Täältä löytyy myös tuo presis
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/612181
Poimintana tämä ohjeistus. En nyt muista oliko tuota Price rangea kommunikoitu ulos aiemmin?
seuraavalla kelmulla vielä tarkennus:
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Vuositasolla tulos on todella hieno, joskin suuri osa siitä on kertynyt ilmeisesti Evolarin ja Neptunin myynnistä…? Q4/23 tulos verrattuna vastaavaan kvartaaliin Q4/22 on huonompi: EBITDA Q4/23 on -13.9 verr. Q4/22 65.5, jossa operating revenue oli peräti 79.9 MNOK verr nyt 1,9 MNOK. Mistähän nuo isot Q4/22 tulot olivat syntyneet? Öljytuloja vai mitähän lienevät? Q4/23 tulos toki on parempi verrattuna edeltävään Q3/23:een: -15.9 MNOK verr. -19 MNOK. En osaa tarkemmin näitä tulkita, olisi mukava saada mielipiteitä näistä 
Suunta on kaiken kaikkiaan hyvä, minkä osakurssikin nyt viimein on noteerannut 
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Vihdoin daily up trend change, seuraava vastus 31.55 ja sitten 34. Ylitettiin jo POC ja ehkä uutiskynnys
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The big Q4/22 revenue came from the Penguins “sail-away” milestone. They recognized the revenue when the FPSO left from China. I believe it was 7,5 mill USD
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Ehdottomasti positiivinen kvartaali taas kerran, kuten Magnoralta on syytäkin odottaa. Muutamia omaan silmään osuvia asioita:
MW-lukua ei tällä kertaa päivitetty. Luvut vieläkin samat vanhat joulukuun lopulta. Kaipasin itse alustavia tietoja, että miten Q1 on edennyt:
Tämä taitaa olla ensimmäinen kalvo, missä myönnetään suoraan että öljylegacyn erottaminen uusiutuvasta bisneksestä mahdollistaa yritysjärjestelyt. Magnoran omia sijoituksia ja M&A-hankkeitahan öljybisneksen mukanaolo ei ole haitannut, joten kyseessä on Magnora joka tässä on M&A:n kohteena. Audiocastissa myös mainittiin “M&A related activities to Magnora and Magnora companies.”
Vaikka legacy-bisnes ollaan erottamassa uusiutuvista, niin Magnora mainitsee vuosiraportissa yrittävänsä myydä Western Islesin lisenssimaksut eteenpäin. Olen vieläkin hieman ihmeissäni tästä kiireestä listata legacyöljytfirmat pörssiin Q2 aikana. Sen jälkeen kun Western Isles on myyty ja saadaan noi loput Penguins rahat, niin legacyä ei enää ole. Ellei siellä nyt sitten kirjaimellisesti ole Hafslundin ostotarjousta odottamassa splittiä, niin luulisi että nuo saataisiin lähikuukausina myytä ja legacy ajettua alas orgaanisesti 
Yhtiö kertoi nyt myös ensimmäistä kertaa ohjeistuksen sille, että kuinka suuri osa maapankista on “myyntikunnossa”:
On kommunikoitu ulos ja tuota ei ole muutettu, mikä on hyvä asia sillä yleisessä keskustelussa on puhuttu, että uusiutuvat eivät enää olisi kannattava sijoituskohde nousseiden korkojen ja kustannusten vuoksi.
Magnoraa on hieman haastavaa tulkita perinteisillä luvuilla koska vain osa firmojen finanssitiedoista konsolidoidaan, mutta sitä arvokkainta osaa yrityksestä kohdellaan sijoituksena, jolloin kohdeyhtiön tulos ja maksetut osingot ratkaisevat. Tämä tehokkaasti piilottaa mm. Helioksen todellisen arvon niin kauan kun yhtiö on hurjassa kasvumoodissa:
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Kysyin tästä firman toimitusjohtajalta. Vapaasti muotoillen vastaus oli tyyliin, että “Ei me haluta kokonaan luopua öljypuolesta, koska meillä on timanttinen hallitus, joka osaa kasvattaa öljybisneksien osalta näistä lähtökohdista jotain hienoa. Tykätään pääomakevyistä bisneksistä.”
