Outokumpu - Jatkuvaa vuoristorataa vai vakavasti otettava sijoituskohde?

[Dc62]

US: New orders, production and employment grow

The US economy has grown since April 2020, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s latest Manufacturing ISM Report for November 2021 on Business. The manufacturing PMI® registered a reading of 61.1 per cent in November, up 0.3 percentage points from October’s reading of 60.8 per cent.

Moderate to strong growth in November 2021

All six of the largest manufacturing sectors – computer and electronic products, food, beverages and tobacco, chemical products, petroleum and coal products, fabricated metal products, and transportation equipment, in that order – posted moderate to strong growth in November.

Strong stainless steel scrap prices in the United States

US scrap prices for 300-series stainless steel have continued to increase since the beginning of December, rising by approximately 1.5%. Strong demand is still expected to hold into the new year. Scrap prices for the 400 series also continue to hold at a consistently high level.

Chinese stainless steel production to fall significantly in January 2022

Due to traditional maintenance work in Chinese stainless steel plants, production volumes are expected to fall significantly in January 2022. This could put additional pressure on Chinese stainless steel production, which has already been restricted by the government due to the Winter Olympics until March 2022.

Toiveissa olis, että evergrande hoitais velkojansa ens yön aikana

[MiamiFan]

Ferrokromin benchmark hinta Q12022 vahvistettiin: 1.80 usd/lbs eli sama kuin Q42021

[Moihe]

Onko joku kahlannut läpi 2020 vaihtovelkakirjan ehtoja? Saako Outokumpu ostaa takaisin vaihtovelkakirjan markkinoilta? Nyt jos yhtiö haluaisi lunastaa Velan, niin se maksaisi 194 miljoonaa euroa. Velan kuponkikorko on 5% ja 250 miljoonan velan korko oli 4,1%. Itse en ainakaan ole kuullut käytännöstä, että liikkeellelaskija ei saisi lunastaa velkaa ennenaikaisesti. Uskooko johto siis, että ennen vuotta 2025 yhtiön kurssi laskee nykyisestään tarpeeksi, jolloin velka olisi myös halvempi lunastaa?

[Opa]

Tuolta voi tavata vvk:n ehtoja, 50 sivua. Mitä selasin niin sivulla 36 jonkun verotuslunastusehdon lisäksi on oheinen kappale.

Pitäisiköhän tuo tulkita että jos 85% vvk:n arvosta on toteutettu, ja/tai Outokumpu hankkinut vvk:ta niin että taso ylittyy, loput voi lunastaa. Em voinee tulkita myös jos Outokumpu saa sovittua vapaaehtoisesti 85% vvk-poppoon kanssa lunastuksesta niin loput voi lunastaa tuolla pykälällä ilman että ihan kaikkien kanssa tarvitsee sopia

Rahoitus ja velkatietoa

[Opa]

Inderesin Ferrokromikommentit:

Ferrokromin sopimushinta pysyttelee ennätystasolla Q1’22:lla

[Dc62]

Steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were traded higher in the morning session, as Beijing’s recent monetary policy and stance brought hopes of recovering steel demand in the first half of 2022, according to GF Futures.

Construction used steel rebar edged 0.6% higher to 4,373 yuan per tonne.

Hot rolled coils, used in the manufacturing sector, rose 0.8% to 4,510 yuan a tonne.

Shanghai stainless steel futures, for January delivery, leaped 1.2% to 15,930 yuan per tonne.

Tais minun povaama ma posari tulla jo vkonlopun kalevassa, jossa ollu iso positiivinen juttu outsasta. Saisko joku tehtyä lyhennelmän siitä tänne

[Opa]

KL-palstalla joku oli tiivistänyt ao mukaisesti.
Vaikka onkin esillä ollutta tietoa, on tietenkin hyvä jos asiat on toistettu tuoreessa artikkelissa, osarista on jo yli 1 kk aikaa.

Vaikka artikkeli tuon palstalaisen tiivistelmän perusteella on omistajalle toki henkinen posari, varsinaista posaria Outokummun osalta ei käyttökatteesta oikein voi saada, koska se ohjeistettiin jo nousevaksi (nousee / flat / laskee), mutta toimitusmääristä sanottiin “vain” flat. Mutta voiko mennä yli, kai se olisi mahdollista koska 3Q vs 2Q oli Europe -13% (355 vs 410 ttons) ja Americas flat (194 vs 192 t tons). Riippuu kai onko ollut kysyntä kohdillaan, miten joulunajan kysyntä menee, ja olikos Calvertissa huoltojabreikkejä tulossa. Europen 3Q-lasku johtui Tornion huollosta.

