Kiitos selvennyksestä ja lähteistä
CFO Brady vastasi kysymykseen $3 kilohinnasta syyskuussa:
When it comes to operating stations, the number one variable that represents about 80% to 85% of the cost is related to electricity cost. And we believe that we can achieve a target rate of around $0.035 per kilowatt hour, that’s including transmission and distribution. And this is important because if we can achieve that, we believe we can achieve a generating hydrogen onsite for approximately, let’s say, around 2.85, 2.90 including depreciation and amortization, assuming CapEx can be achieved at around $16 million, $17 million.
We feel very confident over the next three or four years on the CapEx side, electrolyzer costs will be dropping 30% to 40%. If you talk to anyone in this space, as capacity is increasing we know we feel confident that cost can be achieved. We believe that’s already happening, likely in China, because their hydrogen ecosystem is much more advanced than in the Western world.
When it comes to electricity price, there’s couple of things that we need to understand. Number one, if you think about renewable PPAs, there are several example of renewable PPAs that have been executed early part of this year, all solar running anywhere from $0.08 [ph] per kilowatt hour to about $0.023 per kilowatt hour. When it comes to wind, especially in the Midwest, you are able to enter into a long-term PPA anywhere from 15 to 25 years for below $0.02 per kilowatt hour. And so, we know for certain in the current environment, you can actually enter into renewables at $0.02.
ja kuten tuossa Hydrogen Council raportissa todetaan tarvitaan myös lisäksi kannustimia
: Falling clean hydrogen costs and applicationspecific cost drivers improve the cost competitiveness of hydrogen applications
From a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective (including hydrogen production, distribution and
retail costs) hydrogen can be the most competitive low-carbon solution for 22 end applications,
including long haul trucking, shipping and steel. However, pure TCO is not the only driver of
application adoption: future expectations on environmental regulations, demands from customers
and associated “green premiums,” as well as the lower cost of capital for ESG-compliant investments
will all influence investment and purchase decisions.
In transport, lower hydrogen supply costs will make most road transportation segments competitive
with conventional options by 2030 without a carbon cost. While battery technology has advanced
rapidly, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are emerging as a complementary solution, in particular for
heavy-duty trucks and long-range segments. In heavy-duty long-haul transport, the FCEV option can
achieve breakeven with diesel in 2028 if hydrogen can be made available for USD 4.5 per kg at the
pump (including hydrogen production, distribution and refueling station costs). Furthermore, hydrogen
combustion (H2 ICE) offers a viable alternative in segments with very high power and uptime
requirements, including heavy mining trucks.
Itse pidän mahdollisena, mutta töitä riittää vielä tehtäväksi