@gadus laske nyt sinäkin meille joku skenaario 2021?
Itse en usko 2021 kaudelle tuollaiseen yli 35% kasvuun liikevaihdossa. Siksi kiinnostaa mihin päädytään 2020 q1-q4 jälkeen lähtötasona.
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Zloteihin olen kyllä koko ajan viitannut. Eipä noita tarvetta ole euroiksi muuttaa
Ei minua erityisemmin kiinnosta lähteä tekemään mitään skenaarioita kuluvalle vuodelle. Arvostus on maltillinen ja näkymät hyvät niin tuo on aika epäoleellista loppujen lopuksi. En näe mitään hirveää karhuskenaariota, jonka takia tulos tulisi alas reippaasti
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Sain lisävastauksia lisäkysymyksiin, uskaltaisin sanoa, että omat tulkinnat olisivat niiden perusteella aika hyvällä tolalla. Palaan asiaan huomenna.
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Tässäpä esitettyjä kysymyksiä ja niihin vastauksia Livechat IR puolelta: *editoitu alkuperäistä ja lisättu pari jatkokysymysta ja vastaukset. EDIT kohdassa löytyy, kun selailee alaspäin.
Lisäksi järjestynee jonkinlainen esittely / haastattelu / jne tänne Inderes palveluun, ainakin Yu Gong sitä edistää.
Regarding the quarterly results, your growth rate was 45%, higher than in previous quarters. Do you foresee maintaining this level of growth also in the future given the impact of new pricing strategy as well as ChatBot’s increased contributions to revenues?
First of all, at this moment we don’t give forecast or publish guidance. Therefore, we can talk about the future in a limited way. And of course, there is a lot of uncertainty about any forward-looking statement.
Saying that we are optimistic about the prospects for further growth, incl. for which you are replacing (new products, pricing model change effect, high demand for our solutions).
On the other hand, in the coming quarters, we will hit a very high comparative base and it seems that maintaining this growth rate (year on year) would be extremely difficult.
North America is your biggest market at the moment. Do you see your growth coming also in the future from North America or are you putting extra effort to expand further to other regions and markets?
Our strategy is clear that our focus is on the US. There, the growth potential is greatest and trends are set there. However, we have clients in 150 countries around the world and we still get them everywhere (even very large ones).
You have now over 30,000 customers globally. Have you set a visionary target what that number could be in the future? 50,000 or 100,000 in 3-5 years for example?
30,000 was such a target! Now we do not have such a goal at this stage of development, the number of customers is a less important goal for us than it used to be.
When you sign a new client, are those typically totally new to using these kind of smart sales and marketing systems or is it so that they switch from your competitor’s system to using LiveChat?
The most typical situation: this is the first such solution for the client (although, of course, not always). We do not focus on how to “pick up” customers from competitors, but how to be more attractive as the “first choice” provider.
What is your take on the overall market - is the market still in early phase in terms of adoption or do you see already signs of maturity? In other words, out of potential client companies, how many is already using LiveChat or similar system?
7 years ago, during the IPO, we declared that our potential client is any company with a website. Today, LiveChat can be used with other communication channels (instant messaging, Apple Business Chat, SMS-s …), taking into account how many companies (even in the USA itself) are created each day - it seems to us that there is still a lot ahead of us.
You have grown thus far organically. Is your strategy also in the future to focus growing organically? Or do you see opportunities in acquisitions? If you would do an acquisition, would that be company that complement your solutions or similar company to LiveChat to give bigger market share?
The acquisition is not totally out of the question. But it seems that the only scenario in which it would be possible is to add a new, complementary product to our portfolio. We have no acquisition experience and are very cautious, so this is not the base scenario. It seems that we always ask ourselves: can we do it ourselves?
Dividend strategy. It is quite uncommon for growth company to give out such a big share of the profit as dividend. Is this because you cannot find yourself better investment opportunities where to use the funds or do you feel you don’t need the funds to drive growth? Your ROE is exceptionally high so it is difficult for us shareholders to find better investment to reallocate the funds that are given out as a dividend.