Onhan nää kyllä kovia tyyppejä ja kaikilla linkki Panoro Energyyn, joka omaa erittäin kevyen organisaation öljy-yhtiöksi, kun ostelevat pitkälti vähemmistöosuuksia öljyprojekteista:
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Voisikohan joku norjaa paremmin ymmärtävä käydä kuuntelemassa tämän ja tehdä pienen referaatin foorumille? Löytyy myös Spotifysta. Tuntuvat toisella foorumilla olevan aika innoissaan sisällöstä.
Also, @Hammerix, we welcome an agent from FA forum! We appreciate having someone with home ground advantage. And… related to that, I assume you have already listened to the above podcast? Would I be asking too much if I were to request a short summary of the main points? Just a request so no pressure. You wouldn’t even have to write in Finnish, English would suffice just fine 
Edit: Podcastissa kyse siis Erik Sneven haastattelusta.
FA:n foorumilta poimittuja pointteja haastiksesta, joille haluaisin vahvistuksen:
- Working with entry into 3-4 new markets!
- South Africa will be the new Helios.
- The sales in SA this autumn had a price of well over 100 million.
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Well, the interview is 43 minutes, so I can not give you all the details. But I can highlight the main points:
South Africa:
-
They believe that South Africa will be the new Helios, and that all key circumstances are in place for this to happen.
-
They have an enourmous amount of land in SA. Size is compareable to building 40gw of solar pv, but grid connection is a restraint. So they include just a fraction of this when speaking about their portefolio.
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They believe they will have 1 GW of the portefolio in SA marketable for sale in 2024, but timing is important.
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They have sold projects for above 100 mill NOK in SA. Significant payment upfront, and then milestones through 2024 and 2025. 157 mill according to Pareto.
Other markets:
-
They have a team of 4 employees working on new markets on a daily basis.
-
They have identified 3-4 new markets - New geographies.
Offshore wind:
- Not looking actively for new projects, but focusing on the ones they already have. Growth will happen within, Solar pv, battery and onshore wind (SA)
Legacy:
-
Spin off for several reasons.1. Utility index, 2. Mutual funds, 3. Largest investors wants to get rid of oil. 4. Enough money from renewables.
-
The new company will be similar to what Magnora was 4 years ago, but much better positioned. Better outlook on revenue streams from WI + Very good team.
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Magnoras ownership has to be below 50%, but the board has not made a final decision. They need to get below 5% top-line revenue.
-
Value will most likely be highest when WI resumes production in 2026
-
If approved by AGM i April, Magnora shareholders will recieve this “monster-dividend” in June
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Allekirjoittaneelta oli mennyt pieni präntti ohitse vuosikertomuksesta. Ilmeisesti Evolarin ensimmäinen milestone-maksu pitäisi saada ennen 12 toukokuuta, joten tässä on syytä odottaa lähiviikkoina tiedotetta että ensimmäinen milestone on saavutettu. Vaihtoehtoisesti jos tuohon mennessä ei mitään kuulu, niin saattaisi käydä harmillisesti niin että tuo Evolarin myynnin reilu parikymmentä miljoonaa dollaria jää saamatta.
Jotain ennätystuloksia tuo Evolar (Nykyään First Solar European Technology Center AB) on saavuttanut viime viikolla, joten toivottavasti tuosta se maksu pian irtoaa 
24 tykkäystä
Aurinkopaneeleissa on valtava ylikapasiteetti tällä hetkellä ja lähivuosina. Tämä on erinomainen tilanne kehittäjille, koska matalat paneelien hinnat lisäävät kysyntää projekteista ja helpottavat investointipäätöstä aurinkoenergiaa operoivien yritysten osalta:
Näillä paneelien hinnoilla ja korkotasoilla ei oikeasti ole sähköntuottajille juurikaan järkeä rakentaa mitään muuta kuin lisää aurinkoenergiaa 
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Nyt tuli yhtiökokous kutsuki. 70% Magnoran PT2 osakkeista siirtyis Hermanni Holderille ja osakkeenomistajat saa yhen Hermannin per nykyne osake. Jakautumisen vaikutus Magnoran kurssiin 0,1 NOK osaketta kohden.
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Kokeillaan. Saa haastaa. Koitan olla konservatiivinen.
