Sampo - Vakuuttava vakuuttaja

Onko Sampo avannut mitenkään heidän investointejaan tekoälyyn? Voisin helposti kuvitella vakuutustoiminnassa olevan merkittäviä tehokkuutta lisääviä hyötyjä jo nykyisten teknologioiden avulla. Tekoäly kun on aika iso trendi juuri nyt ja mahdollisuudet siihen että se mullistaa lukuisat alat alkaa olemaan ihan kohtuulliset, niin junasta ei kannattaisi jäädä.

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En nyt muista mitä Sampon presentaatiota kuuntelin mutta panostukset it puolelle on varsin merkittävät ja on tällä hetkellä näissä asioissa edelläkäviä ja tarkoitus myös olla jatkossa. En olisi huolissani. Itse työskentelen vakuutuksien parissa mutta toisessa yhtiössä. Uusia toimintatapoja otetaan käyttöön mutta meillä järjestelmät ovat valovuoden perässä IF:stä (kolleegoilta kuullut jotka siirtyneet If:stä).

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Muistutuksena tännekin, että ilmoittautuminen ylimääräiseen yhtiökokoukseen ja ennakkoäänestys päättyvät tänään klo 15.00.

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Viranomaisluvat vaihtotarjoukselle saatu: https://www.sampo.com/fi/media/tiedotteet-ja-uutiset/2024/kaikki-tarvittavat-viranomaisluvat-topdanmarkin-osakkeenomistajille-tehtavalle-vaihtotarjoukselle-on-saatu/

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Ja tässä olisi Kaisan kommentit siihen liittyen. :slight_smile:

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Tryg Q2 results: Tryg A/S – Q2 and H1 report 2024 | Placera

Financial highlights Q2 2024

Insurance revenue growth of 3.9% in local currencies
Insurance service result of DKK 2,212m (DKK 1,759m)
Combined ratio of 76.8 (80.9)
Expense ratio of 13.6 (13.3)
Investment result of DKK 347m (DKK 53m)
Profit before tax of DKK 2,129m (DKK 1,229m)
Quarterly ordinary dividend of DKK 1.95 (DKK 1.85) per share and solvency ratio of 195

Financial highlights H1 2024

Insurance revenue growth of 4.4% in local currencies
Insurance service result of DKK 3,486m (DKK 3,233m)
Combined ratio of 81.7 (82.4)
Expense ratio of 13.6 (13.3)
Investment result of DKK 464m (DKK 220m)
Profit before tax of DKK 3,136m (DKK 2,416m)
Dividend per share of DKK 3.90 (DKK 3.70) per share

Just wow. Never ever have I seen such a good combined ratio of 76.8%, and I have followed the insurance market in the Nordics since 2008. Just impressive.

In Q2 Tryg displayed highly impressive numbers: Return on on Own Funds: 44.3%, Return on Tangible Equity: 65,2%.

This is good results indication for Sampo and Topdanmark :sunglasses:

Edit: It is primarily the Swedish bransch that contributes to the excellent Q2 (CoR, 60,2%). If Sweden is also the crown jewel in Sampo. Tryg Denmark had 82,1 %, and Tryg Norway 88,1%.

This would indicate that Topdanmark results will not probably be as good as Tryg.

Tryg had also a very benign large claims experience. This is not expected for Sampo (case the big fire in Börsen) Forsikringen dækker hele regningen efter Børsen-brand | Nyheder | DR

This article states that “Den 400 år gamle Børsen-bygning var opført til en værdi af godt 400 millioner kroner. Den værdi kan fastholdes, da If Forsikring dækker hele værdien af bygningen, lyder det fra Lars Daugaard Jepsen”. Of course Sampo has mitigated risk via re-insurance.

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Topdanmark results: softer than expected.

Many of the items was known beforehand, such as the extra costs to Nordea for failed IT - integration (one-off costs of DKK 195m), but some things surprised me:

First one Oona Health charge (the acquisition already starts to smell like :poop:)

"This line item covers costs related to the acquisition of Oona Health, including
amortisation of customer relations and brand rights as well as one-off costs related to the transaction and integration. The profit forecast model assumes a lower level of special costs of DKK 50-55m due to timing of integration tasks"

Secondly: So Sampo’s plan to buy Topdanmark has some costs for Topdanmark shareholders :roll_eyes:

"As part of the exchange offer from Sampo, Topdanmark has incurred and will incur
extraordinary costs related to the transaction. These costs are expected to amount to
DKK 90-110m with no assumed tax deductibility."

And thirdly, the so called Arne tax kicks in. :pensive: Arne tax is named after a old man name Arne that had done hard labour his entire life, and wanted early retirement and to pay for this the Social Democrats decided that there will be higher company taxes for banks and insurance companies in Denmark (no I am not making this up…). Other companies pay 22%.

As at 1 January 2024, the statutory tax rate for Topdanmark Forsikring
A/S has increased to 26% (2023: 25.2%).

But generally the insurance business was also on the weaker side. This is the risk of operating in one country only.

Topdanmark half-year report for 2024

H1 2024

Profit after tax of DKK 488m (H1 2023: DKK 633m)
Operating EPS was DKK 8.0 (H1 2023: DKK 7.1)
Combined ratio: 85.4 (H1 2023: 82.9)
Combined ratio excluding run-off profits: 88.3 (H1 2023: 85.2)
Insurance revenue increased by 12.7% with an organic growth of 5.0%
Net investment result was DKK 244m (H1 2023: DKK 24m).

Q2 2024

Profit after tax of DKK 112m (Q2 2023: DKK 260m)
Operating EPS was DKK 3.6 (Q2 2023: DKK 2.9)
Combined ratio: 86.0 (Q2 2023: 82.3)
Combined ratio excluding run-off: 88.2 (Q2 2023: 84.5)
Insurance revenue increased by 13.6% with an organic growth of 5.8%
Net investment result was DKK 86m (Q2 2023: DKK -82m).

Profit forecast model for 2024

The expected organic insurance revenue growth is improved from above 4.5% to around 6%.
The assumed combined ratio for 2024 is narrowed from 81.8-84.8 to 83-85 including run-off.
The profit forecast for 2024 has been adjusted from DKK 1,250-1,525m to DKK 950-1,175m after tax and including run-off. The lower expected net profit is a result of one-off costs related to the IT separation agreement with Nordea, and transaction costs related to the exchange offer from Sampo.
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On the topic of extraordinary costs related to the exchange offer from Sampo, Topdanmark uses Carnegie investment bank as an advisor.

As a shareholder of both Sampo and Topdanmark I do not like the fact that Carnegie is engaged in block sales/buys of Topdanmark shares this close to Sampo’s offer of Topdanmark (given the fact that Carnegie acts as advisor).

Sampo offer was published on Monday the 17th of June, and the picture below from my phone is from 12th of June (Wed) when Carnegie traded 40000 shares of Topdanmark.

I am not saying anything illegal took place, but the timing is this block annoy me personally as an outsider I have no information as to the underlying premise of this trade

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