Today we are not thinking about changing our dividend policy. We did not hesitate to spend a lot of money, e.g. on the purchase of domains such as livechat.com or chatbot.com, we conduct paid customer acquisition campaigns (but we are not satisfied with their effectiveness yet), we do not rule out acquisitions (as I declared above), although these are not very likely - but for today we are left with this capital allocation.
Product portfolio. LiveChat is by far the biggest product and contributor at the moment. It seems that ChatBot is growing to become a second pillar. How about the two other products? Do they provide revenues and how do you see their role going forward?
We are definitely optimists about HelpDesk. We do not give up on KB, which can be a valuable supplement. We are now putting a lot of effort into integrating all products to create a complete “suite”. We believe that this will give us new value and allow us to address the needs of new customers.
Continuing in the product side. Where do you see your biggest new opportunities in terms of product innovation?
Of course, we are participating in a kind of race - we try to add new features, new integrations faster than competitors, but I think the most important thing for us was stated in our “Constitution”:
Customer service has always been our area of expertise. But now we want to go beyond interactions with customers. We want our products to be present in every aspect of the relationship between an end-user and a company: pre-sale, sales , and post-sale interactions. At the same time, we want that communication to mimic natural conversation. We will equip businesses with tools that add a layer of emotions on top of the customer journey, and an element of soul that is unique to each business.
As for the topic of innovation itself. We’ve started to have a series of open discussions about innovation at Clubhouse, so you can look for us there.
Ecosystem building. Do you plan to start expand your offering towards more a platform model where 3rd party solutions and apps could be added? And perhaps you would build a market place where you customers could find these add ons to include in their offering?
That’s exactly what we are doing here
Tax benefits. Your report indicate that you have received some tax benefits that affect positively the result. Are these purely extraordinary one off items or something more systematic and lasting?
IP Box was introduced in Poland for the first time in 2019. We have no information that the government will withdraw from it. We have used this tax relief for the first time for the financial year 2019/2020 on an annual basis. As of this quarter, we will be recognizing this tax relief on a quarterly basis.
Dual listing to NYSE / Nasdaq - any consideration to dual list to USA which is your biggest market?
Yes. It has always been our ambition, also precisely because it is our key market. Our CEO, on the other hand, spoke about it already at his debut on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. We have taken our time and focus on business.
You mention in the report that you have almost zero cost for customer acquisition which is remarkable. Does this mean that when you hire new people, the focus is more on the R&D side? Or where do you see biggest need within your organisation to hire new people?
Definitely a product, but also marketing, which in our business model is partially replaced by the sales team (which we are also developing). You can always be up to date: www.livechat.com/careers/jobs
EDIT: jatkokysymykset ja vastaukset:
-You said you are optimistic about the growth, What is the main driver for growth at coming quarters? Is it ChatBot or is it a combination of many products?
(also noticed that last quarter YoY was maybe most favourable one! so as you said comparable numbers will get tougher)
The drivers for the growth will be as follows, the continuous increase in the number of clients, however more importantly ability to attract larger clients and cross-selling of the products. ChatBot adds nicely to our revenues as this quarter it constituted 4.5% of our revenues. However, bare in mind that the comparable base in the last 12 months has increased significantly so increases like that of Q3/Q3 are something that we will not see.
- So I noticed that you have been able to add maybe 2-5 million to almost every quarter (QoQ) lately, do you see this as a trend or Slower, faster?
Again, our ability to add business quarter on the quarter will remain, but at the same time you still have to remember about our customer churn of about 3% monthly. With the revenues base being strong, we will have to work harder to keep the growth. But this is one of the reasons why we invest in the sales team.
Kerroin lisäksi, Inderes yhteisöstä, johon kommentti:
Thank you for all the information. They are very interesting! It seems that in Poland the StockWatch website has a similar community. It has very good analyzes of our financial reports.
