Tervehdys, porssien suunta, siirtakaa muualle jos parempi paikka loytyy…
alla olevan oli tarkoitus olla vain itselle kirjoitetty tunnin ‘‘suunnitelman terastys’’, mutta menkoot ny yleisemmaksi. Sorry finglish ku silla kirjoitan kaikki muistiinpanot, ihan kunnioittaakseni niita kaikkia englannin kielen opettajia jotka paastivat lapi armo vitosella. Itse olen 2020 syksysta sijoittanut rahojani, hitaasti, takaisin porssiin kaiken fomon parhaani mukaan vaistellen. Maaliskuussa olin jo 40% osakkeissa, nyt melkein 60%, ja toivon mukaan 100% loka/marraskuussa. En todellakaan tayspainen/paivainen sijoittaja, mutta koronalta kyyristellessa opiskellut nyt puoliaikaisesti markkinoita kaksi vuotta. Kyseessa siis itselle nakemys/suunnitelma loppu vuodelle, todnak ensiviikolla maailma nayttaa taas taysin erilaiselta kun jotain pienta tahi suurta tapahtuu, mutta tuossa on henkilokohtainen taman vuoden suunnitelmani, tanaan.
Tavoitteena on ostovoiman sailyttaminen vuosikymmenen, tahi parin tahtaimella. Lisatuottoa tavoitellaan small cappien etc voimalla siten etta voisi jopa kasvuakin saavuttaa jos inflaatio yhdessa aivan liian ahneen verottajan kanssa ei liian pahasti rankaise. Aikaisempaa tuottoa ei ole pitkaan aikaan, vaan sijoittaminen tosiaankin alkaa ‘nukkumisen’ jalkeen 2020 syksylta, ja toistaiseksi poikinut hyvin minimaalisen tuoton. Toiveena on paluu ‘nukkumiseen’ kunhan tasta osto tilaisuudesta toivutaan. Motto: Elama ensiksi, raha on vain paperia, osta ku halvalla saat.
Ennen viime viikkoa olin viela YTD 10% voitolla, mutta ny vaivuttiin jo prosentteja tappiolle. Muista etta ennustaminen, varsinkin tulevaisuuden on hankala laji, eli lukijan vastuulla mennaan.
ps. En ota meriittia mistaan alla olevasta, vaan kyseessa on oma tiivistykseni siita kun olen kuunnellut paljon itseani kokeneempien, ja viisaampien sijoittajien nakemyksia/ennustuksia. Meni loppujen lopuksi muutama tunti, eli toivottavasti joku saa jotain ideaa… ps2. No comments.
My Plan for 3/4Q22:
Current status: Market has priced “mild recession” for 2H22/23, and if 2Q22 comes negative being second negative quarter on row this would have “delivered”. Could expect rally as market got their “recession”, and they wanna feel like they looking 6-12+ months future and its time to buy buy buy for next bull run. As many sectors are oversold, it further makes this case.
Expected schedule:
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JUN/JULY, buy FOCUS stocks, atm 60% in and every further 5%+ drop should be matched with way more stock purhaced. Trying get at least 70% invested before current wave is finished.
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Would be supprice if gets SPY sub-3200s too easily, more like 3400s already could start biting ETF’s like QQQ top of individual shares. Atm SPY nor WorldETFs are no touch for any price.
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JULY/AUG… Sounds like expectations and current oversold situation would give finally proper bear market rally, maybe all the way 4000s. This hopefully gives change to reduce some bad purhaces, plus collect fast profits, and sell off some higher batches. Just focus tuning.
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SEP/OCT/NOV would not suprice to see another drop down. Even without new unknown unknowns. This would make new bottom, way under 2020 tops but not under it bottoms. Personally would be time to try get all cash invested to stocks, 80%+ of those to USA/CAD.
Focus Short-Term:
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Small tech companies, with growth, with cash, survivability, real business case that doesnt have clear big tech etc competive products
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Also some other sector startup type investment, again w enough cash to pull few years easy
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Try pick good variation of future proof companies, those has realistic plans to grow decades.
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Companies on potential to use future technologies, like AI, robotics, bio, IT, platform, etc
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Atm dollar is enough high to start hurting USA companies on their earnings, and expect late 3Q dollar return back to more reasonable levels. So no rush to change dollars atm, but if little relief is coming in form of dollar high valuation w FED etc actions (loosens up) then use that change to convert more E->$. Plan is have only half year emergency euros left at 2023.
