UB:n miehet availivat uusiutuvan energian hankesuunnittelun vaiheita @Antti_Jarvenpaa n haastattelussa. Asia saattaa kiinnostaa Magnoran seuraajiakin. Ainakin itseäni kiinnosti.
Puhuttiin esim “liito-oravista”, puolustuvoimista sekä sähköverkkoon kytkemisestä. Toiset enemmän binäärisiä tekijöitä ja toiset vähemmän.
Tässä on UB:n näkemys arvonluonnista:
Aurinkovoimalla ja sähkövarastoilla on paljon lyhyempi ja kevyempi projektikehitys, mutta periaate on sama. Magnora pyrkii myymään hankkeet tuossa “Hanke täysin luvitettu” (“Ready To Build”) -kohdassa, missä valtaosa arvonluonnista on jo tehty ja lisäarvonluonti vaatisi merkittäviä investointeja. Näin saadaan ROI-mielessä yhtiön haltuun se paras osuus arvoketjusta.
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/615152
Magnoralle virstanpylväsmaksuja aiemmin Etelä-Afrikassa Globeleqille myydyn projektin edistyttyä.
Vielä yksi tähän liittyvä maksu mahdollisesti tulossa H2/2024.
Itse itseäni siteeraten, tuolta tulee siis ilmeisesti Magnoran suuntaan 51 MNOK mammonaa:
Lähde: Q3 osarikatsaus.
“The final payment, at
financial close, is expected in the second half of 2024.”
EPS-laskelmissani kirjoitin
Onnea omistajille!
Kauan odotettu yhtenäinen ohjeistus Suomen aurinkovoimaloille on pian maalissa. Sen valmistuminen mahdollistaa räjähdysmäisen kasvun aurinkovoimalaprojekteille Suomessa.
Ympäristöministeriö on luvannut lähiviikkoina tuoda aurinkovoimala-alan toimijoille ohjeistuksen siitä mihin aurinkovoimaloita saa rakentaa ja mitä selvityksiä pitää tehdä.
Läpimenoajat ovat aidosti nopeita ja tästä vain nopeutuvat, mikä on houkuttelevaa sijoittajille epävarmassa ympäristössä. Tuulivoimahankkeissa menee tyypillisesti se 5-7 vuotta.
Prosessi voi mennä läpi vuodessa, mutta isomman voimalan kanssa kestää kauemmin.
Q1
Highlights from the quarter:
- Magnora’s portfolio of renewable projects reached 9.1 GW, all through organic growth.
- Helios’s Swedish project pipeline grew to 10 GW. To date, Helios has divested approximately 1 GW of solar PV projects. Magnora ASA owns 40 percent of Helios.
- Fast growth in Finland with Helios Nordic Energy Finland Oy building a portfolio of above 1.8 GW in Q1.
- Helios delivered the first large-scale pv project on Gotland to Nordic Solar AS: a 40 MW ready-to-build project with all necessary permits and a grid connection agreement.
- Magnora South Africa continues to grow its pipeline, passing 3 GW during Q1. A total of 278 MW was sold during 2023, with related milestone payments expected in 2024.
- On 7 March 2024, Magnora made a capital distribution of NOK 0.187 per share. Technically, Magnora repays paid-in capital in excess of the share’s par value, which can offer a tax advantage for some shareholders in certain jurisdictions.
- Hafslund Magnora Sol AS (Norway) signed a series of new land-lease agreements and progressed grid applications, environmental impact assessments and consenting work. The technical capacity of the portfolio is now above 900 MW split between more than 20 projects.
- Net cash generated from operating activities was negative NOK 22.6 million due to high activity in the quarter.
- At the end of Q1, cash and cash equivalents decreased NOK 39.6 million to NOK 308.0 million mostly due to the Group returning capital to shareholders, funding to Magnora Offshore Wind, Kustvind and Magnora UK PV.
On 15 April, the board resolved to substitute the periodic dividend with an extraordinary dividend: subject to AGM approval, Magnora will transfer 70 per cent of its legacy business (aka Hermana Holding ASA) to shareholders.
Portfolio kasvoi kvartterissa 7,766 GW → 9,091 GW. Noin +17% kvartaalikasvua orgaanisesti 
Kaikilla markkinoilla tulee tällä hetkellä kasvua ja tuo Etelä-Afrikan bisnes on lähtenyt hyvin käyntiin 
Kohta pitää taas nostaa ohjeistusta, kun toi 11 GW menee tänä vuonna varmaankin rikki 
Olisko toi Magnoran valtava veroetu sitten kuitenkin siirtymässä Hermanalle legacy spin-offin mukana? 
