Blumman katsauksessa arvioidaan Trumpin uusien terästulliuhkausten vaikutusta Euroopan terästeollisuuteen.
“Steel output in Europe may need to shrink by 6 million tons with a halt of exports to the US and 25% tariffs on steel-intensive sectors like automotive and machinery. These sectors rank among the EU’s top US exports so are prime targets for the Trump administration. Tariffs could cut EU exports to the US by 70%, lowering EU GDP by 1.5%, according to Bloomberg Economics. The EU sells one in 20 cars it produces to the US and about 18% of its US exports are machinery and appliances, which consume 17% of the EU’s steel. Steel demand from these sectors could fall by almost 2 million tons if exports take a hit. The knock to GDP may cut another 600,000 tons of demand from other sectors. Diverting the EU’s 3.6 million tons of US steel exports to other markets will be difficult, given the global glut and rising protectionism”
Mutta SSAB:n läsnäolo Yhdysvalloissa auttaa, ja se on suhteellisesti vähiten häviävä teräsyhtiö. Toisaalta yleensähän sitten kilpailu kiristyy muiden kanssa omalla markkinalla, jos tärkeä vientimarkkina heikkenee syystä tai toisesta.