Käytetään lähteinä Helioksen rapsaa, tätä @Kultapossu1 :n johtopäätöstä
tätä @Hammerix :n ansiokkaasti jakamaa taulukkoa. (Sorry Hammerix, I´m too lazy to write in English, I hope that Chrome or some other browser translates this well)
sekä yhtiön vuosirapsoja.
Tuossa Pareton kuvassa minua ihmetyttää Etelä-Afrikan hinnat per MW. Itse laskin, että ne olisi tällaiset eli matalemmat.
| Initial | Milestone | SUM | I/M | MW | MNOK/MW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA SPV Q3 | 8.9 | 51 | 59.9 | 17% | 153 | 0.39 |
| SA SPV Q4 | 6.2 | 34 | 40.2 | 18% | 125 | 0.32 |
Ehkä niissä kuitenkin on vähän nousuvaraa. Pareton kuvassa on myös käytetty Helioksen hintoina 1MNOK/MW. Kuten Helioksen rapsasta pystyi lukemaan, vaikuttaisi että viivan alle on jäänyt n. 0,68NOK/MW. Jotain mainintaa on ollut, että hinnat olisivat nousseet ja ehkä Helioksella kulut eivät ole nousseet samassa suhteessa liikevaihdon kanssa. Ehkä voisi siis käyttää keskiarvona 0,7MNOK/MW kaikista tulevista myydyistä projekteista.
Tuosta Etelä-Afrikan taulukosta on minusta syytä huomata, että alun kertamaksu on noin 17% ja loput valuu 12-24kk:n aikana milestoneina. Käytän noita arvoja ja varovaisuusperiaatteen mukaan 24:kk:ta ja oletan, että ne maksetaan tasaisesti puolet ja puolet. Vähän olen ollut siinä käsityksessä, että Ruotsissa maksetaan heti alussa enemmän kuin 17%, mutta mennään sillä.
Pyöristelen aina vähän alaspäin.
TIENATUT RAHAT VUONNA 2024
Leikitään, että Heliokselta on vielä maksamatta osinkoina vuodelta 2023 noi 4/2023 ja sen jälkeen tehdyistä kaupoista saatu kassavirta. Se tekee 0,7MNOK hinnalla noin 80 MNOK.
Taulukosta voisi laskea Helioksen vuoden 2024 kassavirroiksi 0,7MNOK hinnalla 320 MNOKia. Helioksen tilikausi loppuu huhtikuussa, joten siitä kolmannes ehtii osingon maksuun 2024 eli 100 MNOK.
Etelä-Afrikan jo tehdyistä kaupoista tulisi milestoneina noilla hinnoilla 40 MNOK
Nyt meillä olisi kasassa jo tehdyistä kaupoista vuodelle 2024 220 MNOK.
Magnoran operatiiviset kulut oli 2021 75 MNOK, 2022 85 MNOK ja 2023 97 MNOK. Eli ne kasvaa n. 15% p.a, joten olkoon vuoden 2024 Opex 111 MNOK.
Jo tehdyista kaupoista voisi jäädä siis liikevoitoksi 80 + 100 + 40 - 111 = 109 MNOK
SPEKULAATIOTA
Sitten on jotain liikevaihtoa, jonka ymmärrän jonkinaliseksi konsultaatioksi noissa projekteissa. Siitä kirjoitettiin vuosirapsassa näin:
Mennään samalla ja otetaan luvuksi 10 MNOK. Se minusta voisi olla lisääntyneiden hankkeiden myötä suurempikin, mutta mennään silti sillä.
Kaikista spekulatiivisin osa on sitten uudet kaupat.
Vuoden 2023 alussa projektiporftolion koko oli 3646 MW ja siitä myytiin vuoden aikana 587 MW eli 16%.
Vuoden 2024 alussa myymätöntä portfoliota on 7179-587 = 6592 MW. Yhtiö meinasi, että tänä vuonna keskityttäisiin enemmän myyntiin kuin portfolion kasvattamiseen, mutta mennään konservatiisesti silti tuolla samalla 16%:lla, joten silloin saataisiin myytyä 1054 MW:ia. Siitä sitten se aikaisemmin mainittu 17% saataisiin laskutettua heti, eli 179 MW edestä. Sen hinnaksi 0,7 MNOK:lla tulisi noin 120 NOK. Sovitaan, että tästä puolet tulee Etelä-Afrikasta ja puolet Heliokselta, joista 1/3 ehtisi tän vuoden osinkoon. Eli silloin meillä olisi 60 + 20 = 80 MNOK.
