The 50/50 is my best estimate atm based on Sampo’s comments and decision to kick payout off with buybacks. As Sampo has large institutional investor base who mainly prefer buybacks and large domestic ownership who prefer dividends, I believe the 50/50 would be something for everybody. As you pointed out, Sampo cannot use the whole 5b for buybacks as there is simply not enought trading volume. I have roughly calculated that Sampo could do some 250-350m/Q in buybacks with current trading volume. If Sampo would do buybacks throughout the strategy period (2021-2023) this would lead to a total amount of buybacks of 2-3b. I dont think Sampo would like to extend Nordea asset-sale related buybacks to longer than 2023 (would mean to a significant excess capital overhang in balance sheet). Thereby the 50/50 kind of indicates the maximum level of buybacks what Sampo can do. Obviously the 50/50 is just a best quess, the end result can also be 60-70% dividends and 30-40% buybacks, but it is difficult to see buybacks being lower than 30% (another 750m program would ramp the total amount close to 30% already).
As long as the share price is under sum of parts, the buybacks actually create value, altough the value creating effect is fairly small. However it is easy to say that buybacks at current level won’t destroy value in any scenario. It is important to understand that the old Sampo used buybacks only as a tool to create value (buy when share price is low), as the new Sampo is doing buybacks more traditional way (just buy and don’t care about the market price).
