Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC) - Energy Storage Solutions

Taustaa

Fluence Energy tuottaa energiavarastoja sekä niiden ylläpitoon sovelluksia ja palveluita.

Fluence oli ja on edelleen osittain Siemensin ja AES:n yhteisyritys ja listautui Nasdaqiin 28.10.2021. Tässä yhteydessä pääomia yhtiöön tuli hieman alle miljardi USD.

Oman mielenkiinnon herätti erityisesti odotettu kääntyminen pääomia nielevästä kasvuyrityksestä kannattavaksi. Jos ei ihan joka kvartaali vielä, mutta siintää selkeästi näköpiirissä. Valuaatio ainakin tätä kirjoitettaessa vielä kohtuullinen huomioiden kasvun.

Lisäksi toimiala on mielenkiintoinen, nopeasti kehittyvä ja kasvava. Rautapuolen toimituksissa kilpailu on kovaa, joten bruttokatteet ovat tiukassa, joten palvelupuolella tulee tehdä tulosta.

Lukuja

Listautumisessa Fluence sai merkittävät pääomat , joilla toimintaa on pyöritetty ja 2024 näyttäisi nyt olevan käänteentekevä pääomien polttamisesta kannattavaksi ja kääntymisestä positiiviselle kassavirralle. Miljardista ehdittiin polttaa noin puolet

8.5.2024 julkaistu Q2/2024 luvut (Fiskaali on poikkeava kalenterivuodesta)

  • Free cash flow1 was approximately $87.8 million in the first half of fiscal year 2024, compared to approximately negative $164.5 million in the same period last year.
  • Muuttuvia tekijöitä on paljon riippuen projektien toimituksista ja niiden laskutusajankohdista.
  • Bruttokate n. 10%, eli iso osa projekti- ja rautamyyntiä
  • Jatkuvaa laskutusta 80M$ / vuodessa


Muuta huomioitavaa

Blueorca julkaisi shorttirapsan sijoittajien iloksi. Tällä on oma osansa nykyiseen arvostustasoon.
Pääaiheena Fluencen materiaaleissa mainitut oikeusjutut Siemensin kanssa sekä parit projektit, joissa epäselvyyksiä sekä niiden mahdollista oikeuskäsittelyä.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/65d74d2f4fd1427f95e9940b/1708608817303/Blue+Orca+Short+Fluence+Energy+Inc+(NASDAQ+FLNC).pdf
PDF:nä tänne talteen myös, jos katoaa tuolta linkin takaa:
Blue+Orca+Short+Fluence+Energy+Inc+(NASDAQ+FLNC).pdf (3,2 Mt)

Näihin on toki aiheelliset vastineet annettu: https://ir.fluenceenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fluence-responds-misleading-short-seller-report

Q10 materiaalissa niitä lakijuttuja ja mahdollisia kustannuksia avattu. Nuolen alla lisää tarkemmin

Q10 Legal Contingencies

From time to time, the Company may be involved in litigation relating to claims that arise out of our operations and businesses and that cover a wide range of matters, including, but not limited to, intellectual property matters, commercial and contract disputes, insurance and property damage claims, labor and employment claims, torts and personal injury claims, product liability claims, environmental claims, and warranty claims. The Company accrues for litigation and claims when it is probable that a liability has been incurred and the amount of loss can be reasonably estimated. It is reasonably possible that some matters could have an unfavorable result to the Company and could require the Company to pay damages or make expenditures in amounts that could be material.

2021 Overheating Event at Customer Facility

On September 4, 2021, a 300 MW energy storage facility owned by one of our customers experienced an overheating event. Fluence served as the energy storage technology provider designed and installed portions of the facility, which was completed in fiscal year 2021. No injuries were reported from the incident. The facility was taken offline as teams from Fluence, our customer, and the battery designer/manufacturer investigated the incident. Our customer released initial findings in the second fiscal quarter of 2022 on what it contends is the root cause of the incident. At this time, Fluence cannot comment on or accept the customer’s stated findings. The customer’s stated findings, if ultimately confirmed and proven, could relate to certain scopes of work for which Fluence or its subcontractors could be responsible. The customer’s stated findings, however, could also relate to certain scopes of work for which other parties were responsible and/or relate to other causes, including the design and installation of portions of the facility over which Fluence did not have responsibility or control. The customer has alleged that Fluence is liable for the incident. Fluence has denied liability. No formal legal proceedings have been commenced, but it is reasonably possible that litigation may result from this matter if a resolution cannot be achieved. Any such dispute would also likely include claims by Fluence and counterclaims by the customer relating to disputed costs arising from the original design and construction of the facility. The customer announced in July of 2022 that a large portion of the facility was back online. We are currently not able to estimate the impact that this incident may have on our financial results. To date, we do not believe that this incident has impacted the market’s adoption of our products.

