I think the point was that there are still risks in Voxtur, it most certainly ain’t a 100% multibagger.
I like the odds though, that’s why Voxtur is something like 25% of my investments.
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Ok I hear ya but on Shark Tank they rarely hand out more than 50% of their companies, in fact I think the average is around 20-25% (saw something to than extent, cant remember where)
That’s why I asked.
I had this better analogy with Paw Patrol but it probably doesn’t add anything to this discussion so I’m gonna leave it out lol.
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Tällaiseen podcastiin törmäsin. Lähinnä Mauri pyörittelee osakkeen arvostusta ja kertoimia…
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Pari päivää vanha podcast-jakso Fannie Maen uutisesta, ei tainnut olla vielä täällä: Fannie Mae’s big announcement on title insurance - HousingWire
EDIT: 5:30 kohdasta alkaen puhutaan Voxturista
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Tämä Colinin ja Maurin viimeisin keskustelu tuntuu olevan kadonnut. Pääsikö joku katsomaan tuota?
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Taitaa olla vasta tulossa tänään.
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Ahaa,ok! Jäämme odottamaan.
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Jotain pohdintaa Redditissä:
”Valuation based on comparables.
What should be noted as well is the discount this is still trading at relative to other proptech companies that trade at a much higher multiple from a p/s (ttm) and the growth rate.
For instance, VXTR put out a guidance of about 92-97m rev for the year and and the marketcap is 765m atm. that’s a p/s(ttm) of 7.8.
MTTR has a p/s (TTM) of 18.
Margins are comparable and MTTR port projects about 31-34% growth.
VXTR expects put out a guidance ,which was before the recent NR in regards to AOL that expected about 100% growth rate. the NR in regards to AOL will raise their guidance and there are so many arms of the business that is not taken into account.
So what does this all mean?
just based on a basic ttm valuation vxtr should be valued more then double from where it is right now. with the 100% growth rate the valuation should be even higher so much more then a double. The AOL news adds more fuel to what multiple this should be trading at as . What you get at these prices is a high growth company trading at multiples that is criminally lower then its peers despite having more aggressive growth rates and comparable margins.
Recession resistance
Not only that but this is a recession resistant investment as they have a foreclosure side ,which will benefit from a recession. on top of that the TAM is massive for the assessment services as even in a recession it saves the customer money. When times are tough people will be want to be tighter with their wallets . This AOL lowers the closing cost on house appraisals, so the increase in interest rates makes the PERFECT storm to grab marketshare at a rate that I feel comfortable holding despite a possible contraction in multiples in the tech industry. This can be noted by the relative strength in SP in not only relative to proptech but to the NASDAQ. Just look at the divergence in price action.TradingView Chart — TradingView
Outperforming the market
While NASDAQ and the general market seems to be experiencing a lot of turmoil VXTR not only held strong through the volatility but is going up while nasdaq is going down. That indicates amazing confidence amongst investors despite whatever may happen around the world and in the market. You are investing in a paradigm shift in the real-estate industry. The growth that will happen is very difficult to grasp, but the numbers are there and management is lowballing their growth projections by a wide margin.
But it went up so much, is it too late?
Imagine if you sold APPL in 2008 because the SP doubled . The market is forward looking and aslong as growth is promised and it is executed on then there is really no limit on how high a SP can go. VXTR is so early in it’s story, if anything you are stepping right into it’s inflection point where so many different sides of the business is coming on line and firing on all cylinders while getting ready to step into the big stage in the NASDAQ. I know NASDAQ uplistings have not all been that amazing in the recent years but VXTR has the growth rate , and multiples to justify a run. as it get’s rerated to something that is more fair relative to other proptech companies. When you look under the hood and look at the quality of revenue Voxtur will generate, the answer is obvious.
Betting on the Jockey
This is not your typical penny stock as the Chairman has a track record of building Altus. aside from the most recent price action, long term shareholders are very happy with what Gary Yeoman has contributed to company.
As for people who want to jump on commodities in various energy sectors. Voxtur will be a commodity in real estate. The have the MOAT and first mover advantage in AOL.”
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On hyvä vertailla kertoimia ja on erittäin hyvä nähdä, että Voxturin kertoimet ovat säälliset.
Onko nousuvaraa kertoimien puolesta 100%? Eipä ole nykytilanteessa. Kertoimet nousevat näyttöjen perusteella jos ovat noustakseen, eivät ne ole ns. ilmainen lounas.
Jenkkipörssissä eletään vielä tietynlaisessa kuplassa ja jaksetaan aika usein spekuloida kovastikin arvostuksilla - sijoituskeissin pihvi on kuitenkin kaikessa muussa.
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Yes. When those possibilities happen, then you can say Voxtur is massive. To me “is” means today, not tomorrow. Now we buy a small company, which made about 100m$ sales in 2021 and no profit, because of the very good potential it has.
Of course it’s better to buy before before than after, because stock price will follow when top line and bottom line grow.
For your sake I hope that Voxtur is going to do well. 
I like the odds too but I never gamble.
And finally some mindsets:
“I think the company has a good enough chance of success” - investor
“I know what’s going to happen” - believer
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This is kind of offtopic, but short comment:
If one is all in Voxtur, propable future scenarios are:
a) Voxtur disappoints. One does not get very rich
b) Voxtur succeeds. One thinks that all in works as a method and goes all in again in another stock. And loses money.
All in can realistically work only in very limited investment project. Life long investing is something else.
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Jos kertoimet pysyisi at samalla tasolla ja liikevaihto kasvaisi 100%, niin silloinhan tuplataan? Jos kertoimet venyvät ja liikevaihto tuplataan, niin…
Jos kertoimet puolittuvat yhtiössä, joka kasvaa 100% vuodessa, niin sitten ollaan samalla tasolla. Vaihtoehtojahan on monta 
.
