s Financial Services and Technology Platform are set to serve as the primary growth drivers of revenue and profits [as per management guidance]. Hence, long-term investors should treat all short-term fluctuations around incoming student debt cancellation news as nothing but noise.

Vaikutus siis rajallinen, jos lainoja perutaan jatkossa lisääkin. Lähinnä tämän uudelleenrahoituksen markkinaosuuksien osalta, mutta onneksi Sofi on nyt paljon muutakin.

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Teen nyt todella tyhmän kysymyksen, joka ehkä käsitelty jo.

Miten valtionhallinto voi canceloida lainat jotka joku on ottanut yksityiseltä rahoituslaitokselta, eikö siitä tule mitään kompensaatioita lainan antajalle?

Student loan forgiveness

The government can forgive federal student loans through programs like income-driven repayment (IDR) and Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF). Borrowers who’ve been defrauded by their schools may also be eligible for loan forgiveness.

lähde tuosta ylempää: http://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt

Opintolainojen ottajat voivat rahoittaa valtion myöntämät lainat halvemmalla korolla tai pidemmällä maksuajalla palveluntarjoajilta (esim Sofi).

Valtion lainojen mitätöinnit sitten pienentää markkinoilla olevien lainojen määriä ja sitä kautta uudelleenrahoituksen markkinan kokoa.

Eli nähdäkseni velkojen mitätöinnit koskee vain valtion myöntämiä lainoja. Ei siis yksityisten toimijoiden uudelleenrahoittamia lainoja. Jos tästä on jotain muuta tietoa, niin mielelläni näkisin siitä lähdettä.

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