2022 Overheating Event at Customer Facility

On April 18, 2022, a 10 MW energy storage facility in Chandler, Arizona owned by AES experienced an overheating event. Fluence served as the energy storage technology provider for the facility, which was completed in 2019, and Fluence previously provided maintenance services for the facility. There were no injuries. The facility has been taken offline as teams from Fluence, AES, and the battery manufacturer continue to investigate the incident. We are currently not able to estimate the impact, if any, that this incident may have on our reputation or financial results, or on market adoption of our products.

2023 Project-Related Litigation

In October 2023, Fluence filed a complaint in the Superior Court of California, Contra Costa County, against Diablo Energy Storage, LLC, Empire Business Park, LLC, the Bank of New York Mellon and others, seeking approximately $37.0 million in damages arising from the supply and construction of an energy storage facility for the defendants, including for the defendants’ nonpayment of contractual amounts owed. On or about November 10, 2023, Defendant Diablo Energy Storage, LLC filed a cross-complaint against Fluence, seeking a minimum of $25.0 million of alleged damages and disgorgement of all compensation received by Fluence for the project, in the amount of approximately $230.0 million. The disgorgement claim was based upon an alleged deficiency in Fluence’s contractor license. Fluence denies the allegations in the cross-complaint and intends to vigorously defend them and to enforce our claims against the defendants. We are currently not able to estimate the impact, if any, that this litigation may have on our reputation or financial results, or on market adoption of our products.


Tuotevalikoimaa

Rautaa

Fluence tuottaa energiavarastoja tuotantolaitosten yhteyteen sekä varavirraksi käyttöympäristöihin

Ja sovelluksia

Fluence Mosaic™

maximizes renewables and storage revenue with intelligent, automated bidding software, so you can deploy and use more clean energy with higher ROI.

Nispera™ APM Software

Nispera maximizes the value of solar, wind, hydro, and storage assets from any provider by going beyond traditional Asset Performance Management (APM) to offer the most comprehensive set of AI-based asset performance optimization. Focus on the highest priority issues and get results that drive down costs and increase revenue.

Sekä tietysti palveluita


Asiakkaita


Artikkeli Seeking Alphassa, josta osa yllä olevasta lainattua

Fluence Energy: A Strong Buy After The Drop

12 tykkäystä

Fluence ei ollut aiemmin itselle tuttu, joten nopean läpikäynnin yhteydessä kirjattu asioita avaukseen.

Avauspositio on harkinnassa, en siis vielä ole omistajalistalle päätynyt.

Teknisesti osakekurssi on paineessa tällä hetkellä, joten odottelen vielä parempaa ostoajankohtaa.

6 tykkäystä

Materiaalia lienee maailma täynnä näiden osalta, mutta tässä yksi

Edit: Jatketaan tähän lisämateriaalia

BESS markkinaa

Top-5 viime vuoden heinäkuussa Sungrow, Fluence, Tesla, Wärtsilä :finland: , Hyperstrong

Fluence kärjessä, kun huomioidaan pipeline

Globaalisti Sungrow ja Fluence kärjessä, Pohjois-Amerikassa Tesla. Näistä Wärtsilä puuttuu :thinking:


lähde: Sungrow Dominates Global BESS Market with 16% Market Share, Wood Mackenzie Report Reveals - SolarQuarter

Fluence panostamassa nyt Pohjois-Amerikan suuntaan lisää, jossa Aasian ohella odotettavissa markkinan suurinta kasvua


lähde: Battery Energy Storage System Market - Global Size, Share & Industry Analysis [Latest]

4 tykkäystä

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4694124-fluence-energy-in-a-binary-world

Key Numbers Include:

i) $623 million revenue in the quarter.
ii) Third consecutive quarter of double-digit gross margin.
iii) Q2 2024 ended with $541 million cash, up $65 million from Dec. 31, 2023.
iv) $700 million of new orders, solutions business contracted 2.2 GWh, services business added 900 MWh, and digital business added 3.1 GW new orders.
v) Backlog of $3.7 billion gives strong visibility for future revenue.
vi) Based on customer feedback, continued strong revenue growth in fiscal '25 of ~35-40% from fiscal '24.
vii) Current pipeline is $16.3 billion (up $2.9 billion from last quarter) with expected conversion 50% probable over the next 24 months. An added comment about queues in the US is that there is ~1000 GW of renewable capacity waiting for a grid connection!