Nyt olisi siis kasassa 109 + 10 + 80 = 199 MNOK.
Yritysarvo on tällä herkellä 1679 NOK, joten EV/EBIT olisi 8.4. Verojahan Magnoran ei tarvitse tiettävästi hirveästi maksella.
Tähän päälle vielä legacyt, jos sieltä ehtii jotain tulla sekä mahdollinen milestonemaksu Evolarista, mitä se sitten onkaan, maksimissaan 250MNOK.
Menikö oikein? Ainakaan en omasta mielestäni liiotellut. Ehkä ton 0.7MNOK/MW hinnan kanssa. Laitetaan tämä talteen ja palataan vuoden päästä asiaan.
Edit. Milestonien ja kauppojen ajoitus voi heittää kovastikin eikä me tiedetä kuinka paljon Helios aikoo jakaa osinkoja.
29 tykkäystä
Löytyi vihdoin aikaa virittää omat tekoälyviritelmät kääntämään norjalaista ääntä englanniksi ja ensimmäinen kohde oli tämä muutaman kuukauden takainen Pareton podcasti:
Ohessa 30 minuutin edestä keskustelua tekoälyllä käännettynä. Tekoälyllä oli välillä pieniä haasteita erottaa keskustelijoita toisistansa, mutta lopputulos on mielestäni vähintäänkin tyydyttävä. Ei sijoitussuositus. Sisältää virheitä. Tee omat norjan opintosi ennen sijoitusta.
Käännös
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
The content in this the podcast shall not considered as investment advice .
Find link to full disclaimer and more information at the bottom at paretosekk.no.
Hello and cordially welcome to a new one episode of ParetoPoden .
Today we are live from Pareto annual Power and Renewables conference in Oslo.
And we have been so lucky to get visit of the CEO i Magnora , Erik Sneve.
welcome here , Eric.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Thousand thanks for that , Sebastian and Kari.
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
We have also renewable energy analyst and analyst on Magnora , Kari Geide Hartvedt .
Welcome , Kari.
I thought we should start with the green one the changeover and where Magnora started back in October 2018.
And now did you send one press release the clock twelve on that you really rocks the umbilical cord to the legacy business .
But you were early out with the green one the conversion .
It is also one of very few companies as hair one market cap in day which is higher than peak 21.
What I thought we could talk about, was really what as happened in October 2018.
Why you made that choice then.
And so has it happened quite a few things in the meantime .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Like you maybe don’t remember, but so We then received a good offer Magnoras technology .
And there worked part of the current ones the investors with getting a better offer and press earlier owners and controls to work for a better bid and become involved there.
And the buyer Didn’t buy then these two royalty contracts .
Then you actually stood through a company with one employee , who was the former CEO, and two royalty contracts , and tried to find out what you could do with these the income into the future .
And Magnora hair as known a large performable deficit of NOK 3.5 billion and NOK 8.4 billion in …
We were involved in a number of processes , Torstein Sandnes and me too so if we could purchase up some a little bigger , more established businesses .
Then worked closely with Kistefoss and was inside in some good leads .
But Norway is a country with a lot money , and it was difficult to come across things that we thought were very cheap to immigrate .
And beyond in the spring of 2019, Kristen Sveås was then interested in green Energy .
Also Gunerius Pettersen with his family their .
They own around 10%.
Was interested in green Energy .
I had coincidentally worked for Statkraft for four years .
Statkraft and Hafslund , who had manage on renewable investments .
And we used time to find out if this was something we should do .
We then simultaneously had a lot of others processes .
And after each we found out that maybe we should do this organically .
Because then we avoid spending a lot of money .
And start with the 50 million the kroner we had again then.
We had then paid 517 million.
in dividend already .
And with that money We decided to start project development within the renewables market .
With special focus on wind , and so was after every sun.
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
In relation to that journey you hair hat , then there is an asset light project portfolio with being involved from the start.
And then it’s a lot difficult , Kari, oh no draw forward Helios , who has been one fantastic journey for you , Erik.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Helios has been a stroke of luck .
They were one of the first the actors to bet industrially in the sun in the Nordics.
While many of the established the actors had large portfolios on Vind.