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Kovasti on rekryjä menossa Livechatilla. Reilut 30 paikkaa auki tällä hetkellä. Muistaakseni koko henkilöstömäärä on noin 200. Kertoo kyllä että momentum taitaa olla edelleen vahva…
Pari mielenkiintoista poimintaa tehtävistä löytyy esim Knowledge Base tuotteelle oma tuotepäällikkö:
One and a half years ago we released Knowledge Base for managing internal team knowledge and building public help centers. Now it’s time to scale the app, get our 30k LiveChat customers using it, and sell it prospects we haven’t even found yet. The product is just one from our suite that includes LiveChat, ChatBot, and HelpDesk.
ja sitten ensimmäinen(!?) paikan päällä oleva account executive Yhdysvaltoihin:
We’re looking for an experienced Account Executive with a true knack for SaaS sales (based in the United States) to join our growing sales team as we move deeper into both the mid-market and enterprise markets.In this role, you will be our first Sales Rep based in the United States. You will benefit from hundreds of inbound leads…
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Lisäksi 2020 on lisätty myös reilusti, olikohan yli 20 henkeä
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Kurssi ottanut pienen n. 7% pompun tänään.
En löytänyt IR-sivuilta mitään uutista. Myöskään ylempänä linkatulta Stockwatchin forumilta en löytänyt mitään uutta. Ainoa tuoreehko päivitys oli parin päivän takaa, jossa joku analyytikko oli downgreidannut suositusta ylipainota → neutraali, ja kommentin mukaan syynä suositusmuutokseen oli alkuvuonna noussut kurssi.
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Erinomainen analyysiraportti yrityksestä vaikka onkin viime vuodelta.
Yhteenveto:
In summary, we think LiveChat Software is an excellent buy and hold investment that possesses many of the hallmarks of a great business. The company operates in an attractive industry niche, with a rare
combination of growth and profitability, as well as a track record of execution and aligned insiders. Furthermore, there are tailwinds for increased demand from investors both on a macro (Polish pension reform) and micro level (increased awareness/recent market value increases making position feasible for more funds). It’s hard to suggest a firm target price here – but we’d rather be approximately right than exactly wrong, and in our view, buying businesses generating 100%+ returns on capital at roughly market multiples makes it very likely we will be directionally correct. As such, we think the risk-reward is very attractive at current levels and have been accumulating shares in our fund.
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Juuri näin, tästä on tulossa niin halpa ja kasvua jatkossakin on niin varmasti, että riski/tuotto suhde tuntuu oikealta!
Vaikka kasvu ei tulekaan olemaan 44,5% jatkossa.
Why Does the Opportunity Exist?
We can think of several possible reasons for why this opportunity is available to investors today, compiled
in list form below:
• The most obvious is that this is a small-cap stock listed in a country that generally doesn’t receive
much investor attention. Many large funds are unable to take positions, and most smaller players
have never heard of it.
• Sell-side coverage on LVC is limited to smaller regional players (you can see the list in the graphic
above), which in turn limits the number of investors with access to their reports.
• The management team is fairly non-promotional and doesn’t give guidance like most software
companies. The company’s inbound marketing focus also means you won’t see them advertising
on a billboard to get their name out anytime soon.
• LVC is not particularly cheap on EV/S, the predominant SaaS metric. Screens run solely on that
basis would not cause the company to stand out.
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Livechatin juuri julkaistu IR kalenteri, Q4 alustavat luvut pitäisi tulla ensi viikon alussa, vähän riippuen miten Puolassa on pääsiäisenä pyhäpäiviä:
Additionally, the Company plans to publish information on preliminary estimated data on consolidated revenues in individual quarters. The Company intends to present the mentioned data no later than on the third business day after the relevant quarter ends
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Mullakin on spostissa jotain kommenttia, ipbox osalta. Viime vuosi oli Puolassa ensimmäinen ipbox vuosi.
Pitää kyllä kehua tätä livechattiä aika defensiivistä kasvuosakkeena, kun moni muu laskenut on tämä plussalla. Eikä toki ihme. Mahtava saada jossain vaiheessa tilikausi pakettiin👌!