The fact that just one Seeking Alpha author has covered the company in the past 90 days (“strong buy”) is remarkable. The treatment by Wall Street is different, with coverage by 25 analysts (14 “strong buy,” 7 “buy,” 3 “hold” and 1 “sell”). Wall Street is very positive about the company and this contrasts with Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating of “Hold.” I find Seeking Alpha’s “D” for “growth” a mystery. Seeking Alpha has Fluence consensus estimates for PE falling from 81.9 in 2024, to 19.9 in 2025 and 12.5 in 2026. Consensus Earnings/share growth is 312% in 2025 and 59.0% in 2026. How do these numbers result in a “D” for “growth” and "C-"for profitability?

Ei siis paljon ole piensijoittajilla kiinnostusta yritykseen :sweat_smile:
Nordnetissäkin vain 208 omistajaa kirjattuna


lähde: marketwatch

5 tykkäystä

Kiitos ketjun avaamisesta @kettunen !

Olen itse ostanut tätä syyskuussa 2022, ja näköjään tällä hetkellä ollaan mukavasti plussan puolella :slight_smile: Näiden firmojen kanssa olen oppinut keskittymään isoon kuvaan, shorttirapsoja ja muuta tulee, mutta ei pidä liikaa säilkkyä.

Päädyin ostamaan tätä, koska tästä ei tule sellaiset start-up vibat vaan firma on lähtenyt spin-offina alan vakiintuneiden toimijoiden yhteistyöstä. Aika näyttää, miten tässä tarinassa käy :smiley:

4 tykkäystä

Suomi mainittu :finland:

Mäntsälän suunnille rakenteilla MW Storagen kanssa yhteistyössä 20MWh akkuprojekti.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/06/27/2905099/0/en/MW-Storage-and-Fluence-deepen-partnership-to-deliver-their-third-energy-storage-project-in-Finland.html

Ja Hollantiin vähän isompi setti 90MWh samalla kokoonpanolla

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/06/19/2900965/0/en/Fluence-and-Dispatch-Will-Deploy-the-Largest-Stand-Alone-Battery-Storage-Project-in-the-Netherlands.html

4 tykkäystä

Nyt oli kattava paketti, sopivasti sekä posia että negaa

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4703019-fluence-energy-caught-in-the-crossfire-why-i-am-not-investing

  • hintakilpailua odotettavissa, uusia kilpailijoita tulossa ja katteet paineessa
  • Fluence on silti hyvissä asemissa, mutta tulosta pitää tehdä ja nostettu bruttokate pidettävä.
  • Tase vahva ja kassavirta sekä tulos kääntynyt / kääntymässä plussalle
  • Q3 ja Q4 merkittäviä tuloksen kannalta. Näistä liikevaihto odotetaan painottuvan erityisesti Q4:lle.
  • Samoin FY2024 painotus on jo ennestään merkittävästi H2:lle.
5 tykkäystä

“Battery cell manufacturers are vertically integrating downstream”

Tämä taitaa olla suurin uhka BESS “integraattoreille”. Varastoissa itse akut ovat suurin kuluerä.

1 tykkäys

US-markkinalle projektia

Excelsior and Fluence to Deploy 2.2 GWh of Energy Storage Projects Using Domestically Manufactured Battery Systems Starting in 2025

Jul. 30, 2024 9:00 AM ETFluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC)

GlobeNewswire

ARLINGTON, Va., July 30, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC), a leading global provider of energy storage solutions, services, and optimization software for renewables and storage, and Excelsior Energy Capital, a leading renewable energy infrastructure investor, announced an agreement to install 2.2 GWh of battery storage projects in the United States beginning in 2025. These U.S. projects will utilize domestically manufactured batteries, modules, and supporting systems.

Under the agreement, Excelsior will deploy Fluence’s Gridstack Pro product line to deliver firm capacity and flexible power to support a more resilient U.S. electricity grid. These projects are anticipated to help foster a domestic supply chain for critical clean tech manufacturing in the U.S. and directly support American jobs and battery storage production capacity. Battery cells for the 2+ GWh of projects will primarily be manufactured in Tennessee and battery modules will be manufactured by Fluence in Utah.

mielenkiintoiseksi tekee paikallinen akku- ja kokoonpanotuotanto.

”We are excited to support Excelsior on the deployment of 2.2 GWh of Gridstack Pro. This deal is a testament to the competitiveness of U.S.-manufactured battery storage systems,” said John Zahurancik, Fluence President, Americas. “Excelsior and other customers see U.S. manufactured products as a valuable way to mitigate uncertainties in their projects while supporting American jobs and local economic activity.”

Announced in October, Gridstack Pro is one of the first energy storage solutions expected to qualify as domestic content under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Recent guidance updates from the U.S. Department of Treasury have helped accelerate commercial activity in support of these U.S.-manufactured products.

2 tykkäystä

FYQ3 julkaistu, analyytikoiden odotusten yli ja ennätysmäärä tilauksia ja backlogia.