And Vind has met on very big resistance in Norway.
But meetings also on resistance in the others Nordic the countries outside of Finland.
So it has been a very good lucky tree for us .
Now We have solar projects in South Africa, in England, and also in Norway and in Finland.
So we use that model and the competence from there in several others markets .
But we also like land wind , and we do that in South Africa.
Landwind is one very efficient , good technology , which is the cheapest and best in the class , but unfortunately not as popular in Europe.
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
And I do notice to now in day , which you came up with Q4 figures for the portfolio their , and you have the last ones eleven the quarters increased net megawatt to Magnora with approx.
20% quarter over quarter .
And it was n’t far away this the hallway too , and we see that a lot is coming from Helios as well this the hallway .
You are 'branching out ’ after all geographically , both to Finland, to The Baltics … And Norway.
And also Norway, with Hafslund Magnora Sol.
And as you were inside on , Sol has been an adventure in Sweden with Helios.
Sol in Norway has some others challenges than Sol in Sweden.
So a little round the thoughts for the investment opportunities in Norsk Sol.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
In Norway, we have thought that we will come to grow slower than in Sweden.
But the first thing the year have we grown faster than we did in Sweden.
So Norway is recovering quite well.
But Norway has some bottlenecks tied to NVE.
And so it is tougher ground conditions with spruce forest and stone for all who hair driven by orientation or becomes forced to pick berries .
Then you know it’s very hilly in Norwegian outfield .
In Sweden, there is a lot flatter landscape and more sandy soil .
Which does it a lot cheaper to build per megawatt hour .
Sweden has a history hat better prices on current than in Norway.
But now hair I turned around on the head with these the export cables , which means that Norway has received very attractive prices .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
And it will continue to be so .
Now to which you are first connected the continent , so you can on one manner not arrange it.
And especially then on wind in Norway.
Landwind , as it was previously set a stop to, but for which it is now open .
Of course with municipalities possibility to add down veto.
Then you see that it is perhaps the energy source as has the lowest levelized cost of energy possible invest in now .
And so hair you yes, Hafslund Magnora Sol.
Will there be anything Magnora Norway Wind?
[ERIK SNEVE]:
It could well is thought .
There are many actors as hair driven on with wind in Norway.
Which has portfolios which they have used some time and money on already .
I think maybe there the development comes , is where the municipalities , the poorest the municipalities in Norway with good wind conditions ,
With relatively small , few residents .
Maybe they are the ones want be positive about wind .
And you see quite a bit … See a kind of bonanza in it Finnmark now .
But it is not so easy there, because I lack internet .
So it will be a very political game.
We have a very focus that it should could be lots of project possibilities in the markets we are in . That we can scale up at a tremendous pace.
And we cannot see that we will get that to in Norway on card and medium length sight .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
You guys were quite early out , and so has it been one enormous roller coaster with a extremely high and so one extremely low for many companies .
How about you who laid a strategy in 2019, how has been managing it throughout the three or four years we have been through now ?
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Yes, it has been a little demanding to times .
But it is the case that any company on term becomes appreciated to what kind of balance you have .
What kind of earnings you have .
And we have had one organic earnings .
So we have too ready to show that we can make exit.
And the downturn we had in 2021 on stock exchange for renewable shares and for tech stocks in general , was perhaps healthy for us , because it made us go into exit mode a bit earlier than we had planned .
And it is very good for the culture that we always hair focus on what the customers wishes .
Had we held on longer in development only mode , we could develop projects as not the market was interested in . Now we have sold one row customers , and we have better feel on what the customers want to have.
So I think it has arrived some good things out of that decline too .
And it is n’t like that in others industries that all companies are prisa like .
They are the ones who servant more money than preceding years , and with good ones growth prospects .
And with profitable growth , and we try to focus on that on .
Try to have one narrow organization and focus on lowest possible costs .
And focus on one diversified portfolio where we can sell projects each month or each quarter , so that we have one good news feed to the market .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
It has been interesting to see one capital approach in that year where the interest rates rose and rose .
It has paid off in the share price .
When we now look at the 54 companies in Oslo which is listed within either renewable or cleantech, and takes a weighted average it, then it’s down almost 30% in during 2023.
Magnora and up over 50%.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Oh, I was not aware , but nice to hear .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
You spoke a little about the different ones the geographies in place .
