Liikevaihto 48,4 vs 47,1e (49,0e konsensus)
ja oikaistu liikevoitto 6,9 vs 6,6e (6,7e konsensus).
Vähintään torjuntavoitto ja melkeinpä positiivisemmalle puolelle 
Ohjeistuskin jotakuinkin odotuksiin, vaikka lv-ennuste vain sanallinen. Liikevoitto% ennusteeseen ehkä kevyttä laskupainetta, mikäli analyytikko muuttaa ennustettaan lähemmäksi haarukan keskikohtaa.
Olen erittäin tyytyväinen, sillä pelkäsin paljon pahempaa. Nythän jopa ylitettiin ennusteet ja kasvettiin kansainvälisestikkin. Osinko jäi vähän pieneksi, mutta en pane pahakseni jos tässä ympäristössä pidetään vähän enemmän rahaa kassassa.
Rauli kerkesikin jo summata tuloksen:
Inventories are unfortunately up 24% - 33784 vs 25983. What I wonder about is that we have 1 store more from last year but 459 personnel vs 409 last year. Does that 1 store more require so much more staff? I wonder if there are any plans for personnel reduction and more efficiency since we have pressure on margins.
Sijoittaja.fi on tehnyt tiiviin analyysin Marimekosta, jutussa on kommentoitu luonnollisesti Q4-tulosta. 
Marimekon kaksi ensimmäistä kvartaalia vuoden 2022 aikana olivat vielä erittäin vahvalla tasolla, mutta loppuvuodesta toimintaympäristön epävarmuustekijät ovat osittain osuneet myös Marimekon liiketoimintaan. Varsinkin kotimaan tukkumyynti on laskenut heikentyneen yleisen kulutuskysynnän vuoksi. Kansainvälinen myynti on kuitenkin pysynyt vahvassa kasvussa, ja se kattoi yhtiön kokonaisliikevaihdosta noin 41 % vuonna 2022.
“weakened general consumer demand” - this is what a bad management will tell. Strong management teams told a completely different story for Q4 '22. Companies like Nike, LVMUY, Crocs saw strength and not any such weakness whatsoever. Tell the FED or the ECB that there is market weakness. They keep on raising rates because they also don’t see enough weakness in the economy whatsoever.
The management moved production abroad to supposedly improve costs, but costs increased, margins shrank, a ton of stuff that was produced abroad and of course it cannot be sold now despite the heavy discounts. It is exactly what I have been writing for months now. Nobody in Finland will buy your Thailand-made mugs for 30 euros. You want to sell it for 30? Produce it domestically. The napkins cost 2.99 and are made in Germany while the same shelf you have napkins from Finlayson, made in Finland, for 2.89. Why would people buy the foreign made product when it’s more expensive and it’s not even made domestically? The management needs re-calibration or complete overhaul. Now Q1 is going to be again weaker and 8, 7 or even 6 euros stock price we go.
Why would messages criticizing the management get hidden in this forum? Should we congratulate the board today? Should we also close the market that is selling off the stock? The management failed in everything. Margins are shrinking, costs are increasing, inventory is left unsold (25%+) and they say their only “hope” is for general economic conditions to improve. Hope is not what people invest in
With 10% inflation and historically weak euro in q4 against USD there was barely 1% growth from the previous year in sales. The company missed expectations both top and bottom line, margins shrank, costs sky-rocketed, employees up 10% while there is only +1 store from last year, inventories went up +25%, but the management is “excited and thrilled…”
I think they are excited about the growth of international sales. Growth in Finland is limited and gaining market share abroad is the way forward.
Well, in 2021 all of Asia, Europe and the US were in lockdowns. Of course 2022 international sales were higher as the world started opening again and stores re-opened. But this is not something to celebrate. 2022 was a worst year than 2021 because costs increased more than sales 1% and thus margins shrank and thus the company made much less net-profit. They didn’t manage to keep up with inflation. This was really bad
@Rauli_Juva haastatteli Tiinaa.
Aiheet:
00:00 Aloitus
00:15 Q4-pääkohdat
01:00 Suomen vähittäismyynti
02:02 Vuosi 2022
03:31 Osinko
04:21 Näkymät
05:30 Ohjeistus
06:50 Strategia
Yet somehow 2021 with all the lockdowns was the best year ever for Marimekko. In CEO comments in 2021 financical statements it was said “Our long-term work to develop the Marimekko brand and our business as a whole as well as our success during the pandemic speak to the effectiveness of our international growth strategy.” Given the numbers from 2022, that might have been partly over-estimation of the success of the (now previous) strategy, and perhaps the success in 2021 was also in significant part due to a) the 70 years celebration campaign with pop-up stores around the world and exclusive special collections that sold out, and/or b) maybe Marimekko just was one of the winners in the pandemic.
I’m not saying that you are all wrong in the criticism, I’m just saying that when comparing to an exceptionally good year, you might allow some room for things that have not developed as spectacularly this year. The margins are still up compared to pre-pandemic levels. To me it’s not that bad. It would’ve been nice if we were at the same levels of margins as last year, but unless the costs just keep creeping up without being compensated by the sales, I’m ok with it. Given the new strategy with more focus on global growth it might be that the margins are not even going to recover soon.