EPS napsun plussalla, kuten pitikin. Ja kassavirta hienosti vihreällä. :muscle:

Koko vuoden liikevaihtoennustetta kuitenkin viilattiin tarkemmaksi ja hiottiin nimenomaan yläpäästä pois. Samoin EBITDA viilattu tarkemmaksi, enemmän yläosasta. :thinking:
ARR kuitenkin nostettu 80M$ → 100M$ :+1:

  • Fluence Energy press release (NASDAQ:FLNC): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.01 beats by $0.13.
  • Revenue of $483.3M (-9.9% Y/Y) beats by $20.52M.
  • Updated Fiscal Year 2024 GuidanceThe Company is narrowing its fiscal year 2024 total revenue guidance range to $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion (midpoint $2.75 billion) from the prior range of $2.7 billion to $3.3 billion (midpoint $3 billion). This change reflects signed contracts for which the majority of the associated revenue is now expected to be realized in fiscal 2025.
3 tykkäystä

Q3 transkripti
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4713263-fluence-energy-inc-flnc-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript

Ja investor presentation
https://ir.fluenceenergy.com/static-files/6d63652f-b61b-423c-87c6-cf95750453af


Poimintana heti transskriptin alusta:

Beginning on Slide 4, we deliver strong financial performance, more specifically, we recognized $483 million of revenue and earned 17.5% adjusted gross margin, which brings our year-to-date gross margin slightly ahead of the 10% to 12% target.

Second, we recorded adjusted EBITDA of $15.6 million, which puts us on track to deliver profitable growth for our shareholders. Third, we added $1.3 billion of new contracts, setting a new quarterly record for us and bringing our backlog to an all-time high level of $4.5 billion. Fourth, we finished the quarter with $80 million of annual recurring revenue for our services and digital business, reaching the level a quarter earlier than our target.

And finally, to our proactive approach to cost and working capital management, we generated $64 million free cash flow for the first 9 months and ended the current quarter with $513 million in cash.

Gross profit alkaa olla tavoitteessa 10-15%, joka taitaa olla nostettu aiemmasta 10-12% :thinking:

US-markkinalle aika merkittävä kotimaisen valmistuksen etu

As you may recall, we started the process of procuring U.S. cell capacity before the IRA came out and signed an agreement more than a year ago with ASC to purchase U.S. cell from the Tennessee facility. The U.S. manufacturer cells will go into our battery modules, which I will touch on more in a moment. By combining U.S. cells and U.S. modules, we believe that we will easily meet the 40% domestic content threshold. Thus enabling our customers to capture the incremental 10% investment tax credit on their projects.

Ja kova kasvu jatkumassa myös FY25

Finally, looking ahead to fiscal '25, we continue to expect strong growth, as Julian discussed, using our original fiscal '24 revenue guidance midpoint of $3 billion as a base we reaffirm our expected fiscal '25 revenue growth of 35% to 40%.

3 tykkäystä

US-paikallinen tuotanto aloitettu Utahissa, kennot valmistetaan Tennesseessä

“Our proactive approach to securing U.S.-manufactured battery cells and rapid initiation of module production has provided us with an advantage in delivering a storage solution that allows our customers to capture the Inflation Reduction Act’s domestic content bonus tax credit,” said John Zahurancik, Fluence President, Americas. “We are moving quickly to deliver domestically manufactured energy storage solutions that meet our customers’ needs, reduce supply chain risks for projects, and support the nation’s energy independence.”

Recently announced increases in Section 301 tariffs on batteries imported from China underscore the need for a robust domestic supply chain. With these tariffs set to rise to 25 percent in 2026, Fluence’s U.S.-based manufacturing strategy is critical for meeting customer needs in a shifting global trade landscape. In addition to U.S. manufacturing, Fluence is committed to cybersecure products. Fluence system software is developed by Fluence in the United States, Germany, and India.

Ja päivän agendaan sopivasti Trump vetämässä IRA:lta mattoa alta :cold_face:

While several clean energy incentives under the IRA may find a lifeline, the US’s green agenda could be set back for years. We would expect a much stronger focus on enhancing oil and gas production with substantial environmental regulation swipe-outs and weakened roles on green technology innovation

1 tykkäys

Tulee näköjään Kauppalehteenkin Fluencen tiedotteita

ERLANGEN, Germany, Oct. 08, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Fluence Energy GmbH, a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) (“Fluence”), a global market leader delivering intelligent energy storage, operational services, and asset optimisation software, will supply and service a 58 MWh battery-based energy storage system to Statkraft for Germany’s largest hybrid solar and storage project.

The project in Zerbst, Saxony-Anhalt, will include a 47-megawatt solar park combined with a 16-megawatt battery-based energy storage system. The plant will be the largest hybrid project in Germany, with enough capacity to save around 32,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually, according to Statkraft’s calculations.

5 tykkäystä