Vähän matematiikkaa perjantain ratoksi, Q3 kiinteät kulut olivat karkeasti 18m eli jos tosta extrapoloi sellaiset sanotaan nyt 25m per Q kiinteät kulut tälle vuodelle niin gross profittia pitäisi tulla se 100m jotta ollaan breakeven EBITDA.
Q4 2021 ei varmasti ole EBITDA breakevenissä tai varsinkaan plussalla tämän raportin perusteella.
Markku ja Colin keskustelee Voxturin numeroista ja varmaan kaikesta muustakin.
Gary on Markulle vahvistanut että AOL tai Voxtur wealth (mahdolliset) tulot ei ole 2022 ennusteessa mukana. Molemma herrat (ei yllättäen) pitävät 2022 ennustetta hyvin maltillisena ja konservatiivisena.
Nice interview @Colin_Fisher, well explained.
UWM toiseksi suurin asuntolainaaja 2021. Sitä toivoisi, että Voxtur saisi tästä ryhmästä kohta jo seuraavankin asiakkaan…
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, released Thursday by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, showed a reshuffle in the top 10 lenders by volume for 2021.
Those top 10 are:
Rocket Mortgage
United Wholesale Mortgage
Wells Fargo
LoanDepot
JPMorgan Chase
New Residential Investment Corp.
Freedom Mortgage
Bank of America
Homepoint
Guaranteed Rate
Tuo olisi varmaan loogisen kuuloinen selitys sille, että Q4-liikevaihtoluvuille annettiin vielä tässäkin vaiheessa se aika monen miljoonan dollarin haarukka 
Oliko noissa 2022 luvuissa mukana ne foreclosure-bisnekset, mitkä oli jäissä korona-ajan?
”Additional benefits are expected to come from the continuing effects of the lifting of foreclosure moratoria in the U.S., which is expected to result in increased revenue from default management, and the federal government’s strong push for more affordable home ownership in the U.S., which should open the door for widespread adoption of Voxtur’s alternative valuation and title products. ”
Tämmöinenkin portaali löytyy vendor.voxturappraisal.com
Tuntuu kyllä että näitä uusia sivustoja löytyy aina kun jaksaa vain googleen kirjoittaa Voxtur 
Ei kyllä tietoa mihin käyttöön tuo on, mutta nimestä päätellen vendoreiden apprisal kirjautumis-sivu.
E. tämä lienee korvannut vain aikaisemmin tältä sivustolta https://www.voxturappraisal.com/ löytyneen login-sivun joka ei nykyään johda enää mihinkään. Saisivat kyllä fixata nuo linkit…
Tämmöistä…
Mauri pyöräytti näköjään vielä Youtube videonkin tästä
Tuossa on se raportti, johon varmaan viitataan.
Jaksoin kahlata toissa iltana jonnekin puoleen väliin ja loput lukematta. Kyllä siellä joitain viittauksia on, joista voisi olla jotain hyötyä Voxturillekin.
Tässä oli joku pikku kohta esim. mutta tosiaan lukeminen kesken ja aika pitkä raportti, lukekaa ihmeessä jos jaksatte:
Agency Actions to Advance Valuation Equity
Strengthening guardrails against unlawful discrimination in all stages of
residential valuation
1.1 Clarify the application of the Fair Housing Act and ECOA to the appraisal industry to ensure
appraisers have clear guidance on antidiscrimination obligations under current federal laws.
1.2 Update agencies’ and Government Sponsored Enterprises’ appraisal-specific policies and
guidance to reflect how nondiscrimination requirements apply to appraisers within these
agencies’ and Enterprises’ programs.
1.3 Issue guidance and implement new policies to improve the processes by which a valuation
may be reconsidered if the initial value is lower than expected.
1.4 Strengthen the standard appraisal dataset and data collection forms to reduce opportunities
for appraisers to apply subjective criteria.
1.5 Address potential bias in the use of technology-based valuation tools through rulemaking
related to Automated Valuation Models (AVMs).
1.6 Develop a legislative proposal that modernizes the governance structure of the appraisal industry to improve transparency and public participation in the establishment of appraisal
standards and appraiser qualification criteria, and to advance diversity in the profession.
Enhancing fair housing / fair lending enforcement and driving accountability
in the industry
Mielenkiintoista tässä on toki, että Appraisalin lisäksi identifioitiin ongelmaksi myös Tittle puoli, joten ehkäpä se on sitten seuraavaksi tulossa!?
Sitten sellainen oli ainakin ihan kiintoisa kohta, että koitetaan antaa kuluttajalle eväitä myäs hakea oikaisua, eli siihenhän pitää olla jotain dataa ja verrokkeja sitten saatavissa jostain, johon verrata ja hakea oikaisua bias Appraisaliin.
Action 1.5
Address potential bias in the use of technology-based valuation tools through rulemaking
related to Automated Valuation Models (AVMs).