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Keep avaraging down gold miners, atm short term risk going down is higher than change for up. As with labort shortages, inflationary cost for capex etc. They may give a leg down before people start loosing jobs with interest rate raises, and FEDs mission to cause unemployment. No plans of selling existing ones, as with net debt free, 2-3% dividents, and sooner or later they boom up again, its nice balance to portfolio. Stagflation should help. Has hefty size of holdings on them so atm no rush to add total amount with current prices… specially as so many other companies finally available to pick off from main/real sectors.
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Be super picky with divident stocks, even some hitting lowballs may have to be avoided/postponed. Avoid for reason or other. Later part of year, there should have some true places to buy superior divident stocks, just keep on mind divident alone is mostly nothing without growth factor on it, with exception of some less debted flatters.
Avoid sectors (there should be way more here, but later):
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TLT, long bonds, back to rechecking this closer 4Q
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REIT’s, got my tiny bite in to my first REIT. Absolute no rush for more on Jun/Jul 2022.
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Energy/Oil, time has passed, sold off 2021 no rush back. (except some specific Gas, Solars & SMRs)
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Any consumer (non-mandatory or any) companies. Company/consumer debtness, inflation on essentials, etc.
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Any companies with hefty debt, and flat growth. Zombie hunting is starting sooner or later, and most propably sooner now that interest rates are pushing up.
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Europe, just avoid now, EU put hang robe their own neck, and companies going to get hurt.
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Finland, too many people buying too small market, with too little information. Wait late 2022 or 23.
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China, big question mark, they may have done for now their company crushing, so really it could be excelent time to buy some EMQQ etc. Long run CCP going crush them again, and again, so also avoid companies those depends too much Chinese consumers or manufacturing. EMQQ is potential, but their housing market is mess, corona handling is suspisious, and may need a external enemy to calmdown their own populations anger for goverment… has potential for nasty suprices. Carefull.
Remember:
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Fed is going to break something, and most propably screw up even more things. ECB, sad 
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ETF’s are still on tail wiggling a dog mode, way too much going on to way too few companies. If ETF selling start, and fomos move to puts then what goes up fast, comes down a way faster.
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Housing market is getting unreachable, with house prices this high on most of world, and interest rates making loan taking next to impossible so prices has to go down… but it may take while as 0.01% has lot of cash that would love buying off those houses with 30-50% cut from weaker hands before ringing up FED to calm up things… and rent those houses back. (its mighty nasty bubble absolute everywhere, Canada, Australia, China, Usa, etc… )
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PE valuations have come down little, from extream pricy, to over pricy. Problem is those E’s are still expected to grow up more 2023 after few record years. Consumers are tuffed w loans, and inflation forces them move spending to mandatory items. Companies itself are going to have spend more paying interest for their debts. There is lot of E lowering incoming toward/on 2023, so more drops todo to get PEs median.
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Nothing says that this is just short recession 2H22/23 time, with some new major unknown, together with housing market sell off, debt collaps, leverage, etc could fast change really nasty. Just remember its normally not good for ur hair to sit on corner w folio hat on head too many years.
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Somewhere around/under 2020 lows, FED is going to start new resque operation, and they have power still to do it. 2020s is not end of dollar times, even some otheur currencies may well say caboom before this is over. Sadly any rescue is just pushing w robe, more and more money is required for less and less results for shorter and shorter time, just boosting 0.01%.
Long term:
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There never has been recession where everyone knows its coming, and wait finger on buy button as ready to buy all-in on bottom. Per Lance Roberts, Recession is to suprice people, slap their face, let them get up and slap again… not something majority never got timed right.
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Not expecting lost decade as general concept. Many sectors has it coming, specially with so many companies taking so much loans to buybacks etc without having serious growth waiting to payoff those debt, and debt piling up for renews w higher rates. Going to have lot of people suprice with their 40/60 ‘safe’ ETFs full of high yield non-senior garbage that companies have sold with ‘superior yield’ to get buybacks money for boosting nice bonuses for mgmt.
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Blockchain & digital currencies are going to be important on late 2020s. Would not suprice this current crash to be ‘wiped off’ with more cash printing. If that happens then somewhere in late 2020s expect next crash, and that time goverments are ready with digital dollar plans to change system.
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AI, robotics, automatisation, IoT, on-shoring, and more robotics. With more unemployment.
Bonus: https://portfoliostalker.com:2022/urlreport/e9a9385d-27d0-433f-a860-c7c4c2c16610
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Omat viimeisimmat ostoni, kuvauksia jostain omistamistani yhtioista, ja omistukseni/tappioni.
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Lahes kaikki ostokseni ovat ns alennus myynnissa! 
Onnea matkaan!