Huvikseen voi laskea, että jos 4Q olisi Europen osalta -5% vs 410 (2Q) joulun johdosta ja Americas 192 (sama kuin 2Q), tuotanto olisi +6% (95% x 410+192)/355+194). Olisiko se posarin arvoinen ylitys vs “similar”? En tiedä, mutta ehkä ainakin “ennakkotietojen” / tarkentamisen antamisen arvoista sitten tammikuussa.

Sanomalehti Kalevassa kahden aukeaman juttu Outokummun
Terästehtaan tuotannosta.
Tämän jutun kun luki,oli kuin lukisi posaria,niin positiivinen kuva ainakin
itselle jäi.Varsinkin viimeiset luetut tekstit:-Miesmuistiin ei ole ollut näin vahvaa
markkinatilannetta kuin nyt,erittäin kova kysyntä,sekä tilauskanta ensi kesään asti,tilauskanta normaalistin,3 kk-4kk
Rosteri on kasvuala ja kasvaa n.5% vuosittain,näkymät Malisen mukaan erittäin suotuisat
Mielenkiintoinen seikka Tornion tehtaalla,noin 90% raaka-aineesta on
romua,romusta on tullut erittäin haluttu raaka-aine.

[Dc62]

Global stainless steel melt shop output up 17% in the first 9 months of 2021: ISSF Steel Business Briefing03:09

Enormous metal demand for renewable energies

Up to three billion tonnes of metals are needed, in addition to new materials and processes, for the conversion to renewable energies. This is the result of a recent study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

EU stainless steel scrap

As reported last week, US stainless steel scrap prices are holding at high levels and have even risen further. Similar reports are now coming from Europe. Especially in Italy and France, there is a high demand for stainless steel scrap, which has already caused prices to rise by about $112 per tonne of 304 and 316 in December 2021.

[Akilussir]

Outokumpu price target raised to EUR 10 from EUR 9 at JPMorgan

[Dc62]

https://www.scrapmonster.com/news/-/1/81865
Nucor to acquire majority stake over california steel industries

Alkaako alalla konsolidaatio, joko Outolta lähtee long products?

[Dc62]

Eurozone industry off to strong start in Q4 2021

In October 2021 compared with September 2021, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Compared with October 2020, industrial production in October 2021 increased by 3.3% in the euro area and by 3.6% in the EU.

Manufacturing sector driving growth in the euro zone

We see the manufacturing sector as the growth engine in the euro zone for 2022, with order backlogs remaining at a historic high. Investment by shipping lines in new container ships could help logistical problems slowly improve during 2022. However, with pent-up demand from industries in the euro zone and the United States, global supply of steel, stainless steel and aluminum is likely to remain manageable.

Explosion at US stainless steel plant

An explosion occurred last week at a US stainless steel facility in Bridgeville, Pennsylvania. According to the company, the explosion was caused by a crane failure. This had spilled hot liquid metal during its failure. One worker was slightly injured. The plant is expected to be down for several days.

[Glarin]

Vähentää mitä? Shorttia? Omistusta? Jäi vähän epäselväksi tuosta viestistä.

[bull_heart]

Tällä vaan tarkoitettiin sitä, että Millenium vähensi shorttia 13.12.2021. Uusi positio 1,17 %, kun aikaisempi oli 1,28 %. Vähennystä siis noin 500 kilo-osaketta. Tässä vielä kyseisen toimijan viimeaikojen tapahtumat:

Tässä vielä linkki shortnordic:n sivuille (Outokumpu):

ShortNordic.com - updated short positions

[Dc62]

December 16, 20215:59 AM EETLast Updated an hour ago

Commodities

China ferrous materials leap on hopes of rising steel output

BEIJING, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Chinese steelmaking raw materials futures advanced on Thursday, with coking coal up more than 3%, fuelled by hopes of recovering steel production after stringent curbs in the first 11 months of the year.

The world’s top steel producer churned out 946.36 million tonnes of the metal during January to November, down 2.6% from the same period last year, in an accelerating decline driven by strict output curtailment. read more

Huatai Futures wrote in a note that since targets for crude steel output have now been met, some mills are resuming production and profitability is relatively good.