South Africa, when you are watching possibilities now , what do you see not only within the geographical ones the areas , but also within the various the segments and possibly new segments ?
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Yes, i South Africa and others places we try to see if it is possible to replicate the projects ours in many projects .
Preferably a dozen , two dozen .
A little surprising for everyone in Magnora that ours first sale in South Africa became battery .
Because we had not focus on battery before at all this .
For this the tender from South African governmental the power company Escom announced a battery project in March 2023.
So it just goes to show that you have to to have area.
Without the area we did n’t have hat something to sell .
But there we have taken many measures to survey environments and then got the necessary ones the permits on place .
It is important to be diversified , have large land areas in different regions .
And then you have to be industrial .
Invest in many projects , many areas .
To be able to have something to sell .
If we only bet on one and two projects in every country, we had the most likely not hat something to sell .
So the technologies we see coming are solar and battery .
Battery costs goes very down , and it is a very good supplement in all markets where there is coal , nuclear power , hydropower , wind power .
Wind power blows a lot individual places , but it’s windy not as much everywhere .
In South Africa there are 2300 hours of sunshine the year towards 1100 hours…
… southern parts of the Nordic region.
Such that … Very naturally one earns more money in markets with more sun.
But because
that electricity prices are so high in Europe now , so you can earn sun here too .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
And battery together with the sun it will be great important forwards .
You see that where there is sun, it shines to a greater extent at the same time everywhere , than where there is wind for wind is more locally .
So price cannibalization on wind , often type like 7%.
Price cannibalization on sun, type 40.
So having a battery as can balance out there, it will be very important the more and more sun like is coming .
And the IEA was just that out with a new report.
So that renewable Energy increased .
Just the actual additions with renewable Energy increased 50% from 2022 to 2023.
Three quarters of it was sun.
It’s coming more and more sun on , then you need more and more battery .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Definitely .
And you are like that lucky that cost on battery drops quite dramatically also , like that as on Sun.
So that makes you dependent on less and less price differences to be able to serve money on arbitration .
But then There are many other types of online services as the online companies need to be able to offer stable services to their customers .
And then you get one more diversified palette of products , which you do as you can serve money on batteries too .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
Both on a standalone basis and also in tandem with Sole.
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
In relation to those geographies you keep going , there are many authorities you must relationship you to .
What is that dynamic like ? internally ?
[ERIK SNEVE]:
You must have people as hair worked in municipal administration or county council administration .
Or in Hafslund , Magnor and Sol you have people as hair previously worked at NVE .
And that to understand how municipal and public processes takes place , is important to be able to have the right patience .
It goes often a little slower than it does in private companies .
And online companies hair monopolies .
And monopolies usually do n’t have the best ones the customer service departments .
The only the exception is then the Norwegian one the wine monopoly .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
If we go a little further on offshore wind and UK … What … We are going talk a bit about the strategy going forward .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
We had a bit of luck .
We have skilled people, and we trained us on the Norwegian one the round .
And searched on Scots wine , and was a little surprised self also when we won and many others knew Norwegian actors not got something .
The strategy ours is completely there similar to what it is within sun and wind on land i South Africa.
It is to sell us down before it has to is built out.
And we have always ongoing farm down processes , sales processes , in all the companies our .
It often takes many months and year before it comes in Harbor .
And that’s something we have held on with the last couple of years .
And we reckon we’re fine in route there to be able few on place something which is attractive to Magnoras shareholders , and also for Scott’s finances .
And it is a very well project with very good wind conditions .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
And it was, too one nice surprise that after you guys became assigned , too became announced that it was one of the first areas as should have get grid connection.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Yes , and the is always a risk .
Grid itself for offshore wind projects which are licenses from the authorities .
That’s how it looks to that this the project is one of those projects as sheep allocation of network connection first , i opposite to what many established actors thought it was coming .
And there is an area where one has applied to get this connection for an onshore wind project for many years , completely from 2006-2007.
So it is welcome subsidy here, and we take full advantage of that this potential farm down process .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
And especially towards 2024, we think that offshore wind is set for a rebound.
It has been hard with both increasing inflation , rising interest rates.
Inflation is a bit in the rearview mirror .
Long-term interest rates on road down .