Bisneskohtainen portfolio:
Jako teknologian ja maan mukaan:
Uhkailevat pääoman palautuksella (=käytännössä lisäosingoilla). Mihinkäs ne aiemmin aloitetut omien ostot jäi? 
Saattoi olla osakkeella niin surkea likviditeetti, ettei toteutus pörssin sääntöjen mukaisesti ollut kovin mielekästä? En ole seurannut vaihtoa ja laitojen dynamiikkaa yhtiön osalta, mutta mutulla tällainen mahdollisuus.
Kyllä pienivaihtoisemmillakin kuin Magnora on ollut takaisinosto-ohjelmia, joissa saatu ostettua prosentteja yhtiöstä (esim. Omda, ticker csam). Näillä norjalaisilla näyttää vaan olevan myös Suomen tapaan aktiivinen utbytte parti.
Osarin webcastissa ei haastattelua tosiaan ollut, mutta onneksi Finansavisen haastatteli Magnoran toimaria norjaksi. Käänsin tekoälyllä haastiksen enkuksi 
Haastattelija:
Then I will hopefully bring today’s guest. He was with us from London today. Albert Collett at Arctic Asset Management believes that Magnora’s project portfolio is worth far more than the current share price suggests and highlights the stock as one of its recommendations. So it is nice to be able to welcome Erik Sneve, CEO of Magnora, with us from London. Welcome, Erik.
Erik Sneve:
Thank you very much, Marius.
Haastattelija:
I start with the structural. You will probably be asked if it is safe on every occasion you meet inestor analysts and others who follow you. This spin-off of the legacy business in good Norwegian … You have received license income on these production ships. What is the status there now?
Erik Sneve:
No, everything is going according to plan according to my CFO and board secretary and our lawyers. And then it seems that we in Akten are going to be laid in the first week of June. Around June 7. And that there might be an IPO the following week. We’ll come out with an exact timetable on that, but I’ve done a good bit of work since last summer. To achieve this carve-out, that kind of fission, as we call it in good Norwegian.
Haastattelija:
For those who have not followed the process, according to your plan it means that you will get a greener rating, and that your shareholders will receive shares in the legacy business that will be listed, right?
Erik Sneve:
Yes, we have two companies now that have strong organic cash flow that can live independently. And there are green investors who cannot invest in Magnora. If we own Oil and Gas, then it works well on each front. And it has also been the largest shareholders in the company who have expressed a desire for it for a long time, because it has a very different cash flow profile. So this is going to be very exciting.
There will be a distribution of shares, and then 70% of the company will be distributed to Magnora. Shareholders. And the company will then be called Hermana AC. And you pay nothing for the share. You get it as a free share.
Haastattelija:
And when you’re left with 30%, don’t you get any oil pouring into Morningstar? Or others like that all types of investors can invest in you, then?
Erik Sneve:
Very good question.
We spent some time figuring it out. There are many consultants who offer ESG reporting and things like that. It’s really just that simple that less than 5% of the top line must come from fossil fuels. If you own less than 50% of the company, it is considered an associated company. Then it comes in the middle of the profit and loss account under operating profit as an associated company. Then it doesn’t count according to that opinion.
Haastattelija:
There we got the free advice, signed by the boss in Magnora. But let’s talk a little about what you do and will be doing for a living in the future. Namely the renewable projects. You had news about the investment country South Africa not many days ago. Can you tell us a bit about the status there? Because there you have a rather large project together with Globelek.
Erik Sneve:
Yes, it is very exciting. After all, we entered South Africa in January-February 2021. So we have owned the company for almost three years. And it has been a very nice journey. We actually made an acquisition there. A small consulting company. Paid for around NOK 10 million. Used a further … Additional around NOK 30 million. In recent years, 40 million in total. And our first sale of a portfolio of over 3,000 MW, we are now bringing in over NOK 50 million. Globelec, owned by the Norwegian state and the British authorities, is said to have built a battery of 153 MW with a duration of four hours.
And they will spend NOK 4 billion on that. That corresponds to around 8,500 Tesla models in batteries. South Africa has opened up a capacity market for batteries.