Evli
Marimekko delivered solid Q4 figures despite a challenging domestic market. Q1’23 seems to continue soft in Finland, but on a group level, the company expects to see growth in 2023. We retain our HOLD rating and TP of EUR 10.0.
https://www.inderes.fi/fi/kasvu-jatkuu-vaikeammassakin-markkinassa
Marimekon Q4-tulos ja ohjeistus vuodelle 2023 olivat hyvin linjassa odotustemme kanssa. Yhtiö on pystynyt jatkamaan liikevaihdon kasvua ja pitämään marginaalin hyvänä myös vaikeammassa kuluttajamarkkinassa. Emme ole tehneet merkittäviä ennustemuutoksia.
Pätkä OP:n aamukatsauksesta:
Säilytämme Marimekon LISÄÄ-suosituksessa ja tarkistamme tavoitehinnan 10,00 euroon (aik. 9,50). Suomen tukkumyynnin heikentyminen Q4:llä vaisun kuluttajasentimentin takia lisää hieman epävarmuutta alkuvuoteen 2023, mutta samalla vertailukaudesta merkittävästi kasvavat kampanjatoimitukset tukevat kotimaan tukkumyynnin näkymiä H2:lla. Suomen vähittäismyynnin vahvana jatkunut kasvu sen sijaan viestii mielestämme brändin vetovoiman olevan tallella. Kansainvälisen myynnin arvioimme kasvavan vuonna 2023. Suomen lähiajan näkymiin liittyvän epävarmuuden lievästä lisääntymisestä huolimatta osakkeen riski/tuotto -suhde on mielestämme houkutteleva. Nykyarvostus antaa mielestämme ilmaisen option sille, että tuloskasvu jatkuu hyvänä kansainvälisen kasvustrategian onnistuneen toteutuksen avulla hieman pidemmällä horisontilla.
I could understand that only if other fashion brands had reported equal weakness, but this was only a Marimekko thing. As I wrote before from Nike, to Ralph Lauren and LVMUY to Crocs, q4 of 2022 was the most impressive quarter they ever had and much much better than they expected. What is most likely to have happened with Marimekko is that the foreign made products (especially the Asian made) came in and as they were cheaper in the beginning people bought them once. Now they don’t buy them anymore again.
I mentioned napkins made in Germany above that Marimekko sells surprisingly more expensive than the domestic ones. I write that because the CEO has been constantly saying that they moved production abroad as domestically there is no “knowhow” anymore for making many of their products. In this particular case, this is something incorrect because a lot of brands produce this product domestically and it is of excellent quality, often much better than any foreign.
Think even of the Christmas box with Christmas cards printed in China that Marimekko had this Christmas. Nobody in Finland will buy Christmas cards to their family printed in China when there is so much domestic offer of exceptional quality. Wouldn’t you pay 1 euro more to get a domestic product to give to those you love?
The pricing strategy of Marimekko is all over the place. No clear strategy. Some products are sold bellow market average for their category and others are sold above. Many products which are sold above their market average are produced in countries known for cheap labor, so people struggle to justify the premium pricing and skip them. Then Marimekko tries big sales to offload them, but still they cannot as inventories go higher and higher.
What we see in front of our eye is the dilution of a historical Finnish brand. This is the reason margins are shrinking, discounts are going on for 12 months a year and you race to the bottom because otherwise nobody has any other incentive to buy your products apart from the cheaper price. Plus, we had 10% more people employed by Marimekko that they didn’t return anything in terms of revenue or profitability.
Tästä pääsi lataamaan tuon alla olevan Evlin raportin:
Muistutuksena, että Marimekko sulki Suomen tehtaansa kangaspainoa lukuun ottamatta kymmenisen vuotta sitten. Vuonna 2015 Suomessa valmistettiin 16 % tuotteista, 2021 (joka on viimeisin raportoitu) 8 %. Eli viime vuosina ei ole tehty mitään merkittävää tuotannonsiirtoa ulkomaille.
Well, we are playing with words now. All the new products they introduced are made abroad. They have expanded the collection from 2015 with many new products or re-introductions of older ideas, but only this time they were made abroad. Let’s talk about particular things so we don’t get lost in generalizations. Was it a good move that the Christmas cards box was made in China? What are the competitive advantages of printing Christmas cards in China to sell them in the Finnish market?
The point of having production in Finland is that they can justify higher prices, so less inventory is needed to achieve same sales. Do you think higher prices can be justified on products made in Asia, when so many other companies also do that but sell at much cheaper prices? We have observed since November massive sales, never seen before for Marimekko. In December there was an up to - 50% on jackets. Even now if you go in the website you get some pop up about sales. Literally, we will have again next quarter shrinking margins, inventories even higher, and people will be “OK, it’s just seasonal.” I don’t know why it is so difficult to see the problem.