And then you also see that the authorities and their support schemes also take it into account that it has been harder , and sets up also the CFD prices , exemplified in the UK, with an increase from education round five to six .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
I think the problems i Offshore Vind has been … They … It is due in to a large extent as well this with the fact that the developers , the bigger ones without going into name , no hair secured components in time.
And then there are the prices the step .
And so they already have bid on a fixed price to the authorities .
And so they don’t get the calculation to go up .
And the cost increases is due more things.
It was due component shortage , and it was due inflation on iron ore steel .
And not least that Simen Sovest hair caused major warranty problems on both land wind and offshore turbines tied to historical products .
So all this hair arrived on once , and therefore has the major players said that if we are going to buy turbines to this the price here, so goes not the calculation in a huddle.
Therefore have they asked for new CFDs.
And it has not all the authorities been interested in giving .
But if you look at the UK, it 's a market where they understand this is very market oriented .
That’s the most advanced the market for offshore wine in the world .
And now have they arrived out with a CFT, a like that fixed price for electricity on liquid wind .
A ceiling , then, mind you , of NOK 3 and 25 øre per kWh .
In Norway then has the Norwegian state been so amiable and offers 66 øre per kWh on southern North Sea 2.
So we are talking about five times the price in the UK.
And maybe it is one of the most important things for us project , that you can few network connection , but not at least then one very good CFD price.
A developer .
We are concerned that it should be profitable and liquid wind .
It has been built one plenty of liquid wind turbines around in the world , but it is a stretch forth to the cost is down of 66 øre the kilowatt hour .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
How is that dynamic ?
It has been a lot talk about lately the east coast of the USA i.a.
But these were one thing the tender rounds , but one another thing is the ability to implement to those who actual got assigned the projects .
There too have there been any question marks , because it was …
There were quite a few different ones companies as they won the bidding rounds .
Is that a bigger understanding on across different countries of how this should look like in the future now ?
Or we still are in one learning phase ?
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Not a learning phase , but … In the UK you have built up one big supplier industry attached to rock solid sea breeze .
And you have production of monopiles in close by .
Which means that you have low transport costs .
And they are performed on the place .
Scottish authorities has a high focus on facilitating investment support for players as builds up local supply chain.
Vestas was probably out for a couple of days since and said they are considering building one factory in Scotland also .
So that’s a lot okay in most industries to have a short journey products .
Because it is cheaper to drive up the products .
On the east coast of the United States has I not followed carefully enough with.
I mean Equinor and several others secure yard and areas where they were going driven own production .
Set up own assembly plant .
But I know not well enough to the details round this .
But the majority of offshore wind hair been built in southern part of the North Sea .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
We think it is important to draw forth in east coast on the USA.
When it has arrived news that projects are being stopped , this is not necessarily the case so that those projects not is carried out .
Because the way it is now , so have they asked Niserda in New York if they can few higher price, and so they say …
If you bid on new in one competitive round .
So to keep competitive considerations right , so the project must then be tendered on new , but the cancellation fee as they must pay , is completely marginal.
So it’s almost … So it’s under one per thousand of the project’s value .
So there it has been a little negative focus from the media, we think , in relation to what maybe actually is underlying development on the offshore expanse also in the United States.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Sun and battery can add very a lot more Energy and maybe a lot more Energy than that politicians and many have estimated earlier .
But in most markets so do you need more different technologies to add enough energy , if you must walk away from fossil …
And so visible I I see one pretty good news feed tied to CO2 capture technology.
And I believe not one comes without having to offer these the actors as hair natural gas , possibly coal also , CO2 purification plant, to be able now these hairy goals to …
And so it may happen over time that one realizes that it is impossible Nevertheless .
But in all markets so do you require one mix of hydropower , wind power , solar power , offshore wind to be able to offer enough electricity , green electricity .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
Carbon capture I think we see it that way too exciting out.
If we continue at that rate of emissions which we have now , the 1.5 degree target is a thing of the past by 2030.
Mon need all the tools you have in checkout , too carbon capture .
By the entrance until 2023 as was announced project capacity as shall materialize in 2030 , only 240 million ton caught annually .
Now has it risen to 420.
It has almost doubled .
On the Oslo Stock Exchange in Q4 then we got weekly messages from those carbon capture players which is listed , that it has new agreements , new projects arrived .
We see great activity there .