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On siitä hyötyäkin ettei kertoimet ole viritetty todella kireiksi ja eikä ole ns hype osake. Pidän tätä kyllä erinomaisena defensiivisena osakkeena vaikka onkin edelleen vahvasti kasvuosake(kin). Tässä muuten mielenkiintoinen poiminta Twilion raportista. Livechattien ja chatbottien implementoinnit ovat yritysten to do listalla ihan kärjessä! Eli kasvulle on kyllä tilaa edelleen.
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Alustava liikevaihdon kehitys ulkona, hyvältä näyttää!
January - March 2021 (Q4 of the financial year 2020/21) amounted to 12.66 mn USD and were 39.6% higher than those achieved in Q4 of the 2019/2020 financial year.
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Mukavasti näyttävät kaikki mittarit kasvua, kuten ketjussa aimmin ennakoitu. LiveChatin puolella kasvu sekä asiakasmäärissä että myynneissä näyttää hidastuvan, mutta ChatBotin kasvu jatkaa erittäin kovassa tahdissa.
Tosin tässä on raportoitu myynnit USD-pohjalla. Viimeisen reilun kuukauden vahvistumisestaan huolimatta tammi-maaliskuussa dollari on ollut selvästi viime vuotta heikompi (n. 3,75 PLN vs. n. 3,95 PLN viime talvena). Eli ihan yhtä kovia kasvulukuja eivät tule raportoimaan zlotyina. Ehkä myynnin kasvu viimeisellä kvartaalilla tulee olemaan luokkaa +33% edellisvuoden samaan jaksoon verrattuna.
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Joo q3 oli kaikista suotuisin mahdollinen vertailu kk. Sanoisin, että 2020 tilikausi voisi olla n. 33% kasvu liikevaihtoon. Lukematta vielä tuota tiedotetta. Muokkaan tätä viestiä sitten.
En osaa ihan lonkalta verrata, mutta ihan hyvältä näyttää.
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Viittaatko Livechatin kasvun osalta arpuun? Sehän ei ole sama kuin sen tuotteen kehitys vaan kuinka paljon veloitetaan per asiakas. Vai missaanko mä nyt jotain?
Tein vähän omaa vertailua Q2 presentaatioon ja Q4 alustavaan tiedotteeseen. Arvostan muuten sitä, että sellainen saadaan ulos kvartaalin päättymistä seuraavana päivänä.
Tiedotteen mukaan LiveChatin asiakasmäärä Q4 jälkeen (32.864) oli vajaa 5% enemmän kuin Q2 jälkeen (31.306), eli asiakasmäärän kasvu näyttäisi olevan tasoittumaan päin. ARPUsta en löytänyt tarkkaa lukua Q2 presiksestä, mutta se oli noin 110-115 haarukassa 6kk sitten. Kasvua siis edelleen, mutta ei yhtä kovaa kuin ennen.
Vastaavasti ChatBotin asiakasmäärissä kasvu on kovaa, noin 22% vrt. Q2, ja ilmeisesti hinnoittelumallin muutoksen myötä myös ARPU noin 25% kasvussa.
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Tämähän on mitä mainion GARP-sijoitus. Kasvaa hyvin tyydyttävää vauhtia ja hinnoittelu on suht maltillista
Ei sovi unohtaa, että siellä on myös Helpdesk kasvamassa hyvää tahtia kolmantena pyöränä. Vielä toki hyvin pienimuotoista, mutta alku on lupaava
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Käsitykseni mukaan chatbot ja help desk menee kivasti, knowledge base ei niinkään, ainakaan vielä. Olettaisin, että chatbot ja helpdesk saadaan paljon olemassa oleville asiakkaille! Sitten oli puhetta, että koittavat yhdistää suiteksi.
Saamme varmaan kuulla yhtiöltä itseltäänkin jossain. Vaiheessa esitystä täällä indenresinkin alustalla.
- Increase in the number of Group’s customers. At the end of the 2020/21 FY there were 32,864 LiveChat paying clients and 1.874 ChatBot clients.
- ChatBot product revenues increased by almost 26.8% in comparison with the previous quarter and by more than 213% in comparison with the same period last year.
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Tällainen oli ilmestynyt LiveChatin sivuille kalenteriin, päivänä ensi viikon keskiviikko 7.4.
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