E.Finley teki tosta pienen yhteenvedon mikä on mielestäni ihan pätevä:
re: J’s and Joeri’s decision to short tankers (TNK, STNG, ASC, I think?).
I’ve gotten a ton of DM’s about this.
I am posting this publicly, because I respect them both and feel that we are all part of a community that freely shares information and ideas, for the benefit of all.
Caveat: I’ve been away from Twitter, and super busy, so I haven’t read all the related threads.
My understanding of the argument is the following: The stocks have run hot, too much too soon, time to short (to benefit from a mean reversion, from a trading perspective). I hope I haven’t misrepresented their position. I do not have the impression that they are arguing that the product tanker rates party is over, or that anything has changed in fundamentals (i.e. demand for product tankers, trade route disruption normalization, orderbook change, etc).
It does seem like some of the crude oil related names have gotten very expensive, considering that VLCC rates are in the toilet. If you had told me that EURN would double in less than a year, with rates staying so low, I would have called you crazy.
Product tankers have run up, but at least there is a clear positive rates trend.
Here is my take: I have no problem with anyone shorting names like product tankers because they are “overextended”. Trim, short, buy puts, whatever. It might make sense from a trading perspective? I’m not doing it, but I do trim on extreme moves like on days that positions like $ASC go +11%. I also tend to add again when it drops 10% for no reason.
My reasoning is that in the context of a bull market (and I interpret this as a bull market), volatility is a gift. From their tweets, J and Joeri seem to be good at disregarding the noise and buying weakness which is just “noise”, if they are trading as they tweet.
More than anything, this might be an opportunity to meditate on how galvanizing a community around a few illiquid names carries the risk of unanticipated consequences. Tweeting out trades after you have positioned yourself to benefit strikes me as… problematic.
The irony is that those who are least informed, and thus most likely to follow an “expert’s” trades, are the most likely to be hurt, in terms of poorly assessing the risk. For some, the lesson will be too expensive to learn more than once. (Remember April 2020).
Have a good weekend.