Arctic Securities oppjusterer sitt kursmål på Rec Silicon til 28 fra tidligere 19 kroner pr aksje, samtidig som de gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling.
"REC Silicon (Buy, NOK 28.0 (19.0)): Higher chance of commercial silicon anodes
REC Silicon ASA
Recommendation: Buy · Target Price: NOK 28.0 (19.0) · Current Share Price: NOK 18.55
Higher chance of commercial silicon anodes
The battery industry is striving for cheaper batteries on a per kWh-basis, and silicon anodes not only represent the most promising route to lower costs, but also compatibility with current Li-ion batteries and their value chains. Based on the effort and capital put into R&D, we believe the chance of commercialization is increasing. Our TP of NOK 28 (19) is based on a 70% chance of a Moses Lake reopening, solely serving the battery industry in 50% of the outcomes.
If commercialized, REC would eventually get full utilization
Silicon anodes as a replacement for graphite anodes have the potential to improve the energy density of current Li-ion batteries by 50%, thereby reducing material needed and manufacturing time, and hence cost. Minimizing USD/kWh represents the shortest path to improving the competitiveness of EV’s and is also key to unlocking the vast market potential associated with grid stabilization, which theoretically represents an equally big market opportunity. More than 30 companies are working on mitigating/solving the swelling issue, including e.g. Group 14. These companies’ indicated progress and access to capital (e.g. exemplified by Sila Nano’s recent equity raise of USD 590m at a USD 3.3bn valuation) make us more optimistic as to the likelihood of commercialization. To overcome the swelling issue, our understanding is that the required standard with regards to silicon purity/consistency only can be achieved through silane gas, of which REC is the dominant producer (Butte with ~70% current market share and Moses Lake with 25,000 tons of idle capacity). In a commercialization-scenario, it is not challenging to envision that REC’s entire silane capacity will be directed towards the battery industry - in fact, its silane know-how could be relevant for next-generation capacity expansions.
An increasing likelihood of commercialization warrants higher TP
Our TP of NOK 28 (19) is based on a 70% chance of a Moses Lake reopening, solely serving the battery industry in 50% of the outcomes (up from 25%). Moses Lake could also serve the solar industry, but such scenario will in our view offer more downside protection than meaningful upside vs. the current share price.