So it will be exciting with carbon capture also towards 2024.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Very .
But it doesn’t work Magnora with, that is .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
When you look at what you do, and in the different ones the regions … What is the largest the bottleneck ?
And it varies maybe from …
From country to country too .
And how roads you it up against each other internally ?
[ERIK SNEVE]:
The biggest the bottleneck is time .
It demands often seasons to count migratory birds Activity .
Migratory birds only migrate twice the year .
So it’s often … It’s not one bottleneck , but there is one factor as makes things take time .
Then it’s local authorities ability to treat applications quickly enough .
And then there are online companies ability to be able to prioritize them the most ripe the projects .
And in some markets has it been so that those who are first in the queue , secures one castle .
And in the UK they have moved away from that now recently .
Because there you have had lots of projects in queue in front of others projects .
But like hair Turns out they don’t have a project , because they have not been through all of these the environmental surveys as must be on space to get approved a project .
And it is then that you must have approvals from third parties .
And in some markets so maybe it is became demanding to get roof in third party actors as can do one independent assessment of certain types of technologies and solutions .
So net , public civil servants as can treat applications , and possibly also third party consultants after every .
But the web is probably the biggest the bottleneck .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
The same the development has also been seen in Norway, with Statnett, which also had one like that priority list on those who come first .
It led to allocations as not was actually bound in what as actually was commercial possible , what as had financial backing.
So they have drawn back part of those online concessions which they have granted upstairs in north , and granted out they on new .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Yes, because there is one affiliation obligation in Norway.
But now it’s in a big way , Norwegian company as sheep our first in the queue .
Possibly regardless .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
You were a bit … You were a bit I 'm shy took up Helios.
But if we look at the numbers , 23 million
NOK invested , and we talk possibly over 400 million .
NOK out.
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
Yes, and projects sold for many hundreds millions .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Almost a billion , yes.
So the hair been very exciting to pinch in his arm to think on where lucky we have been as hair been early out and ready to build up one like that unique platform in the Nordics.
That we have been early out , makes many landowners applicant to Helios too .
Because they know they have execution ability .
Number one .
And customers know that Helios delivers quality .
[KARI EIDE HARTVEDT]:
And then you know that the organisation until Helios delivers these the numbers .
So the margins in that business too pretty phenomenal .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
involved in development knows that .
But making it happen systematic , industrial , there is more demanding .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
One thing is to be early out , but we could do that a lot error in 21 too .
So you should clap you self a little on the shoulder .
[ERIK SNEVE]:
I think we are research-oriented .
We try to keep up.
And we also had a focus on land wind in Norway and Sweden like that in early phase .
And we realized in 2021, quite early , that it would become hero impossible .
And then we withdrew out.
And we saved a lot money on .
But the money is really the least the problem .
What we saved on , was the focus from the management and key employees .
That one does not User time on something we don’t can few developed or sold .
So the our it most important the recognition .
On the the time cost Sol a lot more than the do now .
So the was a tough one call , and I worked in Renewables Energy and Solar power for Statkraft and Hafslund and Eidsiv Energy previously , and I thought the had to be very embarrassing if I of all people should do error on Sun.
But we were right in ours assessments of Kapex , that it would fall and fall further .
But we had also imagine that the prices on current in the Nordic countries should ladder something .
We had not in our wildest imagination thought it could double.
Like that as it is done .
And that makes you have one fairly robust unit economy .
With the amount of sun you have now .
When you arrive up of 40%, which is many years to , so will it be one other case .
But at the levels you are at now , it is very nice .
And so have we hedged us in that we too hair battery options on most the projects our .
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
Very good.
I think we’ll leave it at that pot’s last word.
If you want learn more about Maynora , click here Maynora’s websites .
There find you the presentation from in day and can be worth reading through of today press release too .
All Paretos analyses you will find of course at online.paretosek.com.
Erik, it has been one fantastic journey you have been through to now .
You have been clever , and it will be exciting to follow you going forward .
Thank you for coming in the studio.
[ERIK SNEVE]:
Thanks for that, Sebastian and Karin.
[SEBASTIAN BAARTBEDT]:
We remind you that this the podcast not contains investment - or counseling .
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… or others costs as had to accrue when using information discussed in this the podcast .
Find link to full disclaimer and more information at the bottom at paretosekk.no.
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