The Task Force’s purview focused on appraisals, but its evaluation of government responses has
included consideration of appraisal alternatives such as AVMs. The Dodd-Frank Act required
regulators of mortgage financing to promulgate a rule that establishes quality control standards
for AVMs. Dodd-Frank defined AVMs as “any computerized model used by mortgage originators
and secondary market issuers to determine the collateral worth of a mortgage secured by a
ACTION PLAN TO THE PRESIDENT ON ADVANCING APPRAISAL EQUITY
PAGE 27
dwelling 69
consumer’s principal dwelling.”69 These models typically build on the sales comparison approach
used in appraisals, but the selection, adjustment, and weighting are often based on statistical correlations among previous transactions, producing an estimate for a property in average condition,
often without observing the condition of the property being appraised.
While AVMs have the potential, if properly used, to reduce human bias and improve consistency in
decision-making, they are not immune from the risk of discrimination. For example, the models may
rely upon biased data that could replicate past discrimination or even data that could include protected
characteristics, such as race, or very close proxies for them. Moreover, if an algorithm were to generate
discriminatory results, the harm could be widespread because of an AVM’s scale.
Actions:
• Agencies participating in AVM rulemaking commit to address potential bias by including
a nondiscrimination quality control standard in the proposed rule.
Aiai naminami
Porin_Mauri tässä hehkuttaa oikein hienosti.
Olikos se nyt niin että AOL ei ole vielä missään ennusteissa ja toteutuessaan sen bisneksen arvo Voxturille olisi… jotain miljardia?
Edit: meidän Colin_Turskan mukaan AOL mahdollisuudet näemmä arvioituna “in the low billions”
How ironic. Mariusz talking about preventing bias, when clearly his bias towards Voxtur is off the charts. I really liked his story about Voxtur’s imminent success, but he seems to interpret any information as favorable towards Voxtur.
I wrote a comment on that exact video, which does not seem to be visible to others. Maybe this is not his fault, but I do suspect that he is doing some kind of censoring. Of course I could be wrong though.
About the issue: Kamala Harris is not comparing appraisal algorithms with in person appraisals. She’s only talking about appraisal algorithms and saying that they might be a problem. So saying that voxtur has the technology that removes bias is incorect, unfortunately. For example, when appraising a house, Voxtur would use data about similiar houses that were sold in the same area, right? What if these houses were in-person appraisals and the appraisers were racists? The data that voxtur draws on is then biased, which is a problem.
Correct me if I am wrong. Certain neighborhoods are more expensive than others, mainly due to the location and the social status of the area. This can not be solved with appraisals, it is not meant to be solved. But for example if one property is to be sold, the algorithms might average the price instead of bias personally made appraisal, thus owners of this property would get a better deal. Another story is if the information fed to algorithms it self is bias.
Absolutely right. The algorithms should just average out the valuation from deals that have been made on the near neighborhood plus adding the specifics of the property that is being valuated. So any human factor should be nullified in the process. Ghettos and luxury areas are still gonna be valuated differently but the owners ethnicity is out of the equation.
I would summarize this as ”algorithms can be a good thing for appraisals, but they need to be used carefully” - just mentioning this is a positive thing for Voxtur, but that’s it. I don’t know Voxtur’s appraisal technology/processes in good enough detail to say whether they already have some tools in place for monitoring/reducing bias, but this shouldn’t be a totally new thing, especially in the banking industry. However, on the larger scale, the ethics of AI is still in its infancy, both in terms of legislation and technology, so happy to see these issues being discussed 
Mariuszin tekstiä: "I suggest you have a look at my playlist before Voxtur does 50x. "
Em. kommentin kannustamana omia ajatuksia, joita tästä hyvästä ketjusta pystyy muodostamaan:
ollaan surullisen kuuluisassa Toronton pörssissä (surullisen kuuluisa koska mm. Dynacert, Medexus, Clear Blue Techologies)
listautuminen NY-pörssiin suunnitteilla “pian”, koska osake aliarvostettu kotipörssissä (kuulostaa tutulta)
osakkeen ympärillä paljon puhetta tyyliin “kukaan ei vielä ymmärrä”, “potentiaalia 50x”, “pian alkaa tapahtumaan” (hieman liian hyvää ollakseen totta).
liiketoiminta on vaikeasti arvioitava sillisalaatti yritysostoja. (riski)
Orgaaninen kasvu on vielä kysymysmerkki (riski)
yrityksen raportonti on epämääräistä (onko kirjanpitoon liittyvät asiat kunnossa)
Yhteenveto
Osakkeessa on monia kysymysmerkkejä.
Ihan täysi arpalippu tämä ei todennäköisesti ole, koska tulos on kehittynyt yritysostoilla säällisesti.
mutta pump and dump- meininki on vahvaa. Vielä ei ole minkäänlaista katetta “50x-puheille” ja vahvasti kannattavalle ja skaalautuvalle liiketoiminnalle. Ne ovat vielä aika puhtaasti bull-skenaario.
Lisäys: omistan osaketta.
Exactly. The only thing I’d disagree with you on would be your point that owners of a property would always get a better deal when an unbiased, algorithm-based appraisal procedure is used. Bias goes both ways. Only owners that would otherwise be discriminated would benefit from a less biased and algorithm-based procedure. Other owners might actually be benefitting from a biased evaluation right now, because the property value is judged to be higher than it should actually be.
(But that’s maybe too theoretical now and I’m not even sure if you considered that scenario.)
100%. I’d be very interested in hearing from the company if they already have any plans in place to tackle the bias issue. If so, Kamala Harris’ speech would indeed mean good news for Voxtur.