A government consultancy on Wednesday predicted that China’s steel demand could dip in 2022 from this year, but consumption from infrastructure construction, automobile and other sectors will continue to offer support. read more

Benchmark iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange , for May delivery, increased 1.6% to 666 yuan ($104.58) per tonne as of 0315 GMT.

Spot prices of iron ore with 62% iron content for delivery to China , compiled by SteelHome consultancy, was unchanged at $115.5 per tonne on Wednesday.
Steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also gained. Construction used rebar increased 1.3% to 4,480 yuan a tonne and hot rolled coils , used in the manufacturing sector, were up 1.7% at 4,676 yuan per tonne.

Shanghai stainless steel futures , for February delivery, inched 0.2% higher to 16,130 yuan a tonne.

[Dc62]

Nickel, aluminum and copper up

The LME, but also the SHFE, show today quite positive. Especially for nickel (+1.29%), aluminum (+1.22%) and copper (+2%) it goes up on the LME today neatly. But also zinc (+1.2%) and lead (+1.42%) move along well. The background here is the tapering of the US Federal Reserve doubled to $ 30 billion and the expected interest rate increases in 2022.

There are also good figures to report from China. For hot-rolled coil, iron ore, stainless steel and coke futures it goes up. Base Metals are also showing up on the SHFE.

NPI production Falls

In China, production remains constrained at some nickel producers, which has led to a decline not only in nickel pig iron (NPI) production, but also in high-grade nickel. As a result, approximately 8,000 MT less nickel products are expected to be produced in December.

Chinese import tariffs on steel to fall

Furthermore, it is interesting to note that China could lower import tariffs on some steel products in 2022. This leads to the logical conclusion that China itself has shortcomings in its steel supply.

[Dc62]

Nippon Steel Stainless Steel Corp (NSSC), the largest stainless steel manufacturer in Japan, decided to raise its December prices of 300 and 400 series stainless steel by 25,000 yen/ton and 15,000 yen/ton, respectively.

According to NSSC, the price adjustment in 300 series stainless steel was to reflect the increased LME nickel average price and unit prices of other alloys and raw materials. Besides, the increase in costs of logistics, energy, ferroalloys, and other raw materials have also affected stainless steel prices.

Jokohan outokin kohta hintoja nostais?

[Dc62]

Tulenee vaikuttamaan negatiivisesti terässektoriin tänään

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-steel-slumps-profit-warning-214820333.html

[Dc62]

Markets react positively to central bank announcements

After only the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and yesterday (Thursday) the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) announced measures against the increased inflation, the markets have reacted extremely positively to these stabilizing signals.

LME in uptrend

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), all base metals were already up significantly on Thursday.

LME, December 16, 2021: Nickel +2.66%, aluminum +2.70%, zinc +4.60%, lead +1.05%. Copper +3.35%, Tin +1.92%.

Today, base metals continue to trend in positive territory. Aluminum in particular has picked up and is back above $2,700 per ton. Nickel is up about 1%.

SHFE base metal futures move up

On the Shanghai Future Exchange (SHFE), it looks quite similar in response to yesterday’s announcements from Europe. All base metals are up nicely here as well.

SHFE, Dec 17, 2021, 4:00 pm (GMT+8): Nickel +2.0%, aluminum 2.27%, zinc +3.3% lead +2.25%, copper +1.92%, tin +1.9%.

Joo joten pitäkäämme kiinni lapuistamme. Jotenkin on tyhmää että outo seuraa mukamas hiiliteräs yhtiötä united state steeliä…

[bull_heart]

Millenium alkaa livetä rintamasta

Vähennys 1,17 % > 1,06 %. Taas samat noin 500 “kilo-osaketta”. Kun näitä sulkemisia tapahtuu, niin se näkyy selkeästi kyseisen päivän kurssista.

[Moihe]

Rosterin hinta jatkaa nousuaan, koska rosteria ei ole tarpeeksi tarjolla Euroopassa. 2mm 304 laadun hinta on nyt 4350-4500€ tonnilta. Viime viikosta hinta on noussut 100-150€ tonnilta. Jos uskoo, että hinta perustuu kysyntään ja tarjontaan, niin Outokummun vuosi 2022 vaikuttaa lupaavalta.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4020898/stainless-flat-products/European-cold-rolled-stainless-steel-prices-push-higher-on-ongoing-tightness.html