Tuolla 3Q2021 tuloksen yhteydessä on “transcript” jossa energia-asiasta kyseltiin parikin kertaa
Pre-silent callissa mainittiin että 2021 sähkö+energy (LNG, natural gas, ) ovat 360 MEUR. Jostain muistelen että sähkö olisi 250 MEUR tms. Tietenkin hinta/yksikkö vaikuttaa kokonaismäärään, joten pidetään peukkuja että hinnat Olkiluodon myötä laskevat. Suojaukset hidastavat vaikutusta
s. 11
Ioannis Masvoulas
Understood. That’s very useful. And a second question: You mentioned that the energy cost inflation for now has been well managed, partly due to hedging. How should we think about the hedging contracts you have in place and what sort of energy cost inflation we should expect for Q4, for example?
Pia Aaltonen-Forsell
Right. This is an important question. And let me just first sort of paint the background clear here, that obviously energy is important for us. And we are a big electricity consumer. However, two thirds of the electricity that we consume is consumed in Finland and even though I absolutely share the concern of the rising prices of electricity and natural gas and the whole sort of package of energy, I still want to remind that the higher prices that we have seen in the Nordics have been still clearly lower than increases that we have seen in countries like Germany or France or Spain, or why not the U.K., as well, as we have felt. So maybe that’s sort of a first statement.
Secondly, I want to say our hedging policy is one of looking two years ahead and then sort of having a gradually declining hedge ratio. So, if I look into the fourth quarter now, sort of sequentially from the third quarter, we have some impacts in ferrochrome, we have some impacts in long products. And I think it’s probably 10/12 million – depends, of course, a bit also on the spot because we always have like a layer of spot, even though we have hedges there as a backbone, we always have this layer of spot as well to keep some flexibility.
So definitely there is a negative cost impact from Q3 to Q4, and it’s not a small number, but I think at the moment we are definitely speaking about our manageable number. Then, of course, the question is more long term, if prices were to remain elevated; I don’t think the future curves are showing in that direction, but that is obviously a topic. No hedging can protect you forever. And as the quarters go by, we are in a situation where we have then also potentially hedged from a higher level. So without, let’s say, giving the exact data for next year because simply, I think still at this point there might be also a turn in the prices, then at some point. But for the next quarter, it’s a bit more than 10 million, the negative impact.
Heikki Malinen
If I can just still make one remark. Price electricity cost levels here in Nordic have hovered probably around 60 to 70 euros per megawatt hour, depending a bit on the type and source. If you look at other markets, for example, southern Europe, Spain, France, we’ve seen public information €100/150 per megawatt hour. So, as in Finland, we have two thirds of our power consumption, it does at least give us a chance to have at least some sort of cost benefit from there
s. 21
Pia Aaltonen-Forsell
So Q4 is still protected by some of the earlier hedges or contracts that have been there from a lower price level. So obviously, if we continue – but I’m sure you have also noticed that there has been somewhat of a drop again in the prices or it’s been extremely volatile, let’s put it this way – if we were to continue at such a high level, then it would certainly mean that still from Q4 to Q1, there would be one more sort of step up. So, first, just to make that clear, but I think it’s too early really to say because we have seen so big movements as well in India’s energy prices and in the forward prices as we speak.
But then when you ask for the BAs, I would only repeat this: Overall of our electricity consumption, it’s actually two thirds in Finland, and Finland, obviously, is ferrochrome and then it’s the melt shop in Tornio. But there is a fair dose to ferrochrome, for sure. So just to say let’s not forget about that. We really do use electricity there as well.
And then long products, of course, being a smaller BA and then being impacted by the higher energy prices in the UK. So, I think that’s a significant topic to deal with in long products as well, even though, of course, we are not talking about some sort of mega amounts of millions here.