So that you help and contribute with capacity in the network when the power goes down. And as you know, it goes down quite often there. So it has been a real breakthrough for us. It is the first project we sold, and that they then won the auction. We could of course choose to sell to others, but the fact that we were able to choose the winner as well, is a real feather in the cap for the whole team down there. And for the two in Oslo who follow up on this in addition. So it’s a big anniversary. And we think South Africa will be very exciting in the coming months and throughout the year and the next few years. So we are working on accelerating our business plan.
Haastattelija:
Yes, because … Did I keep saying the state grid and power company … I don’t know if the water board is too strict, but it has had big challenges in the power grid in South Africa. Many have pointed out that the political situation is not going in the right direction. You are not worried about betting further there after collecting such a nice profit?
Erik Sneve:
No, I think there are disagreements there, like in every other country. Eskom has struggled due to the coal lobby. I will not go into an exact analysis of it. But they have produced around 300 TWh in previous years, until 2016. And now they produce around 200 TWh. So just to get up to the level they’ve been at previously, Escon’s load factor has to go up by 30%, and that’s not happening. Therefore, they also accelerate renewable energy. And many of the customers of GlobalEq and others want to go partly offline. This is where the renewables market can grow very large. It could be at least 100-200 TWh just that. We have lots of projects, lots of lambs and very good, professional customers. It is a market that is very mature in relation to renewable energy. There were elections there later this year, but there are probably no politicians there who want to worsen… The power supply to the private market and the business market is a big problem. We’ve had up to 16 network shutdowns per day, so it’s unpredictable to fry an egg.
Haastattelija:
We have to talk a little about … Now the shareholders will be distributed the shares in Hermana towards the summer. Tell us a bit about how you think this year about further dividends versus using the money you have left over on new projects. I see that you are repeating the guidance that you will sell off between 5 and 625 MW this year.
Erik Sneve:
We have said that we are at the dividend rate we have made. And it has been 50 million annually. And this quarter, we then replace dividends from cash with dividend shares. And according to the auditor and others who have looked there, that figure is much higher than NOK 50 million for the dividend you get. That corresponds to tenfold, actually. We are giving a share dividend this quarter. As we bring in more cash, we will increase the cash dividend evenly or with a one-off dividend, depending on the size. But we have good prospects for a much higher degree of cash conversion. Conversion of sales into income when delivering projects.
And also some of the milestone structures, i.a. with GlobalEq. We also hope for positive development with Evolar. And we are also working on various Farm Down and other things that may affect the dividend strategy in 2024.
Haastattelija:
You are still sitting on just over 300 million in cash. Some money not out to Manora Offshore Wind. But what are the big projects this year that will require a lot of capital?
Erik Sneve:
It’s not really that much capital. It requires a little more capital. We have birds and mammals with overflights in Scotland. And then we put out a buoy now, which costs around NOK 35 million over two years. So then the costs go up a bit there, to mature the project. With Skotvin in the portfolio, it’s good to have a little extra money. Because the players you discuss with there have big wallets. And they don’t take people with NOK 50-100 million in the bank particularly seriously. We must have a solid cash balance until we do a farm down at Magnora Offshore Vin.
Haastattelija:
For those who remember when you visited us on the podcast a while back, don’t you have any ambitions to become a kind of mini sea grove?
Erik Sneve:
No, we do not have a low enough cost of capital. And there is a market for much bigger players. So we stick to what we are good at. And that is securing land, developing land on behalf of landowners, obtaining concessions, permits. Procurement management, client management and technical management of renewable projects.
Haastattelija:
You were clear early on that the Norwegian offshore wind venture was not profitable. Then the vast majority of people followed you after that. Inflation has affected a good number of industrial projects, but also the renewable industry. The interest rate is ticking quite a bit upwards again. Some central banks are pushing for interest rate cuts. Does it affect your view of the possibilities you have and the calculations you make when you potentially go into new things in the future?
Erik Sneve:
Electricity prices have gone before interest costs, so it hasn’t really caused any major problems. We have had many sell-offs after the interest rate peak last year to Globalec. And is in good discussions and dialogues. And we don’t notice that with the industrial customers. But I think for these infrastructure funds, they have less to deal with with high interest rates. Because then the pension funds can choose to use the money elsewhere. So we have not sold infrastructure funds to any particular extent. And it has actually been quite good to deal with power companies and energy companies and state-owned companies that
Shall build out renewable energy that uses equity, and not loan interest. Those who invest in these projects are basically looking at cash loans for the next 30-40 years. And we look a bit through the spot price and interest cost in the short picture.
Haastattelija:
Erik Sneve, CEO of Magnora, thank you very much for joining us from London.