En ainakaan usko, että liikevaihto laskee, kun ennen aol ohjeistettiin kai n. 85% kasvua 2022 vuodelle.
Kannattavuuden osalta toistan arvion, että aol tuo lyhyelle kuluja, joten päästäänkö H1 voitolliselle tulokselle, ei välttämättä.
Mutta vähän kehää kiertää jo, joten eiköhän jäädä odottelemään 2021 tuloksia ja q1 tuloksia ja mahdollisia uusia tiedotteita.
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Tuossa Redditin lainauksessa oli kyse “verrokkien” arvotuksista, joista oli poimittu p/s 18x yhtiö ja sen perusteella todettu, että Voxturin kertoimet voisi tuplaantua.
P/s 18x Voxturille on mielestäni kuplahinnoittelua, jonka varaan sijoituskeissiä ei kannata rakentaa tässä vaiheessa. Kovat kertoimet edellyttäisi vähintäänkin erittäin vahvat näytöt joita ei vielä toistaiseksi ole. Ylipäänsä, tällaisia kertoimia lätkimällä minkä tahansa pikkuteknon saa näyttämään hyvältä sijoitukselta.
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Tottahan toki, päästäkseen moisiin kertoimiin pitäisi asioiden edetä hyvin ja suuren määrän sijoittajia nähdä sama kuin pieni määrä luulee näkevänsä nyt ja kaikkien pitäisi saada lisää varmuutta. Samalla olettaisi tosin hinnan korjaavan ja näin kertoimet eivät olisi ehkä tuota luokkaa.
18 liikevaihto kerroin on todella korkea melkein mille vaan yhtiölle.
Kannattaako vertailla mahdollisesti kuplaantuneisiin yhtiöihin, no ei varmaan, ei ainakaan kannata perustaa sijoitus casea sellaisiin oletuksiin…
Ok nyt ollaan reippaassa viikossa noustu n. 50%,mutta pitkään hän kurssi on ollut matalammalla eikä ole tarvinnut pelätä kertoimien romahdusta sinällään ja ilmaista optionalisuutta on ollut, esim AOL.
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Absolutely brilliant stuff as usual Colin, I hope you’ll do this more often.
Let’s hope for the sake of @Avokado that your arms won’t get any longer, I’m sure he/she appreciates being mentioned (indirectly) by you on semi-popular youtuber’s video. I can see why people mention Opendoor as a comparable even though it’s totally different type of business, I don’t see any direct comparables because Voxtur has so many different business all trying to disrupt their respective fields.
Which brings me to my question, maybe you’ll answer this on reddit and post the link here but do you see any “holes” in Voxtur’s portfolio or something that they could add that would be synergetic to existing businesses?
Maybe something that would bring even more data & something that would benefit from Voxtur’s existing data, can you imagine something that would fit the description?
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I watched the chat. It gives good and interesting explanations about the potential products.
This case is kind of funny, because the foundation of the case is so weird:
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Voxtur makes some nice new digital services - right away many of them are superior compared to old ways to do these things around quite huge real estate business
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There is absolutely no competition - the sector is 100% stone aged and Voxtur is the only player in the field changing all this
It can be like this. The other option is that there are/ will be other ways to operate that have competitive edge also, meaning that selling Voxturs products in quantum scale is not self-evident.
It’s good to have well detailed projections and expectations about coming quarters so that we can see it quite much from the numbers if the potential is there in that huge way we all hope. Interesting times!
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Either somebody’s message got deleted (and we can’t see it) or you post makes absolutely no sense Colin.
In the next episode with Mariusz you might want to discuss the actual patent that Voxtur has for AOL, I feel it needs little clarifying.
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Käsittääkseni Voxturilla on dataa, ohjelmistoja ja prosesseja. On kiinnostavaa kuulla jatkossa, minkälaisia patentteja näistä voi rakentaa. Oletettavasti, jos yhtiö pääsee hyvään vauhtiin, tämä on yksi ensimmäisiä kysymyksiä sijoittajilta jatkon arvioimiseksi.
Oma arvioni on, että vallihaudat ja alalletulokynnys ei ole teknologisesti kovin suuri. Data on aivainasemassa, kuinka laajalti sitä jaetaan, mihin hintaan ja onko Voxturilla datan suhteen jonkinlaista pysyvää etulyöntiasemaa kilpailijoihin.
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Tässä se AOL:n liittyvä patentti. Tosin itselläni ei ole yhtään kompetenssia arvioida tarjoaako se minkäänlaista vallihautaa.
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FIG. 3A is a flow chart depicting the steps of receiving an order for an attorney opinion letter (AOL), placing and receiving an order for title data, and generating the preliminary AOL and assignment to attorney for review.
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[0014]
FIG. 3B is a flow chart depicting the steps associated with curing any title issues found in the preliminary AOL, revising the preliminary AOL as necessary, execution of the preliminary AOL by the attorney, and delivery of the executed preliminary AOL to the settlement agent.
- [0015]
FIG. 4 is a flow chart depicting the steps whereby a settlement agent certifies the requirements in the preliminary AOL have been met, and the final AOL is generated, reviewed, and executed for issuance.
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To me Voxtur’s patent is about ML/AI based data collection from different databases/sources, i.e. it automates that process which makes it much faster for the lawyer to do his job.
Now this patent is written by patent lawyer which makes it somewhat difficult for most of us who don’t speak english as first language and do patent-stuff for living.
Maybe @Colin_Fisher can clarify this?
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