Alkuperäinen lähde:
MGN: DANSKE BANK NEDJUSTERER KURSMÅL TIL 45 FRA 48, GJENTAR KJØP
Tänään klo 07.47 ∙ TDN Finans
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Danske Bank nedjusterer kursmålet på Magnora til 45 kroner pr aksje, fra 48 kroner, og gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling, ifølge en oppdatering fra meglerhuset tirsdag.“Vår summen-av-delene verdsettelse ekskluderer nå legacy-virksomheten og reflekterer høyere faste kostnader og noe smalere fortjenestemargin i Helios”, skriver meglerhuset om nedjusteringen av kursmålet.
“Osasumma-arvostuksessamme on nyt jätetty pois perinnöllinen liiketoiminta ja se heijastelee korkeampia kiinteitä kustannuksia ja hieman kapeampaa voittomarginaalia Helioksessa”, arvopaperinvälitysyhtiö kirjoittaa hintatavoitteen laskemisesta.
Eli Hermannin arvo siis alle 3 nok per osake Dansken mielestä?
Pareto
MGN – Minor estimate revisions on the back of Q1’24 report • We make only minor estimate revisions on the back of the Q1’24 report, keeping our FY’24-25E sales figures of NOK 139/208m unchanged while slightly increasing opex in the Projects segment (related to development and M&A) to reflect increased investment pace going forward by NOK 20m to NOK 93m for FY’24E • Hence FY’24E EPS is lowered to NOK 2.9/sh from NOK 3.5/sh, while the FY’25E is lifted from 4.5/sh to 4.7/sh • Magnora had a cash position of NOK 308m at the end of Q1’24 and with no debt, low cash burn and various milestone payments to be received during 2024, MGN should be well positioned to further increase shareholder distributions during 2024 (as the company still targets), even though the quarterly cash distribution in Q2’24 is substituted by shares in the new FPSO legacy business spin off (as a dividend in kind) • Our NOK 43/sh TP is based on a SOTP of Magnora’s developer organizations (Helios constituting the lion’s share, valued at 6x '24E EV/EBIT), in addition to 50% risked contributions from the Evolar earnout and the Western Isles FPSO redeployment (which is to be spun out as a separate listed company by the end of Q2’24). The Scotwind site is valued at twice the option fee, due to early grid connection
90 megawattia myyty. Ja puita.
Tänään agm. Teamsilla pääsee vissiin osallistumaan. P1 toki on ykkösluokassa lentämässä kohti Osloa atm, mutta meille muille.
Nämä projektit taidettiin myydä jo joulukuussa 2022 ja nyt tuli ilmoitus luovutuksesta asiakkaalle RtB-vaiheeseen pääsyn myötä. Ymmärtääkseni rahat näistä saatiin siis jo aiemmin, joten vaikutus kurssiin lienee pieni, vaikka megawatit ovat isoja. Voi toki olla, että tähän liittyy myös jotain virstanpylväsmaksuja.
Joka tapauksessa positiivinen uutinen, koska tyytyväisillä asiakkailla on tapana ostaa lisää.
Edit: kaivelin vanhoja muistiinpanoja ja olin ottanut näiden kohdalla talteen seuraavan: “will be ready-to-build and delivered to Commerz Real`s Klimavest impact fund in 2023 and start to become operational in 2024.”
Tämän perusteella luovutus tapahtui hieman alkuperäisestä aikataulusta jäljessä.
Linkataan nyt tällainenkin uutinen, joka tuli tuossa aiemmin vastaan. Liittyy siis Evolariin ja olisikin kiva, jos tässä lähiviikkoina tulisi ilmoitusta Evolarin milestonemaksusta:
”Due to some external interest created by the listing process, Pareto has also been mandated to explore possible strategic alternatives for Hermana in parallel with the ongoing listing process. Such alternatives could include a partial sale, or sale of the whole company, or a merger. The process is also expected to generate after the listing. No assurances can be given as to the outcome or timing of such process.”
Ei tule meille ketjussa yllätyksenä 
Tuskin tuo Hermana kovin pitkään itsenäisenä jatkaa, koska aitoja toimintaedellytyksiä ei mielestäni noin pienellä firmalla ole 
Vähentää kyllä Hermanan osakkeen myyntihaluja nuo puheet kun ne osakkeet joskus saapuu salkkuun. Tuossa puhutaan nyt 6 NOK hinta-arviosta. Ylempänä Dansken arvioksi voidaan arvailla hermannille n. 3 